Six Nations match-by-match tips and accumulators: Week 1 previews including England v Scotland
Jon Newcombe has already bagged winners at 10/11, evens and 13/2 for the first round of the Six Nations, which concludes with Italy v France in Rome.
Six Nations Match-by-match betting tips
2pts Italy over 7.5 first-half points at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Over 54.5pts in Italy v France at 10/11 (bet365)
0.5pt Stephen Varney anytime try-scorer at 4/1 (BoyleSports)
Italy v France
- Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Sunday 1500, GMT
- TV: BBC
Had this match been in Florence or one of their other occasional home grounds, then backing Italy to win wouldn’t have been as daft as it sounds. But in Rome, you can forget it.
The cavernous Stadio Olimpico hasn’t witnessed an Italian win since they beat Ireland in 2013. That’s 26 matches in a row. A decade of painful defeats. And France have won 27 of their last 29 meetings with Italy, losing in 2011 and 2013 in Rome – their only Six Nations defeats to the Azzurri.
This Italian team is better than that record suggests and is capable of rewriting history as the win in Wales at the end of last year’s Championship showed. It was one of a few landmark victories in 2022, a first-ever win over Australia was another, and with six wins all told, Italy had their best win rate for a calendar year since 2007.
Whilst kicking off 2023 with another is highly improbable as the long odds show, we do expect the Azzurri to put up a better challenge than in previous clashes.
Italy had the temerity to take the lead against Les Bleus last year before going on to lose 37-10 in Paris and they do have a tendency to start better than they finish, the last-minute heroics in Cardiff aside.
Looking at their last eight Tests, the Azzurri have never been more than nine points down at half-time, and have led in four of those games. The average number of first-half points they’ve scored in that run of games is 15.25, so while they are playing the second-best team in the world and the reigning Six Nations champions, we’d like to think ITALY WILL SCORE MORE THAN 7.5 POINTS IN THE FIRST HALF (10/11, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook).
Italy have tries and points in them, something that you haven’t been able to say about previous teams, and if they can cut down on their high turnover rate, then France could be vulnerable.
Italy’s pack doesn’t contribute that many tries – just two from number eight in 2022 – and they are heavily reliant on the back-three in this area. However, the number of tries scored by Italy’s scrum-halves in 2022 is above what you’d expect so the value may lie there. STEPHEN VARNEY is 4/1 to be an ANYTIME TRY-SCORER.
Discipline-wise, the perception is that both these teams are hot-headed but the usually suspect Latin temperament has been tempered and Italy, along with France, conceded the fewest penalties on average per match during the Autumn Nations Series.
With sunshine and warm temperatures forecast for Rome on Sunday and Matthew Carley in charge of the whistle, we could be in for a more entertaining game than normal between these teams. OVER 54.5 POINTS at 10/11 (Bet365) looks very doable; however, our one concern is that the Six Nations tends to be a bit of a slow burner.
Over the last decade, the opening round has produced the lowest number or second-lowest number of tries compared to other rounds six out of 10 times and has only been the top try-scoring round twice, in 2013 and 2019.
Wales v Ireland
- Principality Stadium, Cardiff
- Saturday 1415, GMT
- TV: BBC
Will it be death by a 1,000 caps for Wales? Or can they topple the world’s number one?
Warren Gatland has put his faith in the old guard that served him very well in his first spell as head coach of Wales, and the renewed energy that his appointment will have given the group could be enough to ensure there is a bit of life left in some of the old dogs yet.
While the Gatland factor and the know-how of those selected for his first game back may be enough for Wales to up their game from the Autumn, you cannot help but think the best days of the world’s most-capped player Alun Wyn Jones and players like Ken Owens and Liam Williams – a late call-up for another veteran Leigh Halfpenny – George North, and to a lesser extent, Taulupe Faletau, are behind them.
The trusty boot of Dan Biggar, both out of hand and at goal, should give Wales enough territory and points from penalties to keep it competitive until the second half, which is when both teams came alive in the try-scoring stakes in last year’s Championship.
Ireland were the top try-scoring team, with 14 of their 24 tries coming after the break, while Wales managed three times as many in the second half (six) than in the first. However, for every try Wales manage we’d wager that this classy-looking Ireland team will score two.
Ireland slipped up on their last visit to Cardiff but Peter O’Mahoney’s dismissal played a part in that. Since then, Ireland’s discipline has been very much on point, Andy Farrell’s team conceding just three yellow cards in the last 20 Tests. Incredible, really, especially as Wales have had 17 yellow cards by comparison in that time.
That Irish discipline allied to their defensive nous will limit the opportunities available to a Wales attack that has been found wanting as it is since the 2021 Six Nations. Gatland may be many things but he is no attack guru and the new man charged with responsibility in that area, Alex King, has hardly had any time to change things.
Ireland’s attack did not function quite as fluently in the Autumn as it did in last year’s Championship, when they were the top try-scoring team with 17, but we’d still expect IRELAND TO SCORE OVER 23.5 POINTS, in a victory of between 11-15 POINTS (13/2, Betfred).
For us, everything points to a first Six Nations win for Ireland in Cardiff since 2013. At the end of a week when the Tom Jones anthem, Delilah, was banned, Wales’ beleaguered supporters might be left thinking, ‘I just can’t take any more’.
England v Scotland
- Twickenham Stadium, London
- Saturday 1645, GMT
- TV: BBC
Steve Borthwick has picked just about the most exciting, free-running backline available to him for his first game in charge of England, but it’s one that isn’t necessarily suited to how he normally likes the game to be played.
Borthwick led Leicester to the 2022 Gallagher Premiership title playing a brand of low-risk rugby with a team that chased and tackled hard and did the nitty-gritty stuff in the set-piece very well.
To pick the likes of the uncapped Ollie Hassell-Collins and Max Malins and then expect them to chase down kicks all day would be a waste of their attacking talents, so it will be fascinating to see whether, in the hothouse atmosphere of a Calcutta Cup game, Borthwick will go against his natural instincts and give them a license to play.
If so, and Owen Farrell has one of his better days as a distributor, then we could be in for a repeat of the 38-38 thriller in 2019 because Scotland will definitely give it a go. That draw was one of the best Calcutta Cup matches of all time, if not the best, however, more often than not, England-Scotland games are dour, slugfests.
Borthwick’s predecessors, Stuart Lancaster and Eddie Jones, got off to a winning start against Scotland, in 2012 and 2016, and the former England captain would no doubt settle for a repeat of the 13-6 and 15-9 scorelines that day. We’re inclined to go UNDER 45.5 POINTS.
With the last three Calcutta Cup encounters settled by seven points or less and a visiting team stacked with quality, even without Hamish Watson in the back row, we expect Scotland to be right in the mix for this one.
Since the handicaps were first drawn up by the bookmakers, the line has dropped from +11 to the away side down to +8, reflecting the view that Scotland will make England fight every step of the way. In our view, an eight-point start should still be enough for SCOTLAND TO WIN ON THE HANDICAP (10/11), especially as doubts persist about the England 10-12 axis of Marcus Smith and Farrell.
If England do breach Scotland’s line there’s a better-than-average chance that a half-back will be responsible. A third of all England’s tries in the last six Calcutta Cup encounters has come from the player wearing nine or 10 on their backs.
But we’re drawn to the outstanding 13/2 Bet365 are offering for Scotland's BEN WHITE to get his name on the scoresheet at any point during the 80 minutes. 11/2 is the best you’ll get elsewhere.
White capped a fine debut against England last year with a try and is playing with a real zip and confidence for London Irish at the moment. If the Scotland pack can get parity or better, then he should have the platform to play every bit as an important role in a Scotland success as his more celebrated back line colleagues.
Now read our OUTRIGHT SIX NATIONS PREVIEW
Now read our SPECIALS PREVIEW
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Posted at 1145 GMT on 03/02/23
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