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Key questions face all six head coaches ahead of a defining 2019 for all
Key questions face all six head coaches ahead of a defining 2019 for all

Guinness Six Nations: The key questions for each nation to answer


This is arguably the most competitive and toughest to predict Six Nations we have experienced in over a decade.

Ireland are looking to win back to back titles for the second time in six years; England want to regain the trophy they lost in 2018 after two years of dominance; Wales are pushing for their first title since 2013; France for their first in nine years.

For Scotland it is a chance to experience their first ever Six Nations title and for Italy it is about trying to avoid the wooden spoon.

To add to this tantalising mix, there is the bigger picture - the World Cup in Japan in September. This Six Nations is not just important to win, it is vital in shaping these countries' hopes of lifting the William Webb Ellis Trophy.

Ahead of the competition, I've taken a look at the key questions facing our six nations.



England

What is their best backline and can it get enough game time together?

It looks as though Eddie Jones has settled on a power game for England, looking for all departments to relentlessly smash their opponents into submission.

Jones started to set his stall out in the autumn, moving his combative captain Owen Farrell from inside centre to fly half, at the expensive of his good friend - the more creative, but less aggressive George Ford.

With Ben Te'o and Manu Tuilagi back in the frame it means the dancing feet of Henry Slade and Jonathan Joseph could miss out in the centres, although Te'o's side injury means he will miss the opener in Ireland. Bulldozer Joe Cokanasiga will be on the wing, meaning England's flair will have to come from opposite winger Jonny May and full back Elliot Daly.

Will the power of Manu Tuilagi and Owen Farrell prove the key to success for England?
Will the power of Manu Tuilagi and Owen Farrell prove the key to success for England?

It all means England will resemble the beast more than the beauty and the question will be if that backline, for all its quality and power, will avoid becoming predictable and have the imagination to come up with something different when being stifled.

Also, will the backline remain fit and in form to play enough minutes together to develop into a world class unit ahead of the World Cup? Winning nations have a key element in common - consistency of selection, especially in the backs.

In 2003 you knew the England backline in the two years building up to it - Dawson, Wilkinson, Tindall, Greenwood, Cohen, Lewsey, Robinson. When England dominated the Five Nations in the early-to-mid 1990s it was Hill, Andrews, Carling, Guscott, Underwood, Halliday, Webb.

The current crop have chopped and changed relentlessly in the past two years and that doesn't bring the relationships, trust and instinctive reactions of knowing where your partner is - all the things England's successful teams of the past have boast and an element Ireland enjoy now.

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Ireland

Can Ireland build on their outstanding 2018 and find an even higher level or have they peaked?

Ireland were the team of 2018, winning a Six Nations grand slam, earning their first test series victory in Australia, beating New Zealand for the first time on Irish soil and moving up to second in the world rankings.

With the incredible Joe Schmidt at the helm Ireland are now in a beautiful position to kick on and win both the Six Nations and World Cup, becoming only the second Northern Hemisphere side to achieve the latter.

But to do that, Schmidt has to guide his side to another first - getting past the World Cup quarter finals. This amazing stat seems wrong when you first hear it, but it does make sense, as Ireland have a history of peaking between World Cups rather than at them.

World Player of the Year Johnny Sexton will look to guide Ireland to even greater heights in 2019
World Player of the Year Johnny Sexton will look to guide Ireland to even greater heights in 2019

Six Nations winners in 2015, third in 2011, and triple crown victors in 2007, but all of these were followed up in the same year with World Cup disappointment. Will 2019 be different? Perhaps the Six Nations will give us a real clue.

With the quality Ireland possess and their exceptional coaching it is hard to see them falling from grace, but failure to win the Six Nations and, even more unthinkable for the Irish, a defeat in the opening game to England, and the doubts and questions will start to creep in.

England experienced it in 2003 when favourites, but under huge pressure after failing in previous years. They won the Six Nations, which removed all dark thoughts and previously inflicted mental scars, and they went on to win the World Cup. This is the same scenario facing Ireland now.

One of the many, many qualities I like in Schmidt is how grounded he is. Rather than crow about their victory over New Zealand to seal their historic 2018 campaign, he reflects on where they got lucky, where they weren't right. It is that level of detail that should keep the Irish grounded, seeking even higher standards, and on track for potentially an even greater 2019.

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Wales

Can the Dragon finally move from underdog to big beast?

Wales, my tip for the Six Nations, are like Ireland in my opinion - this is their greatest chance to win a Six Nations and/or a World Cup after years of sustainable, solid building in order to peak at the right time.

Unlike Ireland, Wales had been going under the radar in 2018, despite an excellent campaign. That was all changed this week, with exiting head coach Warren Gatland heaping the pressure on his side by saying they are here to win the Six Nations and nothing else will do.

His claim surprised us all, as it goes against the traditional position Wales enjoy - being the underdogs that enjoy upsetting the bigger beasts.

I really like this move from the New Zealander. Wales' underdog tag gives them love but it does not build champions. It provides too many excuses and allows pressure to cripple performances. Like England and Ireland, these Wales players need now to thrive under the pressure rather than shy away from it.

Gareth Anscombe's selection at fly half shows Wales will try to play with more craft and creativity against France
Gareth Anscombe's selection at fly half shows Wales will try to play with more craft and creativity against France

The players need to overcome those final mental hurdles and win big pressure games consistently, showing they have the guts to finally deliver when everything is on the line - when it's all or nothing.

Wales have the talent, the strengthen in depth, and now the variety of play to beat anyone in the world. What they've lacked, and I've written about before, is the mental strength and the game management composure to win those knockout games, the ones that come down to the last second against the best nations in the world.

In the autumn they seemingly solved those final problems with victories over Australia and, more impressively, South Africa. If they can win the Six Nations, or at least beat one of England or Ireland at home, then they will have everything in their arsenal to attack the World Cup in Japan with confidence.

Defeats to their two biggest rivals, and potentially more disastrously, losses to the likes of France or Scotland, will send Gatland's side backwards at the worst possible time.


Six Nations Sky Bet Odds

To Win

Ireland - 4/5

England 3/1

Wales - 5/1

France - 14/1

Scotland - 14/1

Italy - 1000/1


Scotland

Can Scotland translate their home form to their away games?

It is a question everyone connected with Scotland will be getting sick off. But it is their biggest issue and when you are building to a World Cup in Japan and a Six Nations campaign which includes trips to France and England, then it is the only one that matters.

Scotland lost to Wales and Ireland away in 2018's competition and were lucky to win in Rome. In the summer they did beat Argentina on foreign soil, but lost to the USA. In 2017 they lost both games on the road to England and France and were defeated in the summer by Fiji. In 2016 they again lost two of their three Six Nations away games. Do I need to go on?

This year they start with two games at Murrayfield, beginning with what should be a comfortable win over Italy, followed by a no doubt gruelling test against defending champions Ireland.

Scotland need to build on their impressive Autumn wins over Fiji and Australia
Scotland need to build on their impressive Autumn wins over Fiji and Australia

A win and at least a good performance against the Irish could set them up well to go to the Stade de France and overcome the French.

France by then could have lost to Wales and England, which - and I'm being very stereotypical here - you'd predict would result in battered morale, massive team changes, and no doubt some in-fighting. The stage could be set for a big Scottish scalp, the kind that would dramatically reshape Scotland's mindset for games away from their fortress in the future.

At domestic level Edinburgh and Glasgow have both impressed in the Champions Cup, with Edinburgh winning at Toulon and Glasgow enjoying victories in both Lyon and Cardiff. Head coach Gregor Townsend will be looking to translate that to the national stage.

France

Which France will turn up and how consistent will they be?

This is the question asked every year, for every competition, and it is so beautifully French. Why be bound by expectations and form guides, just keep everyone, including yourselves, guessing.

The French are consistent at being inconsistent in form, results, team selection and style.

Let's address style first. Over the last decade their famous flair has been replaced by brute strength, They are not the only nation to do this, by the way, but it hurts more when it is Les Bleus, because many of us were brought up on their beautiful running, flair game.

Those days are gone. Or are they? Toulouse and Racing have really cut loose at points this year, returning to a running game and racking up 196 and 149 points respectively in their Champions Cup Pools. Will this translate to the national team?

Can youngster Romain Ntamack bring the flair back to France?
Can youngster Romain Ntamack bring the flair back to France?

The fact that head coach Jacques Brunel has selected three Toulouse backs to face Wales, including 19-year-old debutant centre Romain Ntamack replacing the defensive bear that is Mathieu Bastareaud, indicates we could see an exciting French side again.

What about form? Well they beat Argentina in the autumn and lost in the last minute to South Africa, in a game they should have won. Impressed? well, then they lost to Fiji. Again, so beautifully French.

The final issue is, as always, mentality. The French can be so ruthlessly brilliant, but can equally, and more often these days, collapse with a habit of feeling sorry for themselves very quickly.

If they lose to Wales on the opening Friday night, then lose to England away, it opens the door for defeat to Scotland and then we can expect a complete collapse. However, win that opening match at the Stade de France, and with confidence up then we might even see a French charge.

Italy

Can they justify their position in the Six Nations?

This is a blunt and cruel question, but not as cruel as "can they win just one game?" And both are justified, as evidenced by the fact they've lost their previous 17 Championship matches. Defeat to Scotland in their opening match will hand them an unwanted record.

Maybe a more positive question is can the Italians at least find a higher level of performance and deliver that consistently in their five games?

Even with three home games in 2019, the way the fixtures fall this year makes it a tougher year for the Azzurri to win a game. Normally their best chance is against Scotland in Rome, as proven by last year's 29-27 defeat, a game they threw away.

Despite being 35, captain Sergio Parisse remains Italy's most dangerous and inspirational player
Despite being 35, captain Sergio Parisse remains Italy's most dangerous and inspirational player

This time, depending on how France's previous four games have gone, hosting Les Bleus in their final match could represent their best chance of recording a rare victory.

Head coach, the former Harlequins boss Conor O'Shea, clearly know this from his pre-tournament comments. Here he has focused on demanding a higher level of effort, mentally and consistency from his troops, rather than focusing on the win column or final league position.

If his side can compete for entire games, stay in them for longer and genuinely trouble their opponents at stages, even without a win, then O'Shea and his employers will feel progress is being made, even if it's little and slow.

Quite frankly, the Italians know they have to demonstrate some sign of moving forward again, after years of decline. They were brought into the Six Nations to develop into a world-class side, capable of eventually competing for trophies. But after initial positivity, their form in recent seasons has left their future in the competition being questioned, with wooden spoon after wooden spoon the only thing to show for their efforts.

Over the next few years the Azzurri are not just competing to record the odd win, or avoid the wooden spoon, or even for making a little progress. They are competing for the future health of both their own game but also the competitive long-term health of the northern hemisphere international game.

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