Six Nations betting tips: Tony Calvin previews the final round of games as Ireland go for the Grand Slam

Tony Calvin's recommended bets

5pts Ireland +1 20/21

1pt Ireland 19/4 to win by 13 points or more

2pts Wales -8 evens

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Having recommended 5pts on No Grand Slam winner at 11/10 in this column at the start of the tournament, I am left with rather a big dilemma ahead of the last round of Six Nations fixtures on Saturday.

First things first, the bet would have already copped had it not been for Jonathan Sexton orchestrating an unreal 41-phase final play against France on the opening weekend, culminating in a long-range drop-goal to see his side edge home 15-13.

But there is no point whinging about that again now. The problem is do we let the bet ride against England at Twickenham on Saturday, or do we effectively bail out of the No Grand Slam bet by backing Ireland +1 at 20/21 with Betway? (you can also back Ireland +0.5/+1 at 10/11 and 5/6 elsewhere, by the way)

I think I am going to have to recommend a 5pt bet on Ireland with that tiny start at 20/21, as I think they have the potential to hump this England side, Twickenham or no Twickenham.

And the upside of backing Ireland with that start is we have the potential to “double cop” on both bets if the match ends up in draw. Unlikely, I know – that eventuality is trading around 25/1 on Betfair – but possible all the same.

I know many people will see trading out “flat” at this stage is a rather cowardly act, but you have to play your betting hand as you see it. And I personally feel that Ireland should be clear favourites for this match, so the bet has to be made.

Home advantage definitely does muddy the waters, though.

We have seen time and again in this tournament how important playing in a familiar environment, with a structured pre-game preparation, in front of your “own” crowd, is.

Scotland and France both defied underdog status against England in these circumstances, and we saw how Ireland struggled in their only away match in this tournament so far against France. The only road successes have come in Italy.

And, of course, England have a formidable recent Twickenham record, including a 21-10 success in this fixture two years ago. Indeed, Ireland haven’t won here since a 20-16 victory in 2010.

So that clearly has to be a huge consideration. However, there has been a steel and a purpose about this Ireland side in their last two games which leads me to believe that they could win this match by a double-digit margin.

Aided, hopefully, by a vocal Irish contingent in the crowd, roaring on a Grand Slam match on St Patrick’s Day.

Ireland surprised me by the manner in which they overcame an early eight-point deficit to physically dominate Wales for the best part of an hour in Dublin.

They rode their luck late on, as they did in places against Scotland and were probably a shade flattered by a 28-8 scoreline there, but they are a hard-running, direct, physical side who will give England all the trouble going up front. The inclusion of Iain Henderson at lock will help that dynamism, too, though it looks like England are looking to try and dominate the line-out with their selection.

And the return of Garry Ringrose, with that low-slung running style so reminiscent of Brian O’Driscoll, was eye-catching in that Scotland match. They have coped well with injuries in the three-quarters in this tournament, and they now have a very dangerous back-line again, with Ringrose to the fore.

That isn’t something that could be said of England in this tournament, and Eddie Jones’ men have simply looked slow and ponderous in all their matches to date. Indeed, they were very fortunate to beat Wales 12-6 at home, and could easily be coming into this match with just the Italy win to their name.

They could finally buck their ideas up with such a big game in store, but on what I have seen in this tournament so far, Ireland could win this handsomely if getting on a roll early doors. And they would like nothing better than to do a proper job on the chopsy Jones.

Unibet are 19/4 for Ireland to win this game by 13 points or more (the general price is 9/2 and that is obviously acceptable) and that is getting one point of our money, for all Sexton’s goal-kicking has not always impressed of late.

England have made some predictable changes, most obviously moving Owen Farrell to fly-half and putting George Ford on the bench, but I am not at all sold on Dylan Hartley returning to captain the side at hooker. Jamie George didn’t take his chance against France, but even so, Hartley hasn’t performed for a long while now.

However you feel about the changes though – and keep an eye out for the excellent Dom Armand off the bench – England can’t flick a magic switch and begin to play well.

I hope not, anyway.

Apologies, if this column isn’t as lengthy and verbose as usual – indeed, some will see that as a blessing – but the demands of Cheltenham have left me a little short of time.

If truth be told, I was ridiculously busy Sunday to Thursday, and I wanted a day “on the pop” on Gold Cup day, so time was of the essence before I sink the first drink…

Anyway, I digress, let’s cut straight to an intriguing Wales-France game in Cardiff, where I am going to recommend a relatively small-stakes (2pt) bet on the home side at evens giving up an eight-point start.

I have been pretty impressed with this French side all tournament, and they didn’t surprise in the slightest when beating England last week, though they did their best to throw it away late on (and, to be truthful, England butchered a try at the death to effectively win the game).

But, despite some wayward line-out throwing on occasions, the heart of their improvement in this tournament has been their hooker and captain Guilhelm Guirado, and he is a massive loss to them in this match. He does all the hard graft, and his tackle-count has been outstanding.

At least, they have had Mathieu Bastareaud back for the past two matches and he has been outstanding in their defeats of Italy and England. The poster boy of fat backs is formidable when getting a head of steam up, and he is nigh-on immoveable once getting over the ball in defence. Indeed, France have looked very organised and disciplined without the ball, as a unit.

But I think you have to side with Wales here. At the start of the tournament, their squad looked threadbare, but they have played some great stuff, even in defeat, and the match-day squad of 23 on Saturday actually looks very powerful now.

They have a nuggety pack, an outstanding goalkicker, and the return to form and fitness of George North gives their back-line a far more dangerous look to it. He has looked very hungry and a real threat when getting his hands on the ball.

You clearly can’t judge them on their subdued defeat of Italy last week (they made 10 changes) but, on balance, I think they have enough to win this game by nine points or more.

The first game on Saturday is Italy v Scotland, and I don’t buy into the fact that the home side are as desperate as their results have made them out to be.

They have remained competitive for long periods, and indeed they were within four points of France in the second-half and attacking on the opposition 22 when they got pinged for holding on.

And history tells you if they are going to beat anyone, or run any side close, it will probably be Scotland.

They may have lost their last five matches against Scotland, but they won at Murrayfield in 2015 and won this fixture three years running in 2008, 2010 and 2012. And their last two losing margins in Rome have been four and 16.

I am certainly not ruling out an upset at 9/1 in a place, and the 17-point start looks on the big side to me, but I haven’t got a betting opinion having seen the sides. I’d go with Italy if pushed, but there is no need.

Posted at 1745 GMT on 15/03/18.

Related links

• Sky Bet's Six Nations odds