Rugby union expert Tony Calvin previews the third round of matches in the Guinness Six Nations, with Ireland fancies to make life tough for England.
Recommended bets
3pts Ireland (+7.5pts) v England at 5/6
6pts Wales (-5pts) v France at 10/11
As well as France to win the thing, my other pre-tournament suggestion to back No Grand Slam winner at 11/10 – a staple recommendation in recent seasons, it has to be said – finally looks likely to bear fruit this year as that scenario is now a 1/3 chance.
I suspect England beating or drawing with Ireland at Twickenham on Sunday will seal the deal (the only other side still in Grand Slam contention are France and obviously I will take that should it come to pass) on that score.
England have an impressive record at Twickenham, with only four losses from 33 games there in the last five years alongside that 38-38 draw with Scotland last year.
Ireland were one of those victorious sides, winning this fixture 24-15 in 2018 – though they got a proper seeing-to when losing their World Cup prep game 57-15 last August – and they look to be warming to their task once again in this tournament.
They tend to be slow-burners but looked full value for their 10-point defeat of Wales in Dublin a fortnight ago, and they have picked a very powerful starting XV on Sunday.
They do, however, have weaknesses for England to exploit.
I’d have been worried more about their scrum had Mako Vunipola been available, and his absence (he has gone back to Tonga for family reasons) also robs England of a vital ball-carrier and brilliant defensive operator, but as a combination I feel the Conor Murray-Johnny Sexton axis is on its last legs.
But they have class and punch from 1 to 15, and I love the fact that Andy Farrell has had Paul O’Connell in his training camp this week (I am not so sure about U2 appearing however, unless that was a Twitter spoof).
Not only has O’Connell developed into one of the best rugby analysts on TV, but he has a presence, and tactical awareness, about him that I imagine would have lifted and buoyed, not to mention informed, this Ireland squad.
Perhaps a win could be just beyond Ireland – England have pretty much owned them in their last two meetings – but I am happy to side with Farrell’s side with the start.
I say Farrell’s side but of course it is father versus son here as England captain Owen aims to get another one over on his old man.
He looked pretty badly out of sorts in England’s dismal defeat against France – though he took a big early bang in that match – and he and his side did what they had to do in horrendous conditions at Murrayfield last time.
I don’t think we have seen much in victory or defeat to allow us to gauge where England are after that World Cup final defeat, but I reckon Ireland come into this game in a better collective head-space.
Horrible phrase but I have said it now.
I was going to wait until England announced their team on Friday, but I can’t see any big changes in the offing – perhaps Manu Tuilagi will be back in the centre – so I am happy to take Ireland +7.5 at 5/6 with BetVictor (the general +7 is fine if you can’t access that price, and indeed you may prefer it with evens available), especially with a touch of rain possibly about at Twickenham on Sunday.
Be lucky.
Saturday's games
One of the most important traits any tipster or pundit should have is the ability to admit they were wrong – and the sooner the better.
And then hope you were right to fess up!
That thought struck me when looking at the Wales v France match on Saturday afternoon.
At the start of the tournament, I put up France at 13/2, and also at 100/30 without England, and plainly everything has pretty much gone to plan on the results front in the opening two matches.
A 24-17 defeat of the pre-tournament favourites in Paris (though another try would have been handy) followed up by a bonus-point home defeat of Italy a fortnight ago would appear to set them up perfectly to kick on and win their first Six Nations title since their 2010 Grand Slam.
But I haven’t been convinced by them at all in either game.
Sure, they have got the results, but they haven’t produced the performances I was quite expecting, and they now venture on their travels.
That assessment may seem harsh, but I am seriously considering closing my outright position on them at 13/2 by laying back my stake at around the 11/4 mark on Betfair. In fact, I probably will.
Why?
Because I think they got lucky against England and their game fell apart noticeably against Italy, where I thought there were in pretty serious danger of throwing it away at just 11 points up, and under the cosh, in the final quarter.
Their set-piece concerns me a lot – well, their scrum mainly, as they have plenty of line-out options against Wales – and there wasn’t much evidence of Sean Edwards’ defensive hand against an Italian side not renowned for their attacking prowess, though I was surprised to see France head the official 'dominant tackles' list in the tournament, with their tally of 54 some 17 more than the next team.
France’s record away from home of late must give you cause for concern, though. In the last 10 years they have won just 10 of their 47 games on the road, drawing once.
And, narrowing it down further, it is just four away wins from 12 in the last two years, and three of those victories came at a neutral venue in the World Cup in Japan, the other being that flattering and fortuitous 25-14 defeat of Italy in Rome last March.
For the sake of my long-term positions I sincerely hope that France prove me wrong on Saturday, but I will admit to backing Wales at -5 for this match as soon as I watched Fabien Galthie’s men limp over the line in Paris.
Two weeks later, that belief still stands.
Perhaps their laboured defeat of Italy will have given France the necessary wake-up call, and showed them they were not as good as they thought they were against England, but I have serious doubts about them beating Wales this weekend.
And this is not a fixture they have excelled in recently, either.
In fact, France have lost eight of their last nine matches against Wales since 2012, and the one success was the infamous 20-18 win in Paris in 2017, where the home side prevailed courtesy of a converted try in the 20th-minute of injury time.
Yes, you read that right.
Of course, they were the better side in their agonising World Cup quarter-final loss back in October, but if Wales play well then I fear they could ease home by a score and more, a belief enhanced by the news that Dan Biggar has been passed fit.
They will need to bolster their defence after letting in some weak tries against Ireland – I am still not sold on the new management team – as France patently have the back-line to punish any such laissez-faire tackling, with Virimi Vakatawa back at centre after missing the Italy game.
Gael Fickou won’t be too happy about that though, as he has been shunted out to the wing as a result, and he has apparently been the defensive organiser in the backs. That could be a decision that France are left to rue.
With home advantage, I have to be all over Wales at the generally available -5 and I have had a fair bet, even though it will be very interesting to see if the roof is closed on Saturday. The Cardiff forecast looks very wet, so keep an eye and an ear out for that decision.
To be honest, I have struggled to get a handle on the matches in this tournament so far, and I have been torn one away and then the other by the across-the-board, eight-point handicap line in the Scotland game.
Scotland could easily have beaten Ireland in Dublin in their opener and the Murrayfield game against England was in the balance for a long time in appalling conditions.
Two losing bonus points underline how close both games were, but Italy were also nowhere near as bad as their opening 42-0 drubbing in Wales suggested and they could have given France the fright of their lives with more composure in the final 20 minutes in Paris.
So yes, I am torn, though the recent head-to-head records suggest Scotland giving the start is marginally the way to go. They have won the last seven meetings, and the winning margins have been 4-41-16-29-21-2-13.
Delve a touch deeper though and the picture is far less clear. They have played six times in Italy in the last 10 years, losing in 2010 and 2012, and their winning margins in Rome have been just 1, 16 and 2, while the margin was 4 in a World Cup warm-up in Torino five years ago.
Richie Gray is a big loss to Scotland on Saturday as he is one of their defensive rocks with his tackle count and all-round work-rate, and he will be missed in the set-piece, too.
I can’t see an obvious winner at scrum-time, or necessarily in the loose. though Scotland have the pacier breakaway unit and common sense dictates that they have the more likely match-winners in the backs, even in the continued absence of fly-half Finn Russell.
Adam Hastings has done well in his place - the chips over the rushing defence have nearly paid off on a couple of occasions in the tournament so far, and could bear fruit here - and Stuart Hogg will be looking to be get his world-class tag back on track after having a poor time of it against England, one passage of play apart.
But the Italian three-quarters looked pretty lively against France, with Matteo Minozzi proving a handful with his pace and off-loading game moved to the wing. And I do like the way Tomasso Allan and Carlo Canna also attacked the line there.
My gut says Italy with the start here – and I wouldn’t rule out them winning their first Six Nations match since beating Scotland 22-19 at Murrayfield in February 2015, even though that is record is full of woe – but I’d be pushing it to say there is an obvious bet in this match.
So I won’t. No bet.
Posted at 1435 GMT on 20/02/20
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