Which players will be giving punters their kicks in the Six Nations top points-scorer market? The Rugby Tipster’s Jon Newcombe analyses the strengths and weaknesses of the various contenders.
Rugby union betting tips: Six Nations top scorer
Recent history tells us to look no further than an Englishman or a Frenchman to finish the Six Nations as the Championship’s top points scorer.
The cross-channel rivals have shared the ‘golden boot’ between them in the last six years, Romain Ntamack topping the charts last season with a relatively modest 57 points as Les Bleus finished runners up behind England.
When Ntamack finished top last year, he followed in the footsteps of Camille Lopez (2017) and Maxime Machenaud (2018) as recent recipients of the accolade. In none of those years did France win the Championship.
Which teams produce the top points scorers?
Research from The Rugby Tipster, shows that the top points scorer and title winners are not automatically aligned. The Six Nations top points scorer has come from the champion team in 10 of the 21 editions of the Championship, but only once (Owen Farrell, England) in the last six years.
Injury has deprived France of former U20 star Ntamack for this tournament and the number 10 and goal-kicking responsibilities will fall squarely on the shoulders of two other members of France’s ‘golden generation’ – MATTHIEU JALIBERT and Louis Carbonel.
Head coach Fabien Galthie appears to rank them in that order and with Thomas Ramos also ruled out through injury, Jalibert will get more than enough opportunities to kick for goal and accumulate points.
Jalibert contributed 15 points from three penalties and three conversions in Bordeaux-Begles’ stunning 33-32 win at Racing 92 in the French Top 14 last weekend and his kicking for France in the ANC was nigh on immaculate.
While he’s yet to break his international duck in eight appearances, his record of 15 tries in 54 outings for Bordeaux-Begles points to him being more of a try-scoring threat than any of his rivals which tips the balance in his favour as a good each-way bet at 6/1.
Who will be the 2021 Six Nations top points scorer?
Naturally, Farrell heads the betting this time around and it is hard to argue against his position as favourite, although there are enough concerns to leave him out of the staking plan at 13/8.
England’s captain has finished top of the pile twice, in 2016 and 2019, and has also been a close second on two other occasions.
However, backing Farrell does come with some caveats. Saracens’ relegation means that his last attempt at goal was the sudden-death match winner against France in the final of the Autumn Nations Cup on the first weekend in December.
The 29-year-old will have gone two months without any competitive goal-kicking as a result, and he may struggle to find his rhythm straight from the off.
And it is not as though Farrell was in imperious form before his enforced break. England’s second-highest points scorer missed a couple of sitters by his standards against France and whilst he slotted 18 attempts in the Autumn Nations Cup, he was off target on nine occasions.
But the sheer weight of numbers is in his favour. The fact that he even had 27 attempts – more than double than any of his kicking rivals in the ANC – and is a shoo-in in terms of selection, makes him the one they all have to aim at.
Will Johnny Sexton top the Six Nations points charts again?
Ireland’s Johnny Sexton is second in the betting at 9/2. Sexton finished top point scorer for the first and only time in his Six Nations career back in 2014, although he has come close twice since: in 2015, when only George Ford bettered him, and last year when he was runner-up to Ntamack.
However, his susceptibility to injury means there were serious question marks next to his name even before he limped off in the third quarter of Leinster’s 13-10 PRO14 win against Munster last Saturday.
Dan Biggar, whose tally of 49 points placed him third in last year’s competition, is still one of the most reliable goalkickers in world rugby, but his place is coming under serious threat from classy Bristol playmaker Callum Sheedy.
Leigh Halfpenny – Six Nations top points scorer in 2012 and 2013 – still gets thrown the tee from time to time too, and it is for those reasons that we’re going to steer clear of the Northampton man who is 5/1 with BoyleSports.
Could Scotland or Italy produce the top points scorer?
Neither country has ever boasted a Six Nations top points scorer, based largely on the fact both teams do not score enough points to lay down a challenge and have consistently been in the bottom half of the table.
The closest Italy have got in recent times was when Tommaso Allan’s 34-point haul put him third in 2019, while Scotland scrum-half Greig Laidlaw has been runner-up twice in the last decade.
No Six Nations top points scorer has ever come from a team scoring less than 100 points and it is hard to see either the Azzurri or Scotland averaging 20 points per game on current form.
Given the competition for places at Wales, and those doubts over Sexton, there appears every chance that England and France will maintain their stranglehold over this market, and Jalibert rates the best option at the prices.
Posted at 1450 GMT on 28/01/21
More Six Nations content
- Six Nations betting tips: Top try scorer
- Six Nations betting tips: Top points scorer
- Six Nations guide: Fixtures, results, TV details and history
- More from TheRugbyTipster.com
- Eddie Jones hopes England can lift covid gloom
- Wayne Pivac - Wales must improve in 2021
- Sexton wants captain glory
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
