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Rugby World Cup 2023 specials betting tips: Specials preview focusing on top try scorer, points scorer, player of the tournament and more
Our rugby union expert Jon Newcombe returns with a selection of specials bets ahead of this year's World Cup in France.
Rugby World Cup betting tips
Selections for the World Cup specials markets appear below in sections.
Scroll down for top points, player of the tournament and more.
Click here for Jon's outright preview and here for his team-by-team guide.
Tryscorers
3pts Will Jordan to be top tryscorer at 8/1 (Unibet)
1pt e.w. Mateo Carreras to be top tryscorer at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt Joe Marchant to be England's top try scorer at 18/1 (General)
1pt Tomos Williams to be Wales' top try scorer at 16/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Top tryscorer
Almost without exception, top try-scorers at the nine previous editions of the Rugby World Cup have been known first and foremost as wingers – think Bryan Habana, Jonah Lomu, Julian Savea etc. So history tells us that players in that position should be your first port of call when it comes to deciding where your money should go.
But given the reliance of the rolling maul as an attacking weapon, could this be the tournament to buck the trend? Value each-way bets on hookers are there to be had, for sure, and South Africa’s poacher-in-chief, Malcolm Marx is an obvious choice as he has a brilliant try-to-game ratio – one that most wingers would be proud of (11 from 27 Tests since South Africa won the last World Cup).
Cheslin Kolbe, for example, has managed just four in 12 tests in the same period. Marx is likely to have an equal share of game time with Mbongeni Mbonambi. But it doesn’t really matter whether he has a two or 16 on his back, he actually scores more tries as part of the Springboks’ famed bench ‘Bomb Squad’.
France’s Peato Mauvaka (50/1) has played second fiddle to Julien Marchand since Guilhem Guirado retired but like Marx, he showed in the last lot of November internationals that he can string a run of tries together (five in three Tests), whether he starts or not, which is exactly what you need in tournament betting.
As Argentinian hookers are the heartbeat of Los Pumas teams – think Mario Ledesma and Agustin Creevy – captain Julian Montoya is another one to consider. He is every bit as much a leader as those two, and with Pool C opponents, Japan and Chile expected to struggle defending the maul, there are likely to be opportunities for the Leicester man to get amongst the tries.
Realistically though, you have to go back to the wingers to find the most credible candidates and it is no surprise to see WILL JORDAN installed as favourite in places, with prices around the 15/2 mark probably still underestimating his chances.
New Zealand had the best attacking stats in The Rugby Championship and are just the sort of side to rack up big scorelines, and plenty of tries, against Uruguay and Namibia in particular. Jordan is the sort of winger who doesn’t need a second invitation to score.
Home hero Damian Penaud has never let Sporting Life readers down before – he came good as our 2023 Six Nations’ top try-scorer tip – and should also be there or thereabouts again on the biggest of stages, but preference is for Jordan.
2⃣3⃣ caps
— Planet Rugby (@PlanetRugby) July 29, 2023
2⃣3⃣ tries
🇳🇿 Will Jordan is a try machine. #RugbyChampionship #AUSvNZL pic.twitter.com/nHdXzkUkVa
As for South Africa’s cohort, Kurt Lee-Arendse became the first Springbok to score in seven consecutive matches in The Rugby Championship and has caught everyone’s eye. But in-form Canan Moodie might be the better one to back out of the two, especially if he gets an opportunity to play against Romania, the weakest-looking of the 20 teams competing in France.
Historically, the top try-scorer comes from one of the semi-finalists, and that’s a reasonable aim for Argentina with the draw they’ve got (Jean-Baptiste Lafond and Chris Ashton are the only two to buck the trend when France and England exited at the quarter-final stage in 1991 and 2011).
So with that in mind, the stage could be set for the jet-heeled MATEO CARRERAS (40/1) to light up the Rugby World Cup as he did the Premiership with Newcastle last season. All of Argentina’s Pool D opponents have conceded a lot of points this year and with a try in each of his last three Tests, Carreras goes to the tournament in form.
Team top try scorer
We could go through every team but, instead, we’ve highlighted two players whose odds should be skinnier than the double-digit figures next to their name.
Neither England nor Wales are prolific scorers of tries so it will probably only take two or three to bring home the money in their respective team top try-scorer markets. One good performance against Chile or Portugal could be all it takes.
JOE MARCHANT is versatile, is a regular pick by Steve Borthwick, and always seems to make the most of what few opportunities come his way to attack with ball in hand.
You can make the case for him to be England’s top try-scorer every bit as much as those above him in the betting like Max Malins, Henry Arundell, Jonny May. It’s incredible really that Paddy Power list six players with shorter odds than Marchant who is now familiar with the surroundings in Paris following his close-season move to Stade Francais.
As for Wales, TOMOS WILLIAMS is always a threat, with his darting runs from the base or using his pace in broken-field play. The Cardiff scrum-half has only started one of the last five Tests but has been involved in one form or another for the last 15 in a row.
Williams always seems to make an impact off the bench, with tries as a replacement against France in March and England at Twickenham in August, and represents better value at 16/1 than those outside of him who are normally starved of ball in time and space.
Top points scorer
3pts Thomas Ramos to be top points scorer at 5/2 (Betway)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Goalkickers are feted for their ability to win matches and to win a Rugby World Cup you definitely need a good one. In terms of those likely to start the vast majority of games, France’s THOMAS RAMOS is head and shoulders above the rest.
Occasionally, he reminds us he is human and misses – but not every often. In his last 10 appearances for Les Bleus, he has accumulated 170 points and has never failed to get less than 14 points in any of those Tests.
The full-back is a serious accumulator of points, as he showed in topping the 2023 Six Nations charts, and will get plenty of opportunities as France are not afraid to point at the posts when given a penalty anywhere in the opposition half.
Player of the Tournament
1pt Pieter-Steph du Toit to be player of the tournament at 16/1 (Unibet)
1pt Ardie Savea to be player of the tournament at 14/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt Damian Willemse to be player of the tournament at 50/1 (Unibet)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
No player currently makes more of an impact in matches than New Zealand’s No.8, ARDIE SAVEA. So while we expect South Africa to win the competition and for the Player of the World Cup to come from the Springbok ranks, Savea is a good back-up option at 14/1 (Unibet, BetUK).
One of those back-row forwards who looks as comfortable with ball in hand as much as a back, Savea has been one of the most consistent standout performers during the last Rugby World Cup cycle.
The destructive runner is a real force of nature who can count himself lucky not to have bagged at least one World Rugby Player of the Year award. Long-overdue recognition in that respect could be forthcoming though if he performs like we know he can perform in France over the next couple of months. As long as he stays injury-free, his name will be one that is mentioned countless times in France.
In terms of Springbok contenders, their loose forwards have more of a chance of standing out than from any other country given they are so integral to the success of the team. And, at present, PIETER-STEPH DU TOIT is as influential as any (16/1).
Looking at the backs, there are so many potential candidates but you cannot help but feel the versatile DAMIAN WILLEMSE (who kicks goals as well as playing 10 or 15) will have a big role to play if the Springboks go all the way, especially if Manie Libbok is found wanting at this level.
Groups and team progress
2pts a Pool B team to win the World Cup at 13/8 (General)
1pt Fiji to win Pool C at 8/1 (Unibet)
1pt Wales not to reach the quarter-finals at 11/4 (Betfred)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Winner's Pool
With four teams realistically in a chance of winning the World Cup and two of them coming from Pool B, you have to think that 13/8 is a prudent bet for the winner to be either South Africa or Ireland.
Power still wins over panache and they have the edge on their rivals there.
Pool C winner
FIJI's odds have been halved since we first identified them to be a steal at 12/1 to win Pool C.
The first-ever win over England had people piling on the Pacific Islands who, let us not forget, are the highest ranked team in the pool. Both Australia and Wales are there for the taking.
Who won't make the quarter-finals?
WALES are an appealing bet to fail to make it out of their pool.
It’s been done before when they lost to Fiji, also in France, in 2007. And they go to France with very little depth in some key positions. 2023 will come too soon for many of their players and Warren Gatland is still unsure of his best XV.
While Fiji and Australia are their biggest threats, it is less than a year since Georgia beat Wales in Cardiff so nothing can be taken for granted for them, either.
Posted at 1330 BST on 05/09/23
More World Cup betting tips
World Cup: Opening weekend fixtures
Friday September 8
- France v New Zealand (8:15pm BST, Stade de France) ITV1 / ITVX
Saturday September 9
- Italy v Namibia (12pm, Stade Geoffroy-Guichard) ITV1 / ITVX
- Ireland v Romania (2:30pm, Stade de Bordeaux) ITV1 / ITVX
- Australia v Georgia (5pm, Stade de France) ITV1 / ITVX
- England v Argentina (8pm, Stade de Marseille) ITV1 / ITVX
Sunday September 10
- Japan v Chile (12pm, Stade de Toulouse) ITV1 / ITVX
- South Africa v Scotland (4:45pm, Stade de Marseille) ITV1 / ITVX
- Wales v Fiji (8pm, Stade de Bordeaux) ITV1 / ITVX
World Cup Pools
Pool A
- France
- New Zealand
- Italy
- Uruguay
- Namibia
Pool B
- South Africa
- Ireland
- Scotland
- Tonga
- Romania
Pool C
- Wales
- Australia
- Fiji
- Georgia
- Portugal
Pool D
- England
- Japan
- Argentina
- Samoa
- Chile
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