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Francois Cros of France
Francois Cros of France

Rugby union betting tips: Six Nations outright preview and best bets


Jon Newcombe looks ahead to the 2025 Six Nations, where France and Wales are both expected to justify their respective favourites' tags.

Rugby union betting tips: Six Nations outright

4pts France to win the Six Nations at 7/4 (General)

5pts Wales to finish bottom at 5/6 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


No team – not even the great Welsh vintage of the 1970s – has won three outright titles in the 142-year history of the Six Nations in its various incarnations, which goes to show you the magnitude of the task facing Ireland this year.

Ordinarily, you’d expect odds as long as JPR’s mutton chops against them completing an unprecedented three-peat. However, the two-time defending champions are neck-and-neck with France in the overall winner market and until recently were slight favourites in the eyes of some layers.

As the most dominant northern hemisphere team of the last 18 months, one that was ranked number one in the world as little as a few months ago, it is understandable that they are fancied to do what no other team has done before.

Factor in they’ve got their two likeliest rivals at home, with England in Dublin in round one and France visiting in round four, and there is a compelling argument for an Ireland win.

A few nagging doubts persist, though, especially after an underwhelming autumn, where they lost their unbeaten 19-match home record in a 23-13 defeat to the All Blacks and then scraped their way past Argentina and Australia. They won big against Fiji but Fiji were their own worst enemies through a lack of discipline.

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Also, Andy Farrell has stepped aside to focus on leading the Lions in Australia this summer and is replaced by his long-time assistant, Simon Easterby. Easterby has been at pains to say they need to keep on improving but given he’s so entrenched in the tried and tested system that has served Ireland so well, that he’s unlikely to change too much in terms of their approach.

What do they say – to stand still is to move backwards in sport?

Ireland have potentially plateaued and the question is have the other two main contenders progressed enough to moved ahead of them and become Six Nations champions?

FRANCE have a few things going in their favour.

First, not only is Antoine Dupont back, but he is also reunited with his principal half-back partner, Romain Ntamack. Since 2020, that magical pair have come up with the most try assists in the Championship.

Second, Les Bleus have the benefit of home comforts once again. Last year, Stade de France was unavailable due to redevelopment work ahead of hosting the Paris Olympics and they had to take to the road. France were massacred 38-17 by Ireland in Marseille and were lacklustre in Lille, drawing 13-13 with Italy.

Having drawn their series with Argentina 1-1 and beaten Uruguay on tour in July, France made a triumphant return to the Stade de France in the Autumn Nations Series, winning all three games against Japan (52-12), New Zealand (30-29) and Argentina (37-23).

France have won 19 of their last 21 tests at the Stade de France, dating back to the start of 2020. Their only losses in that time were in the Rugby World Cup quarter-final versus South Africa, and Scotland in the 2021 Six Nations.

With what looks like a home banker against Wales first up, France should have early momentum. But the fixture list hasn’t fallen kindly for them after that. In rounds two to four, they have England, Italy and Ireland away, before signing off back in Paris at home to Scotland. For that reason, it’s a risk backing them, although with Dupont on board they’ll have the belief that anything is possible.

France’s scrum-half and captain was the Player of the Championship in 2022 and 2023 before he sat out the 2024 tournament due to his involvement in single-handedly winning France the gold medal at the Olympics.

The advantage that Ireland have in drawing the majority of their players from one province, and the familiarity that brings, has been cancelled out to a degree as around a half of France’s squad is made up of players from the Top 14’s top two clubs, Toulouse and Bordeaux.

In what appears to be a two-horse race, it's not a surprise to this writer to see that France have attracted support and seem set to go off favourite. Indeed, at 7/4 generally, France to win their second title under Fabien Galthié is rated the bet.

England’s year could have looked very different in 2024 if a number of narrow defeats had been turned into wins, and as such, they could be argued to be generously priced at 9/2 to claim their first title since 2020.

Debates are still raging, though, about who they should pick in the key 10-12 axis, and that’s something they’ll need to resolve quickly to get their attack firing, while the defence is a concern after leaking 32 points per game against the southern hemisphere ‘big three’ in the autumn.

Playing it safe for a pro-England wager, our advice would be to go for England to achieve a top-two finish (11/8) given they have three winnable matches at home after travelling to Ireland in round one, before finishing with Wales away.

England head coach Steve Borthwick
England head coach Steve Borthwick

Only three times in the 25-year history of the Six Nations has a team lost its opening game and gone on to lift the title, and Ireland’s home record in the Six Nations suggests England will do well to open their account at the first time of asking in Dublin.

So what about Scotland? They’ve been called dark horses so many times Lloyd’s TSB should sponsor them. Along with England, Scotland are arguably the side with most to prove but also the most to gain.

With three of their first four games at home and a core of experienced, quality test match players in the prime of their careers, it feels like it is now or never for Gregor Townsend’s Scotland to deliver a first-ever Six Nations title at odds of around 8/1.

Having their top leading try-scorers Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham fit and available to finish off the pinpoint passes and kicks of Finn Russell makes them a very dangerous outfit. But in terms of losing players before the tournament begins, Scotland have been hit harder than any other team.

Avoiding injuries was always going to be imperative given the lack of squad depth in certain positions, and unfortunately they’ve been weakened significantly by the loss of captain and midfield lynchpin, Sione Tuipulotu and regular lock Scott Cummings amongst others.

Scotland always seem to find a way to slip up, and I can’t see this year being any different.

For some firms to have Italy only marginally bigger than WALES as the team most likely to receive the wooden spoon, is probably about as disrespectful to them as requesting pineapple on a pizza.

The Azzurri had their best-ever campaign in 2024, winning two and drawing one of their five fixtures, and look well placed to finish ahead of a Wales side still struggling to find an identity. Bottom of the pile for the Welsh is a strong fancy which would see us in front whether it's France or Ireland who emerge victorious at the end of what will be another fabulous Six Nations.

Posted at 2040 GMT on 29/01/25


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