Jon Newcombe previews the Guinness Six Nations and is anticipating a competitive renewal that goes down to the wire in France.
Rugby union betting tips: Six Nations
3pts France to win the Six Nations at 6/5 (General)
1pt France-England straight forecast at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt England to win the Triple Crown at 4/1 (BetVictor, BoyleSports)
Six Nations classic in store
While it’s a stretch to say that you could throw a blanket over the contenders in a sporting contest that always warms the soul at this otherwise inhospitable time of year, the 2024 Six Nations Championship has a much more open feel to it than last year when you pretty much knew the winner of the Ireland-France game would go on to be crowned champions.
Our pre-tournament, straight-forecast prediction said as much and having put up South Africa to win the World Cup subsequently, we're aiming to continue a good run for these pages.
Without wishing to sound like we’re hedging our bets too much, any Six Nations that follows on from a Rugby World Cup is a tough one to call as the end of one four-year cycle inevitably leads to significant changes of personnel, in terms of players and coaches and, in the case of France, their home venue, too, as the Stade de France is out of commission while it undergoes a makeover ahead of the Olympics.
At both ends of the table, we can see this one going right down to the wire with the Championship culminating on March 16 with a potential ‘Super Saturday’ wooden spoon decider between Wales and Italy in Cardiff and a title showdown between France and England in Lyon.
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A FRANCE-ENGLAND STRAIGHT FORECAST would be some way to finish things off and is a best priced 7/1 with Sky Bet, while if Italy back up their 2022 win at the Principality Stadium, it is likely to condemn Wales to the bottom of the standings as the chances of them winning any other games look slim given they’ll be fielding their weakest-looking squad in many a year.
William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred offer 9/2 on them propping up the table.
In terms of continuity, Ireland and Scotland have had the least disruption since the World Cup with the bulk of their squad remaining intact. But the former have still to solve the conundrum of what to do without the now-retired Johnny Sexton, while it would take a brave punter to ignore the fact that Scotland always flatter to deceive. Against Ireland at the World Cup, they were miles off when it mattered.
France may be missing their own talisman, Antoine Dupont, but they have other very good scrum-halves, maybe not on the Olympic hopeful’s level, but Ireland don’t have a 10 anywhere near Sexton’s quality and experience, which puts a serious question mark against their credentials to go on and win back-to-back titles, let alone win consecutive Grand Slams. This has only been achieved four times before, and never in the Six Nations era.
Sexton, Ireland’s record points scorer, has been such a vital cog in the Ireland machine for so long, it would be impossible for him not to be missed. In 50 starts for Ireland, from the end of the 2017 Lions tour to his swansong match – the desperately disappointing defeat to the All Blacks in the World Cup quarter-finals – Ireland won 42 matches when he was at 10 (84%) compared to 16 out of 23 (69.5%) when someone else was in the playmaker role, despite many of those fixtures coming against weaker opposition.
Ross Byrne, his most experienced understudy, is out through injury which leaves rookies Jack Crowley, Ciaran Frawley, Harry Byrne and Sam Prendergast to fill his sizeable boots.
Asides from the fact that trio only have 12 caps between them compared to Sexton’s 124, with Crowley the only one to start a Test, closer scrutiny of their goal-kicking record this season is instructive. None of the callow quartet have a success rate above 77% when attempts in the URC/Champions Cup are combined, which is worrying considering Sexton could always be relied upon to nail the clutch kicks.
It is also impossible to ignore the crushing disappointing of Ireland’s premature World Cup exit. France, too, went out at the quarter-final stages but it feels like, and we may be wrong, the wounds lie a bit deeper with Ireland, who have never finished higher than third in the last four Six Nations that followed a World Cup.
Returning to France so soon – Ireland play Les Bleus in the Championship opener in Marseilles on Friday night – will be a big mental challenge for Andy Farrell’s team to overcome.
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As the only team of the six to go beyond the World Cup quarter-finals, England don’t have such hang-ups. Admittedly, Steve Borthwick’s team didn’t have to play that well to win the bronze medal given their easier draw, but there is a lot of potential growth in the team. Borthwick followed up a consolidation season at Leicester by winning the Premiership title the following year and will hope that England are on the same trajectory.
While there’s not enough confidence in their key combinations to back England to go all the way, we believe they will have more skin in the game than in recent years – and not just because new captain Jamie George is carrying a bit of a flab around his midriff!
Owen Farrell was a leader through his actions and not necessarily his words, but fellow Saracen George ticks both those boxes and has been saying all the right things in the build-up, about reconnecting the fans with the team.
George is much attuned to the West Car Park crowd than Farrell ever was or would want to be, and while England have been two sandwiches short of a picnic in the Six Nations of late (winning just six of their last 15 Championship matches), this could be the year to turn the corner and get the crowd excited about the rugby again, not just where their next pint is coming from.
Momentum is always a big factor in a tournament as short and sharp as the Six Nations. England have been forced to play catch-up in the last four editions after being beaten in the opening round, but with Italy, away, and Wales at home, they should have maximum points in the bag heading up to Scotland for round three.
By the time they host Ireland a fortnight later, they may believe anything is possible. Super Saturday is shaping up to be one for the Lyon-hearted, and we'll take FRANCE to have the final say.
Posted at 1330 BST on 30/01/24
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