Rugby Championship preview: Will anyone overhaul New Zealand?

Recommended bets

3pts South Africa to finish second at 9/5

3pts Argentina to finish bottom 1/3

2pt Israel Folau as an anytime try scorer against New Zealand at 12/5

1pts Rieko Ioane to score two or more tries against Australia at 4/1

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The All Blacks have been victorious in five of the six seasons since the competition transformed from the Tri-Nations in 2012 as Argentina joined the rugby party.

In that same period the Kiwis have added back-to-back World Cup crowns and suffered just three Test defeats in the last three years to confirm their long standing status as the best team on the planet.

However France, Wales and Australia have all pushed New Zealand close over the last 12 months - we might be clutching at straws - and the British and Irish Lions highlighted how you can upset them during their drawn series.

So let's take a look at how the four nations are shaping up and where there could be some value in the betting, despite having such a clear favourite as overall winner.

New Zealand

If being the current title holders and back-to-back world champions was not enough, the All Blacks also have not lost in the Rugby Championship for two seasons. Their defeat to Australia in October was outside of the competition in the third and final game of Bledisloe Cup game - the three game series between the two nations, the first two forming their Rugby Championship fixtures, which the Kiwis had already won.

Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Liam Squire and Sam Cane all make for a fearsome pack, while Beauden Barrett and co in the backs can rip any team apart in a blink of an eye.

And that's what makes facing New Zealand so intimidating. So many teams compete toe to toe with them, looking equals for so long in a game. But then the Kiwis go up a gear, a 10-minute spell that shocks the opponents, sees three to four tries being ran in and the game over before anyone's registered what's just happened.

Just ask France - 11-11 in the second half of their opening Summer Test in June, but in 11 minutes the world champions scored 19 points, helped by a French sin-binning, to seal the game. In the third Test France only trailed 21-14 at half time, but another explosive 40 mins saw their spirited effort off 49-14.

Their rivals could take a crumb of comfort from the news that Sonny Bill Williams will miss at least the first two games against Australia after undergoing surgery. But it is just a crumb, when you consider the centre missed the opening two Tests against Les Bleus, which his teammates won comfortably.

Added to this, inspirational Kieran Read returns to captain the side that ran in 19 tries in those three Summer Test in his absence. That crumb has disappeared quickly!

Expect New Zealand to win the competition again, highlighted by their 1/7 price with Sky Bet, so finding value is as tough as their rugged captain Read. So I’d look at their opening game with Australia and push for New Zealand to win by 16-20 points, which sits at 11/2 with the online bookmaker.

In the previous two years The Kiwis have won 42-8 and 54-34 in their first matches against the Wallabies. This time around Australia held a trial match against an Australian Super Rugby XV in order to be more battle hardened for this opening clash. So I’d expect them to be more competitive than their last few efforts, but still not close enough.

Winger Rieko Ioane scored five of New Zealand's 19 tries against France. He is at 9/4 to score two or more against Australia in their opening game on Saturday in Sydney.

New Zealand Fixtures

18 August: vs Australia (away)

25 August: vs Australia (home)

8 September: vs Argentina (home)

15 September: vs South Africa (home)

29 September: vs Argentina (away)

6 October: vs South Africa (away)

Prediction: First

Best Bet: Rieko Ioane to score two or more tries in New Zealand's opening game against Australia at 4/1

Australia

In recent years the Wallabies have been the best placed to challenge the All Blacks and to date are the only team to deny them the Rugby Championship title back in 2015. They are also the only side to beat them in the last 12 months, winning 23-18 in Brisbane in the final Bledisloe Cup game.

Michael Cheika’s side is full of truly world class players with the likes of Michael Hooper, David Pocock, Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale and Bernard Foley.

That was highlighted in the summer Tests against Ireland. Australia looked so dangerous with ball in hand and stubborn in defence, winning the first Test 18-9. Ireland then took control with back-to-back wins to take the series 2-1.

Ill-discipline and conceding costly penalties at key times in the heat of the battle cost Australia dearly against Ireland and they will be punished dearly against their Southern Hemisphere rivals if they do not remedy that quickly.

Ireland are the second best team in the world currently, so Australia can take real heart from those performances into this competition. But I don’t think Ireland were truly at their best, especially in that First Test, and that’s why I cannot see Australia toppling New Zealand in either of their opening two group matches or in the overall competition.

Losing loose-head prop Scott Sio to a shoulder injury makes their scrum a concern against New Zealand on Saturday and onwards. Reece Hodge also makes his first start at 13 and he and Kurtle Beale will need to form a good understanding quickly in order to release the full attacking potential of their back three, which contains Israel Folau.

I would expect them to score tries in their opening match against the reigning champions. So any time try scorers of full back Israel Folau at 12/5 and fly half Bernard Foley at 15/2 are worth a look. Folau has 32 tries in 65 starts, Foley has two tries in 11 Bledisloe Cup games against the Kiwis.

Australia Fixtures

18 August: vs New Zealand (home)

25 August: vs New Zealand (away)

8 September: vs South Africa (home)

15 September: vs Argentina (home)

29 September: vs South Africa (home)

6 October: vs Argentina (away)

Prediction: Third

Best Bet: Israel Folau as an anytime try scorer against New Zealand at 12/5

South Africa

Rassie Erasmus' men really stepped it up against England in the June Tests. Having lost his first game in charge to Wales in Washington DC, Erasmus quickly installed character, steel and no shortage of attacking flair for the three clashes with England. They came from 23-3 down in the opening Johannesburg Test to win 42-39, and then sealed the series win a 23-12 victory in Bloemfontein a week later.

Defeat in the third test reminded everyone they are still way off the likes of New Zealand, while it also has to be remembered that England were poor and ill disciplined. So, the Rugby Championship will give everyone a greater sense of where the Springbok truly are as they build for the 2019 World Cup.

Duane Vermeulen, Faf de Klerk and Willie le Roux all impressed during the summer, after failing to be given a true chance under the previous regime. De Klerk and le Roux will be key again, but Vermeulen misses out on this competition due to his playing commitments in Japan and he will be missed, although Bath’s Francois Low is a fine replacement.

With Siya Kolisi, Malcolm Marx and Eben Etzebeth in the pack, the men in green can continue to play their traditional and brutal physical up-front game. But now they have more, with an exciting back line who, crucially, will seemingly be allowed to actually have the ball much more than in the past.

It means they are a more all-round threat these days and if they get their set piece firing and defence tighter, then they will go on and have a strong competition. The fact they face an Argentina team currently in flux, and that's being nice, back-to-back in the their opening two matches means the Springbok should be able to build a strong platform before their tougher tests.

Picking between Australia and South Africa for second place is tough. Both are developing and gaining momentum ahead of next year’s World Cup. Both boast world class talents, but both have their flaws.

But the Springbok have the confidence of a series win over England, while Australia threw away a 1-0 lead to lose their summer series to Ireland. They also have a stronger pack and more strength in depth in that department, which will be needed as this fierce competition goes on and claims injury victims.

So with all that in mind, I think going for the 1995 world champions to finish second at 9/5 is something to look at.

South Africa Fixtures

18 August: vs Argentina (home)

25 August: vs Argentina (away)

8 September: vs Australia (away)

15 September: vs New Zealand (away)

29 September: vs Australia (home)

6 October: vs New Zealand (home)

Prediction: Second

Best Bet: To Finish second at 9/5

Argentina

Poor old Argentina – everyone’s second favourite side have stumbled on hard times. The summer saw home defeats to Scotland, 44-15, and twice to Wales, 23-10 and 30-12 respectively. All that following a winless Rugby Championship campaign in 2017.

Their only joy, literally, in recent times came from a 31-15 win in Italy back in November. But that was nothing to write home about as Italy are in a worse state than their Southern Hemisphere counterparts. It has all meant a change in management, with Mario Ledesma in as head coach, replacing Daniel Hourcade.

An Argentine front row legend as a player, Ledesma's coaching experience includes working with the Australian team under Michael Cheika and leading Argentina club side Jaguares to their best ever season this year.

He must improve on Los Pumas' record of eight wins in 31 Tests since 2016, with just four of those coming against Tier 1 Nations. He will use the momentum of success at the Jaguares, who claimed a seventh place finish in Super Rugby, to help him do just that and the majority of the national side's starting line-up will come from the Super Rugby outfit.

Los Pumas entered the Rugby Championship in 2012 in order to strengthen their game and become a consistent top rugby force. But like Italy in the Six Nations, although no way as bad, they are struggling in the competition now and need to improve quickly to continue to justify their inclusion. They typically peak and shine in World Cups, and ultimately Ledesma's focus will be on getting his new side ready for that in 2019.

But he knows morale and confidence need to be boosted with improved showings in this competition. South Africa and Australia at home will be their best chance of recording a win. However the Springbok look just too strong for them currently, while their performance in their final game against the Wallabies will be determined by how much confidence and fight Argentina have left.

They open against South Africa in Durban and with a new head coach I’d expect Argentina to fly out of the traps and their famous powerful forwards to be well and truly fired up. Also, South Africa started so slow in the first two summer Tests with England.

So looking at a push over try or a one metre smash from number eight Javier Ortega Desio is realistic. He sits at 8/1 for an any time try scorer and 50/1 to be the game’s first try scorer. Fellow back rower and former Leicester Tiger Pablo Matera is 60/1 as first scorer. If either of those come in then it could prove to be a rare highlight of the series for the Pumas.

Argentina Fixtures

18 August: vs South Africa (away)

25 August: vs South Africa (home)

8 September: vs New Zealand (away)

15 September: vs Australia (away)

29 September: vs New Zealand (home)

6 October: vs Australia (home)

Prediction: Fourth

Best Bet: Argentina to finish bottom 1/3

Posted at 1610 BST on 17/08/18

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