Jon Newcombe is backing Italy to prove handicap snips once again in their Six Nations meeting with Scotland, for whom Blair Kinghorn looks a likely candidate to score.
Six Nations betting tips: Italy v Scotland
3pts Italy +9 on the handicap at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
1pt Ange Capuozzo any-time try-scorer at 12/5 (BoyleSports)
1pt Cam Redpath any-time try-scorer at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Duhan van der Merwe first try-scorer at 13/2 (bet365, Sky Bet)
0.5pt Blair Kinghorn first try-scorer at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
The last win for Italy in Rome came in 2013, the same time Pope Benedict XVI resigned – the first time this Papal event had happened in 600-odd years. The wait for an Azzurri win in the Eternal City feels just that eternal with the white flag, rather than the white smoke, raised far too often since that 22-15 victory over Ireland 11 years ago.
Italy are on a record 26 consecutive home defeats in the Six Nations and have lost their last eight matches to Scotland, home or away. Take out the 52-10 hammering Scotland handed out in 2021 and the winning margin for Scotland since 2020 has been 17, 11, 12 and 12 points, so you can see how the bookies have come up with an 11-point handicap line.
However, we feel the confidence Italy would have gained from their 13-13 draw away to France in Lille a fortnight ago and the inconsistency that continues to dog Scotland – they are currently on a five-game win/loss cycle – merits backing them to deliver on that front, and will go as far as backing them at odds-against getting nine.
Italy have credit in the bank when it comes to backing them on the handicap. While they only narrowly failed to deliver away to Ireland, the outstanding team in the Championship, in round two, they easily beat the handicapper against England and France; they have been the best-performing team in that respect.
Another factor to consider is Scotland’s vulnerability to going a man down, which has happened more frequently this year. Scotland have received three yellow cards – the same as the whole of 2023 – and have conceded an average of nine points during the 10-minute sin-bin periods. Italy have enough about them to make Scotland pay if their indiscipline returns in Rome.
Nothing from the team news announcements can persuade us otherwise, as Italy’s back-three of ANGE CAPUOZZO, Monty Ioane and debutant, Louis Lynagh, is full of running and, potentially, tries.
Capuozzo scored the crucial try for Italy that gave them the opportunity to beat France and now that he is fully up and running again after illness sidelined him early on the Championship, we expect another big showing from him again and the 12/5 BoyleSports are offering for him to be on the scoresheet represents decent value.
CAM REDPATH, who is back in the starting XV for the first time this year, is another we like the look of, especially at 4/1. The Bath centre looked very lively when he came on against England and finds holes others don’t see. Italy have conceded more tries from missed tackles, normally in the centre of the park, than any other team and Redpath is plenty good enough to exploit any holes or set up others.
Nor can we ignore try-scoring machine, DUHAN VAN DER MERWE, whose hat-trick sent him top of the try scoring charts on five. In the last three fixtures between these teams, two-thirds of the 12 tries scored by Scotland have been scored by the wingers or full-back.
BLAIR KINGHORN has two hat-tricks against Italy – in 2019 and 2023 – so either of those two players for first try-scorer, at a best-price 13/2 and 16/1 makes a lot of sense rather than going for the skinny odds in the anytime markets.
Posted at 1315 GMT on 08/03/24
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