Jon Newcombe is backing Ireland to run in the tries and run up a big score when they host Wales at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday.
Six Nations betting tips: Ireland v Wales
2pts Ireland (-23) to win on the handicap at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
- Saturday, 1415 GMT
- Live on ITV1
The first match of the weekend comes in Dublin where Ireland take on Wales in a game could prove to be even more one-sided than the handicap line suggests.
Fortress, citadel... call it what you will, the Aviva Stadium has been nigh on impossible for opposition sides to breach and Wales do not have enough battering rams in their team to bring down Ireland’s defensive wall.
Ireland have won their last 17 home matches, with only South Africa in November 2022 managing to finish within seven points of them during that spell. It’s their longest winning run at home. Looking further back, they have only lost twice in their last 40 matches there. Wales’ last Six Nations win in Dublin was in 2012. George North is the only Wales player still around from that day.
Winning the gainline is crucial in Test rugby and pretty much man to man, Ireland have the more impressive ball carriers. Wales will once again rely heavily on breakdown king Tommy Reffell to steal ball and disrupt rucks as much as he can. But there is only so much he can do against a relentless Irish attack.
Ireland have had the highest share of possession in the tournament thus far and it could be another long afternoon for Wales who have grown used to getting through a ton of tackles.
Wales have shown plenty of grit and determination in only losing by a cumulative three points against Scotland and England but on each occasion, they had the luxury of playing against a side that lost two players to the sin-bin, whereas Ireland don’t cough up cards very often.
Credit to Wales, their own discipline has been very good with only one yellow card and nine penalties conceded from two matches. Ordinarily, defence coaches would be happy with twice that many. But in a way, that could help Ireland rack up the points as opportunities to go for goal are likely to be limited so they will have to put points on the board in fives and sevens rather than waste time with threes.
In terms of beating the -23 handicap, the only concern is that Ireland have only racked up one really big score in their last 10 home matches in the Six Nations (57 points v Italy), averaging 29 points per game. As Wales will go to Dublin and give it a go with ball in hand, they should get into double figures. But Ireland are playing so well at the moment it is definitely not beyond them to be more than three scores better than Wales.
Posted at 1110 GMT on 23/02/24
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