However deflated they may be after last week’s defeat to England – and Andy Farrell insists there is no sense of anti-climax – it is hard to see Ireland playing as poorly as they did at Twickenham for two matches in a row.
A draw will be good enough for them to get over the line and claim a second straight Six Nations title, but it is unlikely that Scotland will get within two scores of Ireland if past history is anything to go by.
Ireland have won their last 18 home matches, their longest-ever winning run at home, and have lost just once against Ireland in Dublin since the turn of the century, and that back in 2010 at Croke Park.
That said, the concerns in previous posts about Ireland’s inability to blow teams away in the Six Nations still remain valid, because while they beat Italy 36-0 and Wales by 24 points in their two home games to date, they only just about managed to beat the handicapper.
With this in mind, we’re going to overlook the handicap market as 15 points could be a bit tight, and go instead for Scotland’s total points to be under 16.5, at even-money.
While you’d expect Ireland to score between 31-35 points, Scotland have struggled to put points on the board in recent encounters with Ireland, scoring just a single try in each of the last two games.
Aside from man-mountain Duhan van der Merwe, who was well shackled by the Italian defence last week, Scotland’s most likely source of points is from the boot of Finn Russell, the leading scorer in the competition. Between them, van der Merwe and Russell have contributed 72 of Scotland’s 105 points (69%).
With Ireland have conceding more penalties than any other team this year, Russell should be presented with a few sighters at goal and, as such, a Scotland penalty to be the first scoring play probably represents the value bet at 5/2.
Posted at 1435 GMT on 15/03/24
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