France are huge favourites to beat Italy on Sunday, but Jon Newcombe reckons the visitors can make them work for it. Get his two selections.
Six Nations betting tips: France v Italy
2pts Italy (+27) to win on the handicap at 10/11 (General)
2pts first-half to be highest-scoring at 6/5 (bet365)
- Sunday, 1500 GMT
- Live on ITV1
France’s Six Nations roadshow takes them back to the north of the country but to Lille, not Paris. And the layers are showing very Lille respect for Italy in making them out to be 27-point underdogs.
France really struggled to put Uruguay away at the World Cup in their only previous Test at the Decathlon Arena and it’s our belief that Italy won’t roll over either.
Frustrating handling errors just when they were looking set in attack ruined any chances they had of scoring against Ireland a fortnight ago and that 36-0 defeat – and the 60-7 reverse against France at the World Cup – seems to be stuck in the minds of the layers when pricing up this encounter.
Take the previous two years’ results in this fixture to one side though, and Italy could give France much more of a run for their money than most people are banking on. France were full of their own self-belief and purring in that two-year period but that is not the case now.
Self-doubt, not self-belief, has crept in and if Italy can actually string some phases together, they could contribute to a much more balanced match. In the 10 matches since Italy last beat Les Bleus in 2013 up until 2021, when France really started to click under Fabian Galthie, the average winning margin has only been 19.5 points with this weekend’s handicap line only beaten once.
ITALY ON THE HANDICAP, getting somewhere in the region of 26 to 28 points, looks worth a bet in anticipation of more competitive match than the layers assume.
France, however, do tend to start well against Italy. In five of the last seven meetings they have scored a try within the first 10 minutes. And on current form, Italy are more of a first-half team so in the highest scoring half market, it makes sense to go for the first 40, especially as it’s odds against with bet365.
Posted at 1100 GMT on 23/02/24
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