England v Wales tips: Six Nations preview and best bets
Jon Newcombe has five selections to consider as England host Wales at Twickenham in the Six Nations on Saturday.
Six Nations betting tips: England v Wales (Saturday, 1645)
2pts Wales (+11) at 11/10 (bet365)
1pt First scoring play – England penalty at 8/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Rio Dyer any-time try-scorer at 3/1 (General)
1pt Tommy Freeman any-time try-scorer at 11/8 (Spreadex, Sporting Index)
0.5pt Tommy Reffell Player of the Match at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
England field their first unchanged team since the final of Rugby World Cup 2019, giving the 15 players who laboured to a 27-24 win over Italy last week a shot at redemption.
Normally confidence comes with continuity and England should be all the better for having a settled team. The hope if you’re an England fan is that they’ll have got to the bottom of why they were so easily out-flanked by the Azzurri attack and shored up those gaping holes accordingly.
Having seen how England’s blitz defence was exposed by Italy, and now knowing what their own strengths are – trying to play at pace and with width, Wales will surely go to Twickenham and look to give it a good go.
If that policy pays off, they have tries in them and the more tries they score, obviously the more likely they are to reward handicap backers. Wales have lost on each of their last five visits to Twickenham but the margin has been never more than 11, the line for the second of the two Saturday games.
Yes, this Wales team is nowhere near as strong as those in the recent past but they showed incredible resolve to not to let a 27-0 deficit develop into a rout and end up just one point adrift of Scotland in their opening match.
If Tommy Reffell can get over the ball and win the battle of the breakdown, an area where the Curry brothers are so badly missed by England, Wales definitely have a chance of keeping England within touching distance, and the return of George North should give them a bit more punch down the middle.
Whether they can go into half-time with their noses in front, though, is debatable. In fact, it would almost be history-defying. In their last 27 Tests away to England since Dusty Hare put the boot into them in 1980, Wales have only led once at half-time and that was in an inconsequential friendly in 2016.
George Ford’s boot kept Italy at bay and he’ll be hungry for more points as he looks to justify our pre-tournament long-odds tip to be top points scorer.
Rugby statistician Russ Petty has come up with another pearler, too, in flagging up that all 18 tries scored away from home by Wales against England in the Six Nations have come in the second half – except Martyn Williams’ effort five minutes before the interval in 2006, so the Dragons could breathe some fire in the second half.
Welsh wingers have scored 99 tries when starting against England and Rio Dyer, who looked dangerous against Scotland, is a good candidate to bring up the century in a game where the total points should be sub-50.
For England, Tommy Freeman almost had the bare-faced cheek to score with his shorts at half-mast on debut but, this time, he could be the one catching Wales with their pants down, given the way he has transferred his Northampton form to the international stage. Freeman is a best-priced 13/8 to score a try in the match.
Posted at 1100 GMT on 09/02/24
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