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England v Ireland tips: Six Nations preview and best bets
Ireland can overpower England in the second half of their Six Nations showdown according to Jon Newcombe, who has two selections.
Six Nations betting tips: England v Ireland
1pt England +6 on the first-half handicap at 10/11 (General)
1pt Ireland to win by 16-20 points at 11/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Accused of plastic energy and being wooden in attack, it is difficult to know what the make-up of this England team is. While England are struggling to find a clear identity under Steve Borthwick, Ireland are a well-oiled machine that is going through the gears again after their World Cup disappointment.
Depending on the result of the earlier kick-off between Scotland and Italy, Ireland could clinch another Six Nations title this weekend and take another step towards the Grand Slam.
All the stats and the evidence of your own eyes points to Ireland going to Twickenham and wiping the floor with England. They are the leading try and points scorers in the competition, they top every attacking metric, and when it comes to ruthlessness they have no peers. No team has visited the red zone (the opposition 22) more than them this year and no team has been more clinical when they get there. Ireland average 3.4 points from their 10 visits per game, while England have conceded the most points on average when the opposition get within a sniff of their try line.
All-in-all, it should make up for another difficult afternoon for England fans.
However, we have a hunch, and it is only a hunch, that England could make life more difficult than people expect. England have to have at least one good performance in them, while Ireland’s standards do have to slightly dip at some point, and with the pressure of expectation all on the men in green, and with the title theirs for the taking, it might not be the straightforward procession that all the data points towards.
It is worth bearing in mind that in each of the last four matches between these teams a player has been sent off. England are on the wrong side of the ledger in that respect (3-1) and were particularly unlucky to lose Freddie Steward in last year’s corresponding fixture on the stroke of half-time when they were still very much in the game.
Maybe it is Ireland’s turn to get on the wrong side of the ref who, on this occasion, is Georgian Nika Amashukeli. Amashukeli is certainly not shy of reaching inside his pocket and pulling out the ultimate sanction of a red card, having done so on his Six Nations debut when dismissing Italian hooker Hame Faiva against Ireland in 2022.
Also, Ireland went a significant period of time against Wales without scoring. After registering their second try in the 32nd minute, they struggled to rediscover their rhythm at the start of the second 40 and it wasn’t until Ciaran Frawley dotted down in the 67th minute – a gap of more than half an hour – that they got going again and sealed a 31-7 win. England need to put in a proud performance and will look to harry Ireland as much as possible.
Ireland have yet to concede a single point in the opening quarter of a match but we expect England, who have scored more points in the first 20 minutes of a match than in any other period, to go at them hell for leather from the off. For this reason, taking ENGLAND +6 in the first half handicap market has some appeal (10/11), but we do expect Ireland to run away with it in the final half an hour and win by 16-20 POINTS.
Posted at 1325 GMT on 08/03/24
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