England should take all the beating in the Six Nations, and we're backing them accordingly - don't miss The Rugby Tipster's outright preview.
Rugby union betting tips: Six Nations outright
4pts England to win the Triple Crown at 13/8
Who will win the Six Nations?
Only a moment of madness at Murrayfield 12 months ago denied France their first Six Nations title since 2010 and there is a strong feeling in some quarters that this could be their year.
Having done all the hard work in beating England on the opening weekend in 2020, France looked well set to end their silverware drought until coming a cropper against Scotland in round four.
Mohamed Haouas’ punch on Jamie Ritchie in the 37th minute of their 28-17 defeat was every bit as senseless as Sébastien Vahaamahina’s at Rugby World Cup 2019, and equally costly.
It was another slap in the face for those arguing that this was a different France, one that didn’t shoot itself in the foot.
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But to be fair to the French, it was a rare indiscretion in a year that otherwise saw Les Bleus bring the best out of their players within a more disciplined structure. After Murrayfield, France only lost one man to the sin-bin in their five remaining fixtures.
It is also instructive that Rugby World Cup 2019 final referee, Jerome Garces, has been spending time in camp with France to remind them of the pictures the officials want to see.
Club versus country politics forced head coach Fabien Galthié to experiment in 2020 and blood young players, and that proved a blessing.
Last year you’d have wondered how Les Bleus would have coped with losing Romain Ntamack to injury, but Matthieu Jalibert and Louis Carbonel have seized the chances afforded to them and proved themselves to be worthy deputies at 10.
With a physical pack providing solid front-foot ball, Antoine Dupont keeping opposition back-rows honest with his sniping runs at the base and Teddy Thomas and Damian Penaud ready to tear it up out wide, France tick most boxes for punters.
Killjoy England to ask tough questions
However, if any side can dampen the spirits of the ‘Fab’ rugby brigade, it is ever-so-efficient ENGLAND and they look worth supporting across all markets.
In October, England wrapped up the Six Nations 2020 title on points difference from France and subsequently went on to lift the Autumn Nations Cup after a sudden death shootout against a third-string French side.
Eddie Jones and his captain Owen Farrell had a steely look in their eyes when addressing the media at the Six Nations virtual launch last week, and the determination to up their game from that campaign is there for all to see.
By Jones’ own admission, they were nowhere near their best but don’t expect them to shy away from the power-based game that has served them well. Gaining yards not new admirers is the only thing England are concerned with as they look to deliver a fourth Six Nations title under Jones’ stewardship.
"Talking to a few people involved, attack is the last piece of training. It’s defence, kick chase, forwards, breakdown and then attack. I’m not surprised by that because I’ve seen how they play," said former England No.8 Nick Easter, now the defence coach at Newcastle Falcons.
"South Africa won the World Cup, and maybe Eddie believes to win World Cups and be successful, that’s the way you’ve got to play.
"In all fairness, England have the cattle to be able to do that. The riches in English rugby at the moment, especially in the forward pack, have never been so deep with the quality of player we have got. You’d be foolish to try and play away from that really."
In our mind, too, England will just be that little bit too streetwise for a French side in the game that looks likely to decide the destiny of the trophy, in the penultimate round of the competition at Twickenham on March 13.
By then, England should have three wins behind them, probably two with a bonus point.
Scotland may present problems first up and will look to catch England cold but it would be a major shock if their 38-year wait for a win in southwest London comes to an end. Matching their best Six Nations finish of third is a more realistic goal for a side that continues to blow hot and cold.
Five points at home to Italy in round two is almost a given for England, and they will be equally disappointed if they don’t come away from Cardiff with maximum returns in round three. The scrum is an area of real concern for Wales, and one that England will look to exploit.
Empty feeling
Without the raucous atmosphere normally associated with the Principality Stadium and the Aviva Stadium, England’s two away trips to Wales and Ireland look far more straightforward this year than had there been a full house present.
And while France have progressed nicely in the 12 months or so that they’ve had under Galthie, it has been steep learning curve for his Wales and Ireland counterparts, Wayne Pivac and Andy Farrell.
Neither team looks in a strong enough position to deny England. If Ireland have made any gains, they have only been marginal, and Wales have gone backwards with just three wins to their name in 2020.
Between the first of their two wins against Italy and the November victory against Georgia, Wales suffered a six-game losing streak – the third-worst in their history. After topping the World Rugby Rankings just before the last Rugby World Cup, they plummeted to a near-record low of ninth.
Turning that sort of form around in time to mount a decent challenge in the Six Nations looks a very tall order indeed.
Losing the arm wrestle
At provincial level, Ireland have been all-conquering with Leinster, Ulster, Munster and Connacht occupying the top-two slots in their respective PRO14 conferences.
But blending that all together at international level is taking some doing. With Conor Murray’s service slowing up and Johnny Sexton limping from game to game, Ireland’s attacking game hasn’t evolved as quickly as Farrell would have liked. And their defeat to England in the Autumn Nations Cup showed that once sides match them physically, they are often found wanting.
Winning away in Dublin is never easy, especially when a Grand Slam could be at stake, but England should have the wherewithal, the firepower and the depth of resources to be able to achieve that.
It is England’s title to lose and they are fancied to sweep the board at the chief expense of France.
Posted at 1400 GMT on 02/02/21
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