Autumn Internationals: Final Week Talking Points

A lot of talk this week has been about who are now the World Cup favourites, but I'll save that conversation for next week, as to do so now would be to neglect what promises to be a gripping final weekend.

After the epics at the Aviva Stadium and Murrayfield, you'd be forgiven for thinking this November rugby festival had nothing left to give, but the exciting things is that it does. So let's get down to it, starting at Twickenham...

England v Australia

We finish November with a repeat of the 2003 World Cup final. It may seem odd to talk about that wonderful Sydney night some 15 years on, but it helps to underline the fact that, despite reaching subsequent finals, neither side has reached the same heights since.

And that's the crux of this game - 10 months out from another World Cup and both are desperate to get to a level where they can lift the William Webb Ellis Trophy, both seemingly some way off achieving that ambition. Victory on Saturday, however, would be a big step towards doing so.

England are closer, a fact reflected in the odds, and will always have a chance of winning the World Cup. Indeed if they beat Australia on Saturday, as they should, and then enjoy a good Six Nations then they will be in with a shout.

For Michael Cheika's side it is not so much about looking up, but stopping the current alarming slide. Since last November the Wallabies have lost 10 and won just four.

England v Australia odds

England: 1/3

Draw: 25/1

Australia: 9/4

As they return to Twickenham, the venue of their 2015 World Cup final appearance and where they embarrassed England in the group stages, Cheika needs to rediscover that magic.

Despite the great David Pocock and Michael Hooper, their forwards are not powerful enough and lack strength in depth. Their backs are dangerous, but don't get the platform or service to sparkle. But what is most telling is the Australian confidence, even arrogance, has gone - a fact highlighted in the defeat to Wales.

No matter their situation or form, the Wallabies always believed in themselves and it always pushed them to a high level of performance, even when their collective parts suggested it was beyond their reach. That intangible, invaluable quality has, for the time being, vanished.

It doesn't mean they won't win on Saturday, as they will always compete and raise their game against England. But they certainly shouldn't win against an England side that have turned their poor 2018 around this month.

Eddie Jones made a mistake with too many changes against Japan, but England still got the job done. No doubt that was the required boot up the backside to refocus the squad for this one, and with a returning starting XV even an England side with injury problems ought to be strong enough to beat their fierce rivals.

Jones knows they cannot afford to lose and with the likes of Owen Farrell and Jonny May returning, they have their match winners and big Test animals back, while Nathan Hughes will add much needed force to the pack.

Wales v South Africa

At the start of the Autumn Internationals I had this one penned as a Wales win, but now we are here I have a nagging doubt in my mind.

Wales have no doubt had an excellent November, with good wins against Scotland and Tonga and their first win over Australia in 14 attempts.

South Africa, though, have been wonderful this year, and against France and Scotland showed not just talent, but incredible fight and mental toughness to win through. I keep thinking they are tiring, but they keep proving me wrong.

Wales are stronger than their European rivals and clearly present South Africa with their toughest test since their opening November game with England.

Where the nagging doubt really comes in is the 14 changes Warren Gatland made last week. It helped produce a great game against Tonga with plenty of tries and in the end a comfortable win, but with changes coming once more I wonder how their momentum will be affected.

Wales v South Africa odds

Wales: 10/11

Draw: 20/1

South Africa: 10/11

The fact is we haven't seen Wales' best XV truly perform to their finest since their win over Scotland in February.

They will need their best performance of 2018 to outdo the Springboks and if they do they will have finally jumped their final hurdle in believing they can win the World Cup - that's knowing they can consistently beat the Southern Hemisphere nations and game-manage victories in the biggest matches.

Scotland v Argentina

What might have been for Scotland last Saturday against South Africa. They know how close they were to a historic win and that they should have achieved it.

What Gregor Townsend also knows is that Saturday's epic highlighted where Scotland are short and still need to develop. Like Wales a few years ago, game management is their Achilles heel; too often, they lack the composure and methodology to take that one chance in the final 10 minutes that will turn a narrow defeat into a glorious victory.

If Scotland continue at their current rate of progression then all of that will come, although more painful experiences will no doubt be part of the journey. What they need to ensure now is that after such a stunning effort they don't under-perform this week and their November turns into a negative experience.

Scotland v Argentina odds

Scotland: 2/5

Draw: 20/1

Argentina: 15/8

Argentina are a funny side. Without doubt they are at their lowest ebb for over a decade and they have not developed as had been hoped when they joined the Rugby Championship.

However it is worth remembering they do normally peak for World Cups, and are hit and miss in between. Under new coach Mario Ledesma they have improved, beating South Africa and Australia in the Rugby Championship, and they would have finished third in the competition had it not been for blowing a big lead in their return fixture against the Wallabies.

They fought hard against Ireland and France, but still lost both and Scotland should consider themselves better than the latter, and therefore demanding of victory at Murrayfield.

Scotland showed against South Africa their wonderful running rugby, with that stunning Peter Horne try. Argentina can open up when they want to and so we should see tries and plenty of points in a game the hosts should win.

Ireland v USA

After the heroics of a history making-night at the Aviva Stadium last weekend, this Saturday will be a much calmer, straightforward affair for the Irish, despite them facing another of 2018's over-performing sides.

Ireland have won 10 Test matches and lost one this year and the USA boast the same record, which includes a summer win over Scotland.

Before we discuss this one further, we must reflect on Saturday night, which presented us with one of those rare games where you really couldn't take your eyes off it for one second. Quality and fight were displayed throughout, with the intensity never dropping, with a feeling anything could happen at any moment.

That 'anything' was Jacob Stockdale's moment of magic, which summed up why Joe Schmidt's side can fairly lay claim to being the best in the world right now.

It started without the ball - aggressive and quick-line speed defence and then brilliant breakdown play, not just in skill but choosing the right moment to spot a weakness and get the turnover. That earned a penalty and Johnny Sexton's composed 60-metre kick moved Ireland from defence to attack in a blink of an eye.

Then it came down to great intelligence, game planning and execution, those hours spent in the analysis room and on the training ground paying off. First spotting All Black weaknesses, then devising plans to exploit them, then drills over and over again to ensure when that one shot came, Ireland would take it.

All that set the stage for an excellent lineout and perfectly executed set play move. Then the final piece of the jigsaw, the individual genius. For all the team effort, the planning and coaching, the biggest games are won by brilliant players making something happen and that's what Stockdale did with his chip and finish.

It proved once and for all that Ireland have everything in their locker to win the World Cup next year - if they can keep that level of performance as a minimum standard.

The test this week is getting their feet back down on the ground, refocusing and being professional against a inferior side. Schmidt will now put his frontline stars in cotton wool until the Six Nations, so expect Ireland to field a side closer to the one that beat Italy in America at the start of the month. That will still be more than enough to beat the USA.

However the Irish changes will have to be on their games, as USA are determined to become a Tier One nation and are making great strides in doing so. Saturday is a stage for the stars and stripes to shine and showcase the progress they've made.

Their one loss came at the hands of the Maori All Blacks 59-22 at the start of the month, but they arrive with momentum after big victories over the past two weeks, against Georgia and, even more impressively, Samoa.

They also have plenty of staff that know Northern Hemisphere rugby so well. That includes coach Gary Gold, formerly of Newcastle, Bath and Worcester; captain and ex-Leicester Tiger Blaine Scully; and the former Northampton and Exeter fly-half Will Hooley.

However the toll of the last two weeks has decimated their squad, with Tony Lamborn, Dylan Audsley, Eric Fry, AJ MacGinty, Shaun Davies, Nate Augspurger, Mike Te'o, Peter Malcolm and James Hilterbrand all out injured, and Hooley touch and go for Saturday.

We should therefore expect another comfortable Irish win, but lets hope for the USA to do themselves justice and shine, because at a time when Italy, Argentina and Samoa are on the wane, rugby desperately needs a new young pretender.

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