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Free rugby league betting tips: Ian Millward previews the Super League play-off semi-finals
Grand Final-winning coach Ian Millward previews the Super League play-off semi-finals and the Million Pound Game.
Castleford v St Helens - Thursday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports Arena & Main Event
There are real question marks over Castleford going into this game. The Tigers have never been in the final four before and how they handle the pressure will be key.
Castleford rested plenty of players in last week's 48-16 defeat against Hull FC and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back from that loss. The players could feel really refreshed or mentally drained from thinking about the play-offs for too long.
I expect the hosts to defend with real vengeance but pressure will tell if the attack is clunky.
St Helens have already won at Castleford this season and have a chance of victory if their forwards find a way to control the game.
Ben Barba is growing in confidence and the return of Jonny Lomax is also a big boost.
The comeback of Castleford's Luke Gale from appendicitis, however, is set to be the real difference maker.
Gale's goalkicking can take the Tigers to the Grand Final but I expect plenty of nervous moments in the tightest contest of all of this weekend's big games.
Greg Eden can also benefit from Gale's return. The prolific winger is always one to watch and worth some support for the first try of the game. Castleford's expansive style definitely gets the best out of his talents.
Leeds v Hull FC - Friday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports Arena & Main Event
These two sides have met four times already this season and Hull have only got the better of Leeds on one occasion, winning 43-24 in the semi-finals of the Challenge Cup at Doncaster.
Hull make more errors than their play-off rivals and too many mistakes will prove a disaster against Leeds.
I've been impressed by the Rhinos' rhythm in the last month and I expect home advantage at Headingley to be key, Hull haven't won on the road at Leeds in 10 years.
Rob Burrow and Danny McGuire are enjoying their last hurrah for Leeds and they have the experience to get the hosts over the line.
The Rhinos have managed to tap into the energy of the departures of Jamie Peacock, Kevin Sinfield and others to deal with pressure in recent years. Expect the same again from Brian McDermott's side on Friday night.
I'm going for plenty of points. The last two meetings between these clubs have seen 64 and 67 points registered so 15/2 for 58 or more points to be scored is worth taking.
Leeds' trip to Hull back in April also resulted in a 52-24 victory for the Rhinos.
Leigh Centurions v Catalans Dragons - Saturday, 1500 BST, Sky Sports Arena & Main Event
Home advantage is massive for Leigh in the Million Pound Game to stay in Super League.
The Centurions are battle-hardened from their previous experience of getting into Super League and they will have more than Catalans when the going gets tough.
Catalans have won three of their last four games but lost 30-6 to Leigh at the end of August as a reminder that the Centurions can roll their sleeves up when required.
The Dragons have been sluggish throughout the campaign and they simply make too many errors. That is not a great platform for a match with so much at stake.
I can't believe Catalans are in this position from where they stood at the start of the season. It would be a travesty to lose such a professional outfit with a great fanbase.
However, too many players have been out-of-form all the way through the season and I have to take Leigh for the victory.
It will be tough to cover the handicap in such a nervy encounter but the experience of Micky Higham will prove vital to remain in Super League.
Recommend bets
1pt Greg Eden to score the first try in Castleford v St Helens at 8/1
2pts Total points over 58.5 in Leeds v Hull FC at 15/2
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Posted at 1225 BST on 28/09/17.
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