State of Origin betting tips: Ian Millward previews game two

Recommended bets: State of Origin game two

4pts under 32.5 total points at 10/11 - history firmly in this bet's favour

2pts Queensland to win by 1-12 points at 12/5 - 'Big Four' being reunited & changes in forwards can help them to victory

New South Wales v Queensland (Wednesday, 1100 BST, Premier Sports)

I’m expecting an extremely tight game in the second match of the Origin series.

It’s the middle of winter here in Australia and the ground is normally a bit slow with plenty of dew on it.

Origin games in New South Wales are traditionally low-scoring. The last eight games at this ground have all tallied 32 points or less.

And in the last five matches where the series has been on the line (ie dead rubbers not included) no game in this stadium has topped 22 points.

The total points line is 32.5 and unders certainly looks worth backing. It rewarded us in the first game and can do so again.

In a low-scoring game, I’m going for Queensland by a margin of 1-12 – that looks a very good bet to me at 12/5 (William Hill).

Given the result of the first game (NSW won 28-4), that may seem odd to some but I’m basing my verdict on Queensland being completely dominated in game one in the forwards and the fact that they’ve made a lot of changes in those positions.

They’ve gone for younger legs after being dominated by Andrew Fifita and Aaron Woods and they’ve tried to combat that.

However, of most significance is the return of Johnathan Thurston, the second most capped Origin player in history. He’s the best half-back in the game of rugby league.

Expected to be fit after an injury scare in training, he’ll provide a strong kicking game and also the composure Queensland need in a physical environment on a dewy night.

It’s a bit like the return of The Beatles with Thurston reunited with Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and full-back Billy Slater, who hasn’t played Origin for two years due to injury. They are all world-class in their respective positions and having the four of them together is massive for Queensland.

I believe this will be the deciding factor on Wednesday. They have the experience and skill to weather the New South Wales threat.

On the back of those four, Queensland can help quieten the 86,000 fans and create pressure for the home team.

Turning to the sub-markets, I’ll start with man of the match. Thurston (7/1, general) has won five of these during his career.

It’s an award predominantly won by one of the halves or a back row – those positions score a high percentage in this market.

If, as I expect, Queensland win the game it will likely be on the back of an outstanding performance from him.

As for New South Wales, Boyd Cordner (14/1, Sky Bet) was outstanding in game one and he’s also their captain. If NSW win, he’ll certainly be a contender for the honour.

In terms of first tryscorer, New South Wales full-back James Tedesco (14/1, bet365) catches the eye. He ran over 200m in game one and made 12 tackle breaks. He scored a try and set one up.

He’s always around the ball early in the game and is very lively with his speed.

One of the reasons I like him is I expect New South Wales to start well. They will come flying out of the blocks, as they did three weeks ago when Queensland struggled to hold them.

I feel they could well be ahead at half time but they lack the composure in key areas which Queensland have and they can steer the ship home.

For that reason, NSW/Queensland in the HT/FT market is also worth considering at a tasty 11/1 (Sky Bet).

Posted at 1400 BST on 19/06/17.