Ian Millward is backing Queensland to win the State of Origin series and has a couple of 10/1 tips for Wednesday's opening game.
Recommended bets: State of Origin
3pts total points to be under 33.5 at 100/111 - last six openers have all come in under this mark
1pt Corey Oates to score the first try at 10/1 - big danger down the left for the hosts
1pt Darius Boyd to be named man of the match at 10/1 - big creative force for the Maroons
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Queensland v New South Wales (scr) – Wednesday, 1100 BST, Premier Sports
An Origin match really stops the nation here – the viewing figures even outstrip reality TV shows in Australia.
It’s the best game of the season and features 34 of the best players in Australia. There will be multiple millionaires across the pitch.
Queensland have won 10 of the last 11 series, New South Wales' only win in that time coming in 2014.
A lot of people feel there’s starting to be a changing of the guard though. Johnathan Thurston played in 36 consecutive Origin games but he’s out injured this time. Greg Inglis is also out.
On top of that, they’ve got some really aging forwards, whereas New South Wales have a mobile pack.
A lot are expecting New South Wales to win an away game in Queensland but the stats say differently.
Queensland have won six of the last eight first games in the Origin series and their record at Suncorp Stadium is unbelievable – the only game New South Wales won there in their last 11 visits was a dead rubber.
On top of that, there are still many plus points about Queensland’s team.
They have the best hooker in Cameron Smith – he’ll become the first person to achieve 40 State of Origin games on Wednesday – and the best half-back in the game in Cooper Cronk.
As much as they’ve lost some players, their record in Brisbane and in the first game of the series, especially at home, is undeniable.
They are also a team who thrive on being underdogs – they are continually put down but continually rise to the occasion.
Some of the New South Wales players look underdone, especially centre Jarryd Hayne and hooker Nathan Peats.
Queensland also have a potential star in Anthony Milford, an exciting number six who replaces Thurston.
I’m going for Queensland to win on Wednesday.
Their forwards are workmanlike and they’ve still got players of style in the outside-backs.
Darius Boyd plays his 27th successive game and he’s the form full-back in the NRL and has been over the past two years. He’s beaten Billy Slater to the position, which says a lot.
He’s a contender in the man-of-the-match market. There’s been a lot of pressure on him but I expect him to be instrumental in any tries Queensland do score – he’s an absolute professional in creating try assists for his wingers and centres.
Corey Oates, their left winger, has a real habit of scoring tries and he looks a bet in the first tryscorer market.
Interestingly a high percentage of first tries in this fixture over the past 11 years have come from the left side of the field.
However, my best bet comes in the total points market – unders has been a favourite of mine in this game over the years and I’m sticking with a winning formula.
Since Laurie Daly became coach of New South Wales, they have averaged only 11 points per game and that’s really low.
Historically, the first game of the series is also a low-scoring one and it hasn’t seen more than 28 since 2010, the make-ups being 10, 21, 20, 20, 28 and 28.
The line is set at 33.5 and I’m going under that all day long.
As the series as a whole, it’s usually 2-1 – 14 of the last 15 series have ended 2-1 one way or the other - and I’m going for Queensland by that scoreline this year.
I think New South Wales will win game two at home next month but game three (in July) is back in Queensland this year.
Posted at 1215 BST on 30/05/17.
