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Free Rugby League World Cup betting tips: Preview of England v Tonga and Australia v Fiji semi-finals
Super League winner Ian Millward is enjoying a good Rugby League World Cup on the tipping front - check out his semi-final verdicts.
England v Tonga (+6) – Saturday, 0500 GMT, Premier Sports & BBC Two
I’ve not changed my mind since the start of the tournament and still see England v Australia being the final.
Jason Taumalolo is averaging over 200m a game and Andrew Fifita 170m a game and those efforts have been really important to the go-forward for Tonga.
However, for me England are the second best defensive team in the tournament. Near the tryline, they have been outstanding.
Overall their defence has been extremely good, while I know for a fact from talking to people in the camp that Tonga’s players are carrying a few injuries.
This is their fifth game in the tournament and the previous four have seen them use up plenty of emotional energy.
England have the size – they are as big as anyone in the tournament – and they have one of the best benches. They don’t lose anything when they make replacement changes.
I love Sam Burgess playing in the back row. That gives him a chance to be a real handful. He doesn’t have to worry about covering himself.
Gareth Widdop at full-back has created a lot of opportunities to score points and when those opportunities have become available he’s been able to nail them.
On the wings, Jermaine McGillvary and Ryan Hall have proved themselves to be top-class. With David Fusitua on the Tonga team, this game will feature probably three of the best four wingers in the world right now, along with Valentine Holmes.
England like to go to the right-hand side so I feel McGillvary can add to his try tally in this one. If you are considering a first tryscorer, McGillvary and Kallum Wtakins would be my fancy because of that right-hand preference.
I’m keen on England here. Tonga have played their tournament now.
One thing that is a slight worry is this will effectively be a home game for Tonga – around 90 per cent of the crowd in Auckland will be for them.
But England have been building positively in the tournament and I really like the team Wayne Bennett has picked with a couple of exceptions.
As I’ve mentioned before, James Roby should be playing at hooker, I believe, instead of Josh Hodgson, while John Bateman look vulnerable defensively and I’d be picking Ben Currie in his position.
I think England will be too big across the board and will beat a Tonga team who will struggle against a very good defence.
Australia v Fiji (+26) – Friday, 0900 GMT, Premier Sports
Australia have played Fiji five times in the past and the winning margin averages out at 54 points. That immediately makes the start here quite enticing.
Despite having a lot of possession of the ball against New Zealand, Fiji didn’t score many points (they won 4-2) and the Australia defence is better than New Zealand’s.
I think the market here is Fiji’s total points – under 9.5 here looks a good bet at evens.
Suliasi Vunivalu remains the top tryscorer in the tournament – good news for our ante-post bet in that market – but he’ll be in for a tough game here. On the other hand, it’s an opportunity for our other pick in that market, Valentine Holmes, to make up ground. He’s currently in second place in the race.
Australia will win and cover the start. Fiji have played a lot of Grand Finals to get to this stage, while Australia coach Mal Meninga had a massive serve at his players this week, saying training sessions were lethargic.
One thing he does very well is challenging his players and he should get the desired response.
Last week against Samoa, Australia delivered their best performance of the tournament, one they had been building towards.
Billy Slater has been in absolutely sensational form and is one to watch here.
Australia look very well oiled with everyone in sync. Early in the tournament they gave everyone a run-out but then they got to the quarter-final and played their best team.
It’s a semi-final now and the players will know they are in possession of the shirt and won’t want to give it away. I can’t see Australia backing off here.
Recommended bets
- 4pts Fiji to score under 9.5 points v Australia at evens
- 2.5pts England (-6) to beat Tonga at 6/5
- 3pts Jermaine McGillvary to score a try at anytime v Tonga at 5/6
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Posted at 1445 GMT on 23/11/17.