Ian Millward has enjoyed a superbly profitable Rugby World Cup and now takes a close look at Saturday's final as England take on the might of Australia.
Australia v England (+18) - Saturday, 0900 GMT, BBC One & Premier Sports
In my eyes these are the two best teams in the tournament and this is a true final. This England side is very well equipped to take the match to the wire on the back of a very strong pack of forwards and a powerful bench.
Gareth Widdop is showing great skill from full-back to create chances and the two wingers, Ryan Hall and Jermaine McGillvary, have been outstanding in terms of returning the ball and taking their opportunities.
My only issue with Wayne Bennett’s side is historically, in the last 10 minutes of games against Australia, they’ve come up short. Usually a Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk or Cameron Smith does something to take the game away for them.
Bennett has been taking the pressure off his side this week. I’ve spoken to a couple of the players and they’ve been told to go out there, enjoy themselves and have been congratulated on getting this far.
They’ll take confidence from the first meeting between these two sides which finished 18-4 to Australia – but this included an interception try on the hooter.
It will be tight again and I’m siding with the draw-Australia double result.
The most impressive part of England’s game is their defence but the last 20 minutes last week could have taken a lot out of them. It was draining physically and mentally. They’ve had a lot of travel too - Melbourne to New Zealand and now to Brisbane. These are huge distances.
In contrast Australia have been settled in Brisbane for weeks now and had a straightforward semi-final win last week.
England need to score points to win this – against the best defensive side in the competition. They need to take all the chances they create and build pressure.
Australia will have done their homework and I expect them to target the England left-hand side where Luke Gale and John Bateman could be exposed. Kevin Brown and his potential fatigue is another angle they may look to exploit.
For that reason I like Dane Gagai and Will Chambers as bets for first tryscorer.
As for man of the match, I like Billy Slater who has been outstanding all tournament. He’s a great bet to score any time here too. I’m also under total points at 40.5 – if England’s petrol tank doesn’t empty they’ll hang in there on the back of a huge pack and a good bench.
I’m taking Australia to win it – but England with the start of 18 points. Enjoy the final. It should be a cracker.
Recommended bets:
1pt draw/Australia HT/FT at 20/1
2.75pts under 40.5pts at 10/11
2pts Billy Slater to score anytime at evens
1pt Slater to be official MOTM at 4/1
1.25pts Dane Gagai to score the first try at 8/1
0.75pt Will Chambers to score the first try at 12/1
Posted at 1205 GMT on 30/11/17.
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