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Super League betting tips: Ian Millward weekend preview
Ian Millward picks out his best Super League bets and looks at what Warrington need to do to break their losing streak.
Warrington have been one of the stories of the season so far – but losing your first six games isn’t how they would have been wanting to make headlines.
There are a lot of reasons why you can get off track but I think things aren’t going well in the dressing room at the moment.
In terms of correcting things, the first thing from a coaching point of view is you’ve got to simplify it – don’t complicate anything for the players.
This is because of a lack of confidence among the players and there’s often anxiety too.
Players can sometimes try too hard by pushing a pass and not getting into a rhythm.
There’s often talk about training harder and working harder but sometimes it’s better to reduce workload and freshen up mentally.
What you have to do is you’ve got to give the players confidence and get them to support each other. It’s a job for the staff and the players.
They have another tough game this week against second-placed Hull but, as I outline below, there are reasons why they can finally grab their first victory this week.
Here’s my look at this week’s round of Super League games, plus some in the NRL:
Recommended bets: Super League
Salford (+4) v St Helens - Thursday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports 2
Salford have Junior Sa’u out. In contrast, the inclusion of Jonny Lomax adds to Saints’ spine. They now have Matty Smith back and his presence is massive for them.
His ability to create some composure and direct play is something which has sadly been missing.
Salford have some attack in them but I liked St Helens’ attack last week and, more importantly, the way they defended (v Warrington).
Saints have an unbelievable record against Salford. The Red Devils did manage to beat them once last year but I expect that great record to be strengthened in this one.
The spine of their half-back, hooker, five-eighth and full-back will be the difference here – Saints are my best bet of the round and I take them to win and cover the start.
Castleford v Huddersfield (+20) – Friday, 2000 BST
I’m still extremely disappointed with Huddersfield – their defence has been awful. They are running last in the league on defence – it’s just too flimsy.
To expect to win a game against a Castleford team who have so much depth, putting pressure on players to perform, isn’t realistic.
Cas have a really good structure. Everyone knows their role and there’s real cohesion for everyone to play their part in attack – that’s been very impressive.
This is the team who have scored the most points against the one to have conceded the most. And on top of that, Cas are the second-best defensive team in Super League so far.
I expect Castleford to win – their attack will batter the Huddersfield defence – and they can also cover the handicap.
Leeds v Wigan (+2) – Friday, 2000 BST, Sky Sports 2
Even with some key players out, the defence will be key to Wigan’s hope of victory here.
Last week they lost to Hull but they are the form team at the moment and I expect Wigan to go to Headingley and do well.
Leeds are on a winning run and it’s been a while since you could say that; they’ve now won their last three.
Key players in key positions have returned for Leeds in the last few weeks but Wigan will put plenty of pressure on them.
I’ll take Wigan to win and cover here.
Warrington v Hull (scr) – Saturday, 1500 BST
Last year Warrington, defensively, were a top-two club. This season they are the third worst defensive team in Super League.
Last year they also had the best attacking record in the competition but now they have the worst attacking record – they’ve only scored 78 points in six games which is incredible.
These two played four times last year and Hull won three of the four and obviously one of those was the Challenge Cup final. They are the best defensive team in Super League at the moment and have been very impressive with their consistency.
Yes, Warrington have been really poor but one thing I saw last week is they are trying really hard.
They are running without a bit of luck at the moment and being at home they might be able to break the shackles.
They've got the bulk of their players back and some probably needed the run last week.
They are getting a small start at home in places and given I don’t think they are too far off it may be worth backing Warrington to win this.
Leigh v Widnes (+10) – Saturday, 1600 BST
I’m really shocked with the start Widnes get here – you wouldn’t have believed it at the start of the year.
You look at the Widnes team at the moment and you feel the players’ ability has decreased.
In terms of offensive qualities, they’ve scored just 78 points – that’s the lowest alongside Warrington. They can’t score points and they are also second to Huddersfield when it comes to conceding points.
They are normally a team who play better at home then away but their home form has also been poor of late.
However, my problem with Leigh is they’ve had a lot of tough games. If mentally they see this as a gimme and start low, they could be in for a tough afternoon.
For that reason I think Leigh can win but Widnes have a chance of covering here.
Catalans v Wakefield (+12) – Saturday, 1700 BST, Sky Sports 3
Catalans have now lost four in a row. They’ve had some injuries which haven’t helped but another team but there’s no doubt they are another team to have lost their way after starting the season so promisingly.
Wakefield have won three of their last four and their coach (Chris Chester) has just signed a new deal which gives confidence to the players in the week.
It’s quite a big start Wakefield are getting and I can see Sam Williams having a good game here. He had some time with Catalans and knows what to expect over there.
I’ll back Wakefield to cover with them being a really gritty team in the first half of games with their good kicking game.
NRL
Sydney v Manly (+8) – Friday, 0800 BST, Premier Sports
The Roosters are undefeated but Manly have won their last two and I’m going for them here.
I’ve never seen their high-pressure half-back Dan Cherry-Evans play as well as he’s doing right now and their spine of full-back, the two halves and hooker are playing very well.
The return of some forwards has also benefitted the halves.
I like Manly with the start. Weather conditions in Sydney are expected to be wet this weekend so I can see not a lot of points being scored.
Melbourne v Penrith (+4) – Saturday, 0930 BST, Premier Sports
Last week Melbourne had some key players out and still found a way to win – that’s the way they are.
They have the best hooker and half-back in Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk and know how to get over the line.
Melbourne have won 16 of their last 17 meetings with Penrith – a pretty impressive record – and at present they are the most professional team in the NRL.
I expect them to win and cover.
New Zealand v Gold Coast (+6) – Sunday, 0500 BST, Premier Sports
The Warriors have started poorly with only one victory and Gold Coast have a good interstate record for covering – they’ve covered the start in 14 of their last 19 interstate games and seven of the last eight.
Even though they were beaten by the Dragons last week, their performance was more impressive than the scoreline (26-12) indicates. They had plenty of the ball and Kieran Foran should be back this week – he missed out after injuring his hamstring in the warm-up last week.
They were very lateral in that match and may go more direct this week. If so, they will be in the battle here.
New Zealand to win and cover for me in this one.
Posted at 1240 BST on 30/03/17.