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Super League betting tips: Ian Millward's match preview
Super League winner Ian Millward previews this week's games with Warrington his strongest fancy.
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Castleford v Leeds (+10) – Thursday, 2000 GMT, Sky Sports 2
The Tigers have won their last four games in a row against Leeds, who have been known as ‘Big Brother’ in years gone by. Not now. In their last meeting Cas put 50 points on Leeds.
There are a couple of interesting team changes which could have a big effect.
Rangi Chase is out for Cas. He can be inconsistent but he’s worked very hard on his partnership with Luke Gale, who has been the standout half-back in the early rounds of the Super League season.
Leeds have Carl Ablett and Mitch Garbutt missing and have doubts over a couple of other players.
I’m really impressed with Castleford’s attack at the moment – they look really fluent and their 74 points so far is the most in two games. The big question is can they keep it up with Chase out?
I’m going to say yes and go for Cas here. It will be a lot tougher game for them to score in, damp conditions are expected and it’s a tight ground.
I’ve not been overly impressed by Leeds in the first few games but they have won two out of three. I just think Cas are showing more in attack, look a bit more fluent and have more obvious ways to score points. Cas to win and cover.
Huddersfield (+6) v Hull - Thursday, 2000 GMT
Both teams have forwards out which could have a massive effect on them.
Hull have their captain, Gareth Ellis, and big front-rower Liam Watts sidelined. The good news is Albert Kelly is back. He’s a free spirit but his play suits Hull, who need his creativity and spark after the first couple of rounds.
Huddersfield have four forwards out from their last game and that’s massive. The have won four of their last five against Hull and predominantly they’ve been games where points are scored.
However, I’m not a big fan of Huddersfield at the moment. They do score points but defensively they’re struggling to ease the pressure.
I’m concerned they are already averaging 20 points a game against and I’m going to go for Hull here – they’ve conceded 12 points per game.
They could do with a bit more in attack but Kelly’s return gives them a spark – I take them to win and cover in this one.
St Helens v Wakefield (+12) – Friday, 2000 GMT, Sky Sports 3
I’m keen on St Helens in this game for a couple of reasons.
They have an impressive record in this fixture, winning the last seven in a row against Wakefield and that’s got to be a big advantage here.
The only problem is in their first three games they’ve struggled to score points, averaging only 11 per game which is very unlike St Helens.
What has been good is the defence and last week they did create a lot of opportunities but were unable to finish them.
However, Wakefield are struggling to score too and for me Saints are one of the best bets of the weekend; I think they will break out in this game.
They look to have a lot better defence and they will give them a good chance of covering the handicap.
Wigan v Leigh (+18) – Friday, 2000 GMT
Leigh get a big start here but people have got to be careful – this is a real local derby and there will be a massive atmosphere. Coming off their first win last week, Leigh will be buzzing.
That said, I’ve been really impressed by Wigan. In particular, Thomas Leuluai has had a massive effect already.
The attack has got a lot more fluency in it than last year. Look at the points scored – after two games they are averaging 27 per game which is massive compared to last year when they were one of the worst attacking teams.
They also had the best defence last season but they’ve added to the attack while managing to replicate the defensive solidity.
In official games, Wigan are on a seven-game winning run against Leigh.
The Centurions have made some tough calls over their team but away from home, at a ground with big open spaces, and up against a superior defence, they will find it a lot tougher to score points.
I just think Wigan will score a lot in the last 20 minutes and I take them to win and cover here.
Salford (+8) v Warrington – Saturday, 1500 GMT
For the best bet of the round, I’m really keen on Warrington. For seven games in a row, they haven’t been beaten by Salford. The majority have been high-scoring games too.
Warrington need to win desperately. They’ve only played the two league games but have yet to win.
Salford have been quite impressive in the three games so far in scoring points but they’ve also been leaking points.
I think Warrington’s forwards will be too strong defensively up the middle of the ruck.
Daryl Clark can have a field day and the return of Kurt Gidley gives them a good advantage in that ruck area.
Gidley’s presence plus their strong historical record against Salford makes them the bet of the round. Warrington should be way too good here and can win and cover.
I'll put them in a double with Saints which pays 3/1 with William Hill.
Catalans v Widnes (+18) – Saturday, 1700 GMT, Sky Sports 3
Catalans normally start the year very well and that’s been the case again with two wins from two games so far.
It’s come on the back of some better defence – they’ve never had a problem scoring points.
Greg Bird has been outstanding and has brought real hunger to that defence.
Catalans won twice at home to Widnes last season and I just think they’re a better team. Widnes lack size in their forwards and their halves are struggling at the moment to create cohesion with their team-mates.
It’s all there for Catalans to win this game and they look one of the better bets of the round as they look to make it three from three in this game.
The Dragons will be too strong and while the start is a big one I take them to cover.
NRL
Canterbury v Melbourne - Friday, 0700 GMT, Premier Sports
Storm have an unbelievable record in opening games of the season – they’ve won eight of their last nine in round one.
Canterbury though have won the last six against Storm so this game is going to be a cliff-hanger.
I’d encourage people to go under on total points. I think this will be a really low-scoring game and there’s really not much between the teams. If pushed, I’d probably go for Melbourne but under on total points is the big play in this one.
North Queensland v Canberra – Saturday, 0800 GMT, Premier Sports
North Queensland normally start the season red hot at home but they are without a couple of big forwards.
Canberra are going in a bit underdone and will improve as the weeks go on. Elliott Whitehead, the second row, is playing in the centres which is obviously a big change.
It is very hot and humid weather-wise at this stage of the year and that could tire the Canberra players.
One of the big stats is when North Queensland are a home favourite by 6.5 points or more, they have covered in eight of the last nine games – that’s a really sensational record at home.
With Johnathan Thurston leading them on a warm night, fitness will be a big factor and North Queensland will be that bit stronger.
New Zealand v Newcastle – Sunday, 0300 GMT, Premier Sports
Newcastle have a very big start but their team is definitely a work in progress. They have a lot of young guys and a lot of new guys too and I think they will be very vulnerable early on.
The Warriors have won just one of their last nine round-one games but they are now under new coach Stephen Kearney and Shaun Johnson has been outstanding in the warm-up games.
I think they’ll have a real focus to get their first win of the year and can cover the start.
Posted at 1400 GMT on 02/03/17.