Fresh from an opening weekend profit, Super League-winning coach Ian Millward previews the second round of group matches in the Rugby League World Cup with England tipped for a big win.
New Zealand v Scotland (+48) – Saturday, 0400 GMT, Premier Sports
This is a bit of revenge game for New Zealand, who only drew with Scotland in last year’s Four Nations in Workington.
Scotland have four NRL players who played that night ruled out for this one though.
The Scots have gone from the heat and humidity of Cairns to Christchurch which is some massive travel.
They rarely looked like scoring last week against Tonga (losing 50-4) and defensively they were just so poor and could have conceded many more points.
New Zealand have had very little travel and will rotate their squad. Good players come in though and I’m going for them to win and cover the start.
Samoa (+12) v Tonga – Saturday, 0630 GMT, Premier Sports/FreeSports
Samoa have won both of the last two meetings between the two countries, the most recent being an 18-6 success last year.
Tonga have got new players in since with Jason Taumalolo, Andrew Fifita and Michael Jennings having come into the squad.
As much as they were outstanding in game one, Scotland defensively were very poor.
Samoa played New Zealand, in a much better quality game. The scoreline (they lost 38-8) flattered Samoa but they will improve as a result of that run-out.
There’s a chance of some wet weather in this game and, also taking into account their good record v Tonga, I think Samoa can cover the start.
I’d also expect total points to be under the 38.5 mark – this could be a dour game.
England v Lebanon (+32) – Saturday, 0900 GMT, BBC Two/Premier Sports
The big thing to come out of England’s opening game was how they played defensively. Also, the influence of James Roby had when he came on.
He was really direct with his running style and he really tested Australia’s forwards when running the ball. England looked much better when he came on and Josh Hodgson went off the field.
I’d expect Roby to start and both he and England as a whole can cause Lebanon some problems. They have some big forwards but are not great defensively.
I think England will be too good in this game. Lebanon had their Grand Final last week and won it (beating France). If England have the same attitude in defence as last week they will go really well here.
I said in last week’s previews that I thought England needed the game against Australia. They will have better cohesion this week and I expect them to win and cover.
A bet I do like is for winger Jermaine McGillvary to score two or more tries. England are set for a big win here and so he should get chances. 6/5 looks a fair price about a man who did find the line against Australia last week.
Italy v USA (+20) – Sunday, 0600 GMT, FreeSports
USA were really poor in their last game and could have been beaten by far more than they were (they lost 58-12 to Fiji).
They are inexperienced, lack size and defensively lack cohesion.
Italy were beaten themselves but were unlucky, losing both half-backs – one (Terry Campese) prior to kick-off and one (Jack Johns) during the first half. They really struggled without them.
The good news is Campese returns for this one. He’s an old, experienced campaigner and will organise, which Italy really need.
On the back of that, James Tedesco will likely move from full-back to five-eighth. If that happens, it will make them better – he’s their best player.
I like Tedesco to score two or more tries but was hoping for a bit more than 6/4.
Overall, I think Italy will cover the start despite this week’s off-field distractions which saw two team-mates involved in a bar brawl.
I think that will make them better and Tedesco, one of those reported to be involved, will want to try to step up this week and make headlines for the right reasons.
Papua New Guinea v Ireland (+18) – Sunday, 0600 GMT, Premier Sports
PNG only conceded one try last week which was outstanding, while they also scored 50 points against Wales.
They have plenty in their favour coming into this one. They haven’t had to travel, are used to the hot and humid conditions and will have another sell-out crowd behind them – last week the fans were outstanding.
Ireland must travel after a tough game against Italy. They are more experienced than Wales so I do expect them to handle things a bit better.
Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook impressed last week. He ran over 200m in the game so keep an eye on him.
After seeing both teams last week, I think Ireland are way stronger than the Welsh but I still like PNG to cover the start.
Fiji v Wales (+44) – Sunday, 0830 GMT, Premier Sports
Suliasi Vunivalu delivered for us last week with two tries against USA and I’m happy to go in again on the same bet.
Last week Fiji were really good. They could have scored 100 points but they feel flat in the second half.
Taane Milne to score at any time is also worth considering. He plays inside Vunivalu.
Wales are backing up from very hot and humid conditions in Papua New Guinea. That was a very physical game and now they must play in Townsville, where it will be extremely warm again.
Teams who played the PNG Hunters in the Queensland Cup tournament this year always struggled the week after because they were such a very physical team. Many of their players are also in the national team.
I think Fiji will cover the start here which will mean another big, high-scoring win, and if that’s the case Vunivalu is sure to be involved with finishing off their moves.
Australia v France (+56) – Friday, 0900 GMT, Premier Sports
The starts looks a bit big here.
The last time these two played in 2009, Australia won 42-4, while France played not too bad last week and were only beaten late on by Lebanon – that game could have gone either way.
The French have 12 Super League players in their team and they can keep this closer than the line suggests.
Australia have rested some players, although those coming in are very good.
Cameron Smith will break the record for most consecutive appearances for Australia and the Aussie players do treat these milestones as major events.
Of course, Australia will win but I’m loathe to take them giving up 50-plus points so I’m going for France to cover. It’s a big start and the fact it’s a night game will also help France.
Josh Mansour is a fantastic option to score a try at any time, although he’s very short to do so, and a major contender for two or more in the game at a more tempting 10/11.
Recommended bets
3pts Suliasi Vunivalu to score two or more tries v Wales at 6/5
1.5pts Fiji (+44) & Samoa (+12) double at 3/1
1.5pts Jermaine McGillvary to score two or more tries v Lebanon at 6/5
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Posted at 1400 GMT on 02/11/17.
