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Free Rugby League World Cup betting tips: Ian Millward's preview of Australia v England & the other opening fixtures
Twice a Super League winner as coach of St Helens, Ian Millward runs the rule over Australia v England and the rest of the opening weekend's fixtures at the Rugby League World Cup.
Papua New Guinea v Wales (+18) – Saturday, 0600 BST, Premier Sports
PNG have the advantage of three games in this pool at home in Port Moresby where it will be very, very hot – 31C is predicted for this match with scattered showers.
They have four NRL players at their core and one of the exciting players is David Mead – watch out for him – with two good hookers being Kurt Baptiste and James Segeyaro.
Many of the others won the Queensland Cup in Australia this season with the PNG Hunters. The success came on the back of playing very simple and good go-forward rugby. The majority of Papua New Guinea’s national team players were involved so they will have a good cohesion and understanding.
I think the heat will get to Wales. They lack speed and they’ll have to play in front of a full house which will be totally behind PNG.
PNG will win this and I expect them to cover. However, I’m a little bit concerned about the weather – can they get into a rhythm if the rain causes them some problems?
New Zealand v Samoa (+12) – Saturday, 0810 BST, Premier Sports
Samoa will match New Zealand in the forwards, that’s a given. They can match them in terms of size and physicality and another thing in their favour is that rain is forecast in Auckland at the time of kick-off.
With this in mind, total points looks an unders play.
Samoa have a history of two things – being physical and coming up with a lot of errors.
In the halves, they have Faamanu Brown, Joseph Paulo (both NRL players) and Ben Roberts too but I think they’ll struggle to get some rhythm to score points.
New Zealand have Shaun Johnson, Te Maire Martin and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and for them to win those three blokes have got to step up.
I don’t think Samoa have enough points in them to cause the upset but New Zealand will score in what I believe will be a low-scoring game – the Kiwis to win and cover.
Fiji v USA (+32) – Saturday, 1040 BST, Premier Sports
The USA only have one player in their whole squad who has played in the NRL or Super League, namely Eddy Pettybourne.
They lack pace and cohesion and will struggle defensively. Fiji have the talent, size and speed to take advantage.
The bet in this game is Suliasi Vunivalu, their winger who I’ve tipped in the top tournament tryscorer market, to score two or more tries at around 6/5. He’s the man who can finish off Fiji’s moves against a poor team.
In terms of the handicap, I think Fiji can cover. They will score 40 points minimum but USA will struggle to score many. There’s obvious speed in Fiji's outside backs and I expect them to utilise that.
Ireland (+12) v Italy – Sunday, 0400 GMT, Premier Sports
Ireland rely a lot on Liam Finn, their half-back. He has a very good kicking game. However, they’ll find really warm weather and high humidity in Cairns which will take a lot of their passion away.
For Italy, James Tedesco is arguably the best attacking full-back in the game and was very unlucky to miss out on the Australian squad. Paul Vaughan is an uncompromising forward and their kicker Josh Mantellato will turn their four points into six.
They also have extremely strong forwards and should be able to control the game. Italy to win and cover in this one.
France v Lebanon (+2) – Sunday, 0500 GMT, FreeSports
I’m a bit confused in this game. France have 12 players who have played for Catalans Dragons in Super League, a level much higher than many of Lebanon’s men. They also have Theo Fages, who has had a fantastic season at St Helens.
France can create doubt in an opposition defence and they should be too strong for Lebanon, whose two stars are Mitchell Moses and Robbie Farah.
I’ll go for France because of the fact they have more players who have played at a high level but there are still some question marks over France’s form and how they adapt under pressure.
With all this in mind, a bet I like here is in the half-time/full-time market – Lebanon to lead at the break and France to end up winning. Class can tell in the end but this might be worth a go at odds of 8/1.
Scotland (+30) v Tonga – Sunday, 0615 GMT, Premier Sports
This is a massive game for Tonga, who are under scrutiny after they managed to snare the services of Jason Taumalolo and Andrew Fifita.
A look at their opponents’ team will encourage them – or rather who they have out. Lachlan Coote, Euan Aitken and Peter Wallace are all NRL players who made them a better team last year in the Four Nations.
Tonga will come out roaring and will be way better than Scotland. Their star, Danny Brough, needs to play off a team on the front foot and he won’t get that in this game.
Australia v England (+14) - Friday, 1000 BST, BBC Two & Premier Sports
I don’t think people should think this is the be all and end all for England. The key thing is for them to make the final.
Wayne Bennett has suggested a close defeat will be OK in this one. He’s covered himself basically.
In many ways, I agree. A win here would add pressure on England for the rest of the tournament.
Bennett wants a good performance and he’s very good at challenging people.
Australia had the tougher warm-up game when they played in Fiji against some of the islanders. England’s game was more of a training run against a Perth team.
I think England will need time and the pace and intensity will catch them out.
Australia are a very well-oiled team, ready to hit the ground and run.
England will need the game to get better with their combinations and I feel Australia will break them on the edges defensively with their attack.
It’s a big start but I think Australia can cover. I expect that in the last 20 minutes England will struggle with fitness and cohesion and with their great combinations, Australia will finish too strong.
In my outright preview, I talked up George Williams. He’s a fantastic player but Wayne Bennett hasn’t picked him.
The coach has gone for Luke Gale to organise and will be hoping Gareth Widdop shows the form which saw him third in the Dally M medal during the last NRL season.
Jonny Lomax looks set to start at full-back. He’s always been the best potential player in the UK but injuries have held him back.
Stefan Ratchford is another unlucky to miss out. He did a fantastic job in the mid-season game.
Recommended bets
3pts Fiji (-32) to beat USA at evens
3pts Suliasi Vunivalu to score two or more tries in Fiji v USA at 6/5
2pts under 43.5 points in New Zealand v Samoa at 10/11
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Posted at 1330 BST (Australia v England) & updated at 2230 BST (other games) on 26/10/17.
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