Two-time Challenge Cup winner Ian Millward previews this year's final between Wigan and Hull and brings you his best bets.
Recommended bets: Challenge Cup final
3pts Wigan (-2) to beat Hull at 11/10 - the Warriors boast better players in key positions
1pt Joe Burgess to score the first try at 10/1 - knows how to find the tryline; looks a fair price
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Wigan v Hull – Saturday, 1500 BST, BBC One
I like Wigan for this final. I reckon they’ve been building up to this over the last few weeks and they are starting to get some momentum now.
The reason for that is they’ve had more continuity in the key positions - the halves, hooker and at full-back. Sam Tomkins is starting to play better and the influence of Sean O’Loughlin is massive for them.
I’ve already written in about how experience is a key ingredient to have heading into a Challenge Cup final and this is a game where both teams have a lot of it.
Hull obviously won last year. I thought they were a bit lucky last season but here they are in the final again this time around.
There’s also a lot of experience in the Wigan team and I see both packs of forwards being important in the outcome.
Liam Watts and Scott Taylor of Hull do have the ability to off-load the ball but Wigan over the last few years have been one of the best defensive teams in Super League. I think it’s that better defensive game which gives them the edge.
Their spine can get the done for them and with their better form I like them as a bet.
I do respect Hull having had the harder route to the final having beaten both Leeds and Castleford in the last two rounds but Wigan having their key players available can make the difference.
Looking at the sub-markets, I’m keen on George Williams for man of the match. I really believe he’s come of age and is now a world-class five-eighth. He has the ability to create and he’s also a match-winner. I love his composure and he brings an air to the team.
As for first tryscorer, Joe Burgess is probably one of the better finishers in rugby league – he has that happy knack of finding the tryline. I really like his ability and he’s a decent price to score first. Tomkins may be worth a saver given the form he’s run into.
The total points line has been set at 42.5 by some firms and that might be a little bit high. I’d be going under that mark.
I understand that the weather is going to be warm – 24C and no rain is forecast – and that could point to tries but I just think the teams will come in mentally prepared to have a high completion rate (not take too many risks) and aim for a good kicking game. If so, they will make it hard to score.
My best bet is simply Wigan to win. They have the best team for this game, the environment and the occasion.
Hull have a really good pack of forwards but their players in key positions are not as good as Wigan’s.
NRL
It's also the penultimate round of the regular season in the NRL - here are my thoughts on some of the key games.
Canberra v Newcastle – Friday, 0900 BST, Premier Sports
Canberra must win. It’s their last home game of the season and their final hope to make the play-offs.
They should be too big in the forwards for Newcastle for whom half-back Brock Lamb is out.
Canberra have good form at home to Newcastle and I think this could be a very high-scoring game with total points being over the set line.
The reason is I think both teams will throw caution to the wind – Canberra have to win while Newcastle can’t do any better this year than finishing with the wooden spoon.
Canberra to win and cover.
Melbourne v South Sydney – Saturday, 0830 BST, Premier Sports
Melbourne will be presented with the league leaders’ shield upon the completion of this game.
Souths have really turned their season around but can’t reach the play-offs. They also have full-back Alex Johnston out. In contrast, Melbourne have a key player in the shape of Cooper Cronk returning at half-back.
I think Melbourne’s defence will go well and they will also score points so I take them to win and cover.
Both teams have defensive strength so I also think total points will be under 42.5. I think that mark is too high.
These sides have a rich history of low-scoring matches – 11 of their last 12 meetings have failed to break 34 in terms of total points.
New Zealand v Manly – Sunday, 0500 BST, Premier Sports
This is New Zealand’s last home game of the season and Manly must win to stay in the top eight.
Over the last few weeks I’ve felt the Warriors have almost given up. They are struggling in the half-back positions with players out.
Manly looked flat last week but they still have more purpose and conviction about them.
I spoke to their coach Trent Barrett in the week and it’s a game he feels they can bounce back in and they have the players to do that.
It’s Manly to win and cover for me.
Posted at 0705 BST on 25/08/17.
Related links
Sky Bet's latest Challenge Cup final odds
Millward: How to win the Challenge Cup final
Challenge Cup final guide
