Timeform analysis | Aidan O'Brien's Royal Ascot two-year-olds

By Tony McFadden

Horse Racing

Thu June 09, 2022 · 3y ago

Tony McFadden uses Timeform ratings to highlight the strength of Aidan O'Brien's current crop of two-year-olds heading into Royal Ascot.

A return of one win - and arguably a fortunate one at that for Tuesday - from the nine Group 1s to have taken place in Britain and Ireland this season represents an underwhelming return for Aidan O'Brien, so high is the bar that he has set.

There's good reason to anticipate O'Brien making a big impact when the juvenile Group 1s come around, however, as his two-year-olds have made a sensational start to the season.

No trainer has racked up more wins in two-year-old races this term than the 13 clocked by O'Brien (the Johnstons are next with 11), and those victories have been achieved at a hugely impressive 50% strike-rate.

Those returns are similar to what O'Brien posted prior to Royal Ascot last season, but in stark contrast to how the stable tended to perform in the years prior to the Covid pandemic, indicating there's been a change in strategy at Ballydoyle.

The figures below show how O'Brien has fared in two-year-old races from the start of the season until one week prior to Royal Ascot. The data for 2020 has been omitted due to the Covid pandemic significantly delaying the start to the season.

2022: 13 wins - 26 runs (50% strike-rate)
2021: 11-22 (50%)
2019: 11-46 (24%)
2018: 10-46 (22%)
2017: 6-40 (15%)
2016: 13-46 (28%)

It's also interesting to compare how much better his representatives in 2021 and 2022 fared on debut than they had in previous campaigns.

2022: 7 wins - 17 debutants (41% strike-rate
2021: 9-17 (53%)
2019: 8-33 (24%)
2018: 3-25 (12%)
2017: 1-24 (4%)
2016: 6-28 (21%)

The data shows that across the last couple of seasons O'Brien has been running fewer juveniles before Royal Ascot, but the ones he has been sending out have been hitting the ground running, lacking for little in the way of fitness or knowhow.

One notable contrast to last year, however, is the quality among his two-year-old crop. Heading into Royal Ascot in 2021 not one of O'Brien's juveniles had earned a Timeform rating of 100. Four of O'Brien's have done so this season, with Blackbeard (108p), Little Big Bear (106p), Age of Kings (104p) and Statuette (100p) among the dozen in training to have hit that benchmark. Karl Burke (Dramatised on 101p and Pillow Talk on 100p) has excelled with his fillies this term and is the only other trainer with more than one two-year-old who has hit a rating of 100 or higher, highlighting the strength in depth among O'Brien's current crop.

O'Brien's highest-rated juveniles of 2022

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