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13:05 Ludlow

Monday 26 November 2018

All12:3013:0513:4014:1514:4515:2015:50

2019 Annual Membership Now Available Novices' Handicap Chase

Off time: 13:05 | Winning time: 6m 5.5s

1^st

Sutter's Mill

711-4

9/1

T: Evan WilliamsJ: Adam Wedge

In touch, mistake and lost place 6th, headway 8th, not fluent next, led 3 out, edged right flat, hard pressed, held on op 8/1 tchd 10/1

2^nd

The Ogle Gogle Man

611-4

13/8f

T: C J MannJ: N D Fehily

Led until 1st, led after 2nd, headed next, stayed handy, blundered badly 6th, not much room after 4 out and switched left, challenged 2 out, every chance flat, just held op 3/1

3^rd

Balkinstown

811-2

4/1

T: R StephensJ: Mr C Dowson (7)

Held up in rear, headway before 4 out, every chance 3 out, one pace and held last op 5/1

4^th

Baron Du Plessis

711-11

11/4

T: Ian WilliamsJ: T J O'Brien

Tracked leaders, went 2nd 6th, every chance 4 out until not much room 2 out, one pace and held last tchd 5/2

5^th

Hugos Horse

511-10

6/1

T: P F NichollsJ: Sam Twiston-Davies

Led 1st until after 2nd, led from 3rd, pecked 4 out, headed and mistake 3 out, weakened next op 3/1

Also Ran

Monsieur Arkadin

711-12

14/1

T: Tim VaughanJ: James Best

Tracked leaders, not fluent 6th, blundered badly and lost place 8th, closed before slow 12th, driven 15th, lost place before 4 out, soon weakened, pulled up before last op 12/1

Midnight Owle

810-0

50/1

T: Miss C DysonJ: Jamie Bargary

Tracked leaders on outside, lost place 3rd, headway on outside 10th, pushed along and struggling from 12th, behind 15th, soon pulled up

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Betting Breakdown

Tote Win:£11.20Pl:£4.10, £1.30EX:£33.90Trifecta:£158.40SF:£26.36Swingers:£6.20, £11.10, £1.60

Forecasts

The Ogle Gogle Man (13/8), Baron Du Plessis (11/4), Balkinstown (4/1), Hugos Horse (6/1), Sutter's Mill (9/1), Monsieur Arkadin (14/1), Midnight Owle (50/1)

The most likely winner is the handily-weighted Balkinstown. He won very well over hurdles at Plumpton last week and has some experience of the larger obstacles from his pointing days. It's probable that he's belatedly on an upward curve, but equally one could potentially question his reliability based upon his overall career form, so he's opposed at the projected odds with MONSIEUR ARKADIN who will almost certainly be out forcing the pace from an early stage.