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16:10 Perth

Thursday 27 April 2017

All14:0014:3515:0515:3516:1016:4517:20

All New Discovery River Tay Handicap Chase

Off time: 16:10 | Winning time: 4m 56.4s

1^st

Mystifiable

910-13

7/2

T: F O'BrienJ: P J Brennan

Prominent, led narrowly before 5th, made rest, pressed from 2 out, 1 length advantage last, soon ridden, stayed on well under pressure flat op 4/1

2^nd

2 ½

Special Catch

1011-12

10/1

T: J M JeffersonJ: B S Hughes

Held up in touch, tracked leaders going well before 4 out, went 2nd before next, effort to challenge 2 out, 1 length down last, ridden and kept on same pace flat, always held op 9/1 tchd 17/2

3^rd

Full Shift

811-3

11/4

T: N J HendersonJ: J McGrath

Led to before 5th, with winner, ridden and lost place before 3 out, no chance with front pair from next op 7/2

4^th

Baileys Concerto

1110-11

22/1

T: Mrs Dianne SayerJ: Harry Challoner

Tracked leaders, lost place before 4 out, soon behind, stayed on to take modest 4th flat, no chance with leaders op 18/1 tchd 20/1

5^th

Value At Risk

811-7

13/8f

T: D SkeltonJ: Harry Skelton

Close up on outside, outpaced after 4 out, soon ridden, no impression with leaders from next, lost modest 4th flat op 11/8

Also Ran

Uhlan Bute

910-9

12/1

T: Miss V WilliamsJ: Charlie Deutsch (3)

Prominent, blundered and unseated rider 9th

Formidableopponent

1010-0

50/1

T: W Young JnrJ: Sean Quinlan

Chased leaders to before 10th, soon lost touch, tailed off when pulled up beofre 3 out op 40/1 tchd 66/1

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Non-Runners

Tiquer⁵⁵

Weight: 10-10| Age: 9

T: A E Jones J: Nick Scholfield

Betting Breakdown

Tote Win:£4.00Pl:£2.00, £2.80EX:£29.30Trifecta:£112.50Tricast:£100.61SF:£32.55Swingers:£2.10, £3.00, £4.60

Forecasts

Value At Risk (13/8), Full Shift (11/4), Mystifiable (7/2), Tiquer (5/1), Special Catch (10/1), Uhlan Bute (12/1), Baileys Concerto (22/1), Formidableopponent (50/1)

A fascinating contest. Baileys Concerto loves this track and can be expected to run well, but at the age of eleven is vulnerable to an improving sort. Full Shift likes Kempton and although a shade below par at that track on his latest outing races from a dangerous mark at a track which is highly likely to play to his strengths. However, there has never been any denying that VALUE AT RISK possesses much ability, it's more a case that he's taken an eternity to get his act together over fences. On the back of a couple of good runs split months apart, he comes into this race relatively fresh with a spring campaign presumably well mapped out by his shrewd young trainer.