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20:15 Kempton

Friday 23 March 2018

All17:4518:1518:4519:1519:4520:1520:4521:15

32Red.com Handicap

Off time: 20:17 | Winning time: 2m 31.02s

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Selected odds by:

(8)

William Hunter²⁷

Age: 6| Weight: 9-7| J: M Harley| T: A King| OR: 80| D

6/1

Takes a drop in grade after running a little disappointingly at Lingfield last time, finding only the one pace under pressure. Ability is there if he can put it all together but that's not a given, and he comes with plenty of risks at present.

Form: 5333-76

(1)

Counterfeiter^b1,t⁴⁹

Age: 8| Weight: 9-7| J: R Havlin| T: M R Bosley| OR: 80

66/1

Going nowhere fast at present, either over hurdles or on the Flat, and connections now try a different combination of headgear after finishing tailed off at Wolverhampton last time. Others readily preferred.

Form: 10/89

(5)

Take Two¹⁰⁰

Age: 9| Weight: 9-6| J: L Morris| T: A M Hales| OR: 79| D

10/1

Genuine sort that's effective both on the turf and synthetic surfaces, was in very good form when last seen (including a head second over C&D) and has gone well after a break before. Should run his race if fit.

Form: 142251-

(11)

Soghan^t¹⁰⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 9-6| J: S W Kelly| T: R Hughes| OR: 80| D

5/2

Improving with each run, and was never stronger than at the finish when winning at this trip at Wolverhampton last time. Up another 5lb but on a a fast upward curve and no saying how far he can go. Big player again.

Form: 7/4431-

(10)

Muhtaris⁴⁴⁷

Age: 8| Weight: 9-6| J: George Downing| T: Ian Williams| OR: 79| D

20/1

Seen very little on the Flat or hurdles these days, and this will be his first start since December 2016. Handicapper has given him a chance, and yard are no mugs, so a glance in the market is required. Not totally discounted.

Form: 183101/

(9)

Lady Valdean^h¹¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-1| J: Rossa Ryan⁽⁵⁾| T: J Santos| OR: 75| D

25/1

Probably been a bit outclassed in a few of her starts but in truth she's not really shown enough to suggest she's got what's needed to come out on top here. Needs improvement from this mark.

Form: 619926-

(3)

Lightly Squeeze^p,h³⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-1| J: G Lee| T: P Hide| OR: 75

33/1

Winner at Doncaster (10f) last summer but all rather downhill since then, and he's been well beaten over hurdles last two starts (tough tasks). Plenty to prove here, not least this trip suits as well as shorter.

Form: 661746-

(6)

Native Fighter³⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 9-0| J: Oisin Murphy| T: S Dow| OR: 74| CD

9/4

Done well since joining this yard in January, and ran out a ready winner over C&D latest start, winning like a horse with more to come. Up 5lb but that won't be enough to hold him if in the same form, and he looks one for the shortlist.

Form: 444-321

(4)

Deduce³⁰

Age: 5| Weight: 8-10| J: Ryan Tate| T: J M P Eustace| OR: 69

10/1

Put in her best effort for a while when a close third to Native Fighter here last time, but lacks the scope to improve that he has. Nevertheless, may take another step forward and can be considered for the places, at least.

Form: 231/9-63

(2)

Tan Arabiq⁴¹

Age: 5| Weight: 8-9| J: Josephine Gordon| T: M Appleby| OR: 68| D

10/1

Winner over this trip at Wolverhampton in December but has found life harder since then, and weakened out of it a bit too quickly for comfort last time. Needs to refind best form to hold a chance.

Form: 5812-85

(7)

Intermodal^t¹¹

Age: 4| Weight: 8-6| J: Nicola Currie⁽⁵⁾| T: J Tuite| OR: 64| C

20/1

On the plus side, has a win to his name here (back in 2016) but finds winning hard these days, and despite the fact he's usually on the premises at some point, isn't progressing and others are preferred.

Form: 653-745

Forecasts

Native Fighter (9/4), Soghan (5/2), William Hunter (6/1), Tan Arabiq (10/1), Deduce (10/1), Take Two (10/1), Intermodal (20/1), Muhtaris (20/1), Lady Valdean (25/1), Lightly Squeeze (33/1), Counterfeiter (66/1)

NATIVE FIGHTER and Soghan could be the two to concentrate on here, and Simon Dow's improving 4-y-o just gets the vote after winning with plenty in hand last time out. The likely good pace set by Lady Valdean will help and he can come out on top again. Soghan won't be a pushover after an impressive win last time but may just lack that bit of race fitness after a short break. Deduce and Muhtaris both hold claims as well.