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20:15 Kempton

Saturday 6 January 2018

All17:4518:1518:4519:1519:4520:1520:4521:15

32Red Handicap

Off time: 20:15 | Winning time: 3m 30.49s

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Selected odds by:

(4)

Lord George^v1²¹

Age: 5| Weight: 9-13| J: Daniel Muscutt| T: J R Fanshawe| OR: 96| C

4/1

Northumberland Plate fourth who has not looked the most resolute on his last two starts. No surprise to see headgear fitted and this looks less difficult than his last two races, but others make more appeal for win purposes.

Form: 487424-

(10)

Gwafa⁴⁴⁷

Age: 7| Weight: 9-9| J: Fran Berry| T: P R Webber| OR: 92| BF| D

7/1

Won the Swinton Hurdle in 2016 but has only had two runs since and has been sidelined 15 months. Weighted on the best of his Flat form and likely to need this with bigger hurdling prizes in his sights this spring.

Form: 52122/

(5)

Haines²⁸

Age: 7| Weight: 9-9| J: William Cox⁽⁵⁾| T: A M Balding| OR: 92| CD

14/1

Four-time C&D winner who goes well fresh. Would have wanted a better tempo than he got on his return a month ago and there is a good chance he will get that here.

Form: 84/1695-

(8)

Sam Missile¹²⁰

Age: 5| Weight: 9-8| J: D C Costello| T: J A Osborne| OR: 91| C

16/1

His last win came off a mark of 85 and his best run since came off 87. Work to do with Lord George on Northumberland Plate form but on a more positive note he does reserve his best for this venue.

Form: 245609-

(3)

Cosmelli^b²¹

Age: 5| Weight: 9-7| J: T Eaves| T: Miss Gay Kelleway| OR: 90

20/1

Has dropped 9lb since catching the eye in the Northumberland Plate and likely that run flatters him. Has shown little in both starts since being gelded and hard to see him finding what will be required.

Form: 878736-

(7)

Clowance One^b¹²³

Age: 6| Weight: 9-7| J: T Hamilton| T: Kristin Stubbs| OR: 90| BF| CD

10/1

Dual C&D winner when with Roger Charlton and joined current yard for 5,000gns. Will ensure a decent pace if usual tactics are employed, but current mark appears up with events.

Form: 331414-

(6)

Velvet Revolution²⁸

Age: 5| Weight: 9-5| J: M Harley| T: M Botti| OR: 88| CD

5/1

Improving type who came back from a three month break to score in similar grade over 1m6f at Wolverhampton. Should do even better back at this trip and with the pace of the race likely to suit.

Form: 280121-

(2)

Sunblazer^t²⁴

Age: 8| Weight: 9-5| J: A Kirby| T: K C Bailey| OR: 88| CD

9/2

Landed a seventh AW success when maintaining his current rate of improvement over C&D last time. Has struggled on last few runs in this grade but this is not a hot race for this level.

Form: 003131-

(1)

Royal Reserve⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 9-4| J: D Tudhope| T: D O'Meara| OR: 87| C| D

6/1

Had a breathing problem on penultimate start but came good when scoring at Lingfield over Christmas. Made hard work of it that day and this looks a lot tougher.

Form: 182391-

(9)

Cliff Face^b²⁴

Age: 5| Weight: 9-2| J: L Morris| T: Sir Mark Prescott| OR: 85| C

7/1

Well handicapped on some pieces of form but just not putting it all in at present and has become frustrating to follow.

Form: 087924-

Forecasts

Lord George (4/1), Sunblazer (9/2), Velvet Revolution (5/1), Royal Reserve (6/1), Cliff Face (7/1), Gwafa (7/1), Clowance One (10/1), Haines (14/1), Sam Missile (16/1), Cosmelli (20/1)

A few of these have questions to answer at present. For Lord George and Cliff Face the issues relate to attitude, whilst for Sam Missile and Clowance One it is their current marks that are the concern. Royal Reserve may struggle in this company, but Haines goes well here and is relatively fresh which is usually a good time to catch him. Sunblazer is respected given his current rate of improvement, but VELVET REVOLUTION is also on the upgrade and looks potentially better weighted. His latest run followed a three month break and there is the prospect of even better to come.