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16:25 Warwick

Thursday 5 October 2017

All14:1514:4515:2015:5016:2516:55

Colliers International Business Rate Services Handicap Chase

Off time: 16:25 | Winning time: 5m 57.6s

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Selected odds by:

Sego Success^p¹⁷⁰

Age: 9| Weight: 12-1| J: Wayne Hutchinson| T: A King| OR: 136| BF| CD

4/1

Failed to win since taking a Doncaster handicap chase in late 2015 and put in a good performance here prior to that over C&D. Not quite in the same form since although he is back below his last winning mark and of interest here now in cheekpieces.

Form: 634P5F-

Ballycross²⁰⁵

Age: 6| Weight: 11-12| J: Sam Twiston-Davies| T: N A Twiston-Davies| OR: 133| D

9/4

Still yet to win over fences despite a couple of good performances to finish runner-up twice; looks to need a real test of stamina but yet to really prove himself over further than 3m. Last two runs (outclassed once) have left some question marks though.

Form: 2343P0-

No Buts¹⁴⁸

Age: 9| Weight: 11-11| J: T Scudamore| T: D G Bridgwater| OR: 132| C

20/1

Versatile with distance he is a course over shorter with his last win coming over a stamina sapping 3m4f at Taunton off an 8lb lower mark. That win looks to have pushed him too high in the weights based on the evidence of his last run; tough ask here.

Form: 31941-P

Shanroe Santos^p¹⁷³

Age: 8| Weight: 11-8| J: L P Aspell| T: L Wadham| OR: 129| CD

5/1

Given a chance by the handicapper with the addition of cheekpieces that proved to be the catalyst for some improved form with the first of two wins coming over C&D. His jumping has been sketchy though and he ran poorly when last seen; chance if fencing holds up.

Form: F62117-

Lofgren^t⁴⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 11-7| J: W T Kennedy| T: D McCain Jnr| OR: 128

12/1

Found his form in May when winning consecutive chase starts the second a handicap off a mark of 120 (mark looked lenient) although he ran well off higher subsequently in tougher contests. Rare poor effort last time but this mark does require more.

Form: 112456

Long Lunch^p,t¹⁵⁷

Age: 8| Weight: 11-3| J: J J Burke| T: C E Longsdon| OR: 124| C

9/2

Consistent sort who often travels well in his races but fails to deliver what is promised a point well demonstrated by his last run in May. Mark now dropping to one he can manage but he'll need to be ridden with patience and delivered late to score.

Form: F206F-5

Beggars Cross¹⁸⁰

Age: 7| Weight: 10-13| J: Aidan Coleman| T: Jonjo & A O'Neill| OR: 120| C| D

13/2

Took a while to come to himself last season eventually turning in his best performance when scoring at Doncaster in February off a reduced mark. Reverted to his sketchy profile after that and remains 8lb above that last winning mark.

Form: 5441F3-

Forecasts

Ballycross (9/4), Sego Success (4/1), Long Lunch (9/2), Shanroe Santos (5/1), Beggars Cross (13/2), Lofgren (12/1), No Buts (20/1)

The time to catch the Charlie Longsdon yard is usually in the autumn and they have started the season in good form and that provides a pointer to Long Lunch who is operating off a mark he ought to be able to win off if he puts it all in at the finish; yard won this race last year. Ballycross has yet to totally prove himself over fences and like Shanroe Santos comes into this off a break but with doubts about how they ended last season. Both No Bus and Lofgren need to show more here along with Beggars Cross and that leads us back to SEGO SUCCESS who has an easier task than usual and may well be able to take advantage of that fact around a track he’s run well at before.