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15:15 Lingfield

Saturday 25 February 2017

All13:3014:0514:4015:1515:5016:2517:00

Betway Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3)

Off time: 15:15 | Winning time: 2m 4.68s

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Selected odds by:

(1)

Battalion²¹

Age: 7| Weight: 9-0| J: G Baker| T: J A Osborne| OR: 108

7/4

Former stable companion of Mutakayyef who won his first two races for new yard. Four time C&D winner who was sixth in this in 2015. The weight he gets from the likely favourite and fitness advantage give him a leading chance.

Form: 560521

(10)

Convey¹⁴⁷

Age: 5| Weight: 9-0| J: Andrea Atzeni| T: Sir Michael Stoute| OR: 111

11/2

Smart horse over but finished last on his only previous venture beyond a mile. Also needs to prove he can come to hand this early in the season and stable form is hard to evaluate. Finished more than 6L behind Mutakayyef in Ascot's Summer Mile last year.

Form: 16235-1

(2)

Grendisar^b1²¹

Age: 7| Weight: 9-0| J: A Kirby| T: M Botti| OR: 108

11/4

A statisticians dream. Six times C&D winner who landed this last year and was runner-up in 2015. Rider has partnered him to seven of his ten career victories and has partnered the last two winners of this. Blinkers are applied for the first time having run a shade below par on his last three starts, perhaps not going through with his finishing effort last time.

Form: 22-1114

(3)

Mythical Madness^p¹⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 9-0| J: J P Spencer| T: D O'Meara| OR: 101

20/1

Looks held by Battalion and Grendisar on running here three weeks ago. Cheekpieces replace a visor but more is going to be needed.

Form: 152807

(9)

Pinzolo^p³⁵

Age: 6| Weight: 9-0| J: Tom Marquand| T: I Mohammed| OR: 105

17/2

Useful when allowed to dictate from the front. Broke the 1m4f track record here last time and that looks to be his optimum trip nowadays. Sure to set a good pace and will not go down without a fight but he will probably set this up nicely for one of his rivals.

Form: 351-120

(4)

Solar Deity^p²¹

Age: 8| Weight: 9-0| J: S Donohoe| T: Jane Chapple-Hyam| OR: 100

40/1

Has looked short of this level in the past and was never a factor behind three of these last time.

Form: 800764

(6)

You're Fired⁴⁹

Age: 6| Weight: 9-0| J: D C Costello| T: K R Burke| OR: 107

50/1

Useful performer who is going beyond a mile for the first time. Pedigree suggests his stamina will be stretched and he has plenty to find on form.

Form: 002-670

(8)

Zhui Feng¹³³

Age: 4| Weight: 8-13| J: Jim Crowley| T: Mrs A J Perrett| OR: 102

11/1

Useful handicapper who holds a Lincoln entry. Winner at Goodwood last term and ran well to finish fifth in the Cambridgeshire. Appears to be aiming too high here.

Form: 550-480

(5)

Absolute Blast²⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 8-11| J: Oisin Murphy| T: A Watson| OR: 100

9/1

Progressive handicapper who has her first run here since leaving Ian Jardine. Has run at Group One level in France so is probably capable of more than we have seen but it remains hard to see her beating the established stars in this lineup.

Form: 112312

Non-Runners

(7)

Mutakayyef¹⁶¹

Weight: 9-5| Age: 6

T: W J Haggas J: Jim Crowley

Forecasts

Mutakayyef (5/4), Battalion (7/4), Grendisar (11/4), Convey (11/2), Pinzolo (17/2), Absolute Blast (9/1), Zhui Feng (11/1), Mythical Madness (20/1), Solar Deity (40/1), You're Fired (50/1)

Stats wise last year's winner Grendisar ticks a lot of boxes but has performed below expectations in his last three starts and blinkers are tried here. His overall form leaves him a few pounds short of MUTAKAYYEF who progressed into a smart middle-distance performer last season. Fitness should not be an issue as he goes well fresh and represents a yard who are going well. Pinzolo is in tremendous form at present and although this trip is short of his best his front running style and willing attitude will make him a tough opponent. 1. Mutakayyef 2. Grendisar 3. Pinzolo