Ten year trends for the Lincoln at Doncaster


Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Saturday's Betway Lincoln at Doncaster and picks out the key statistics.

It has been six years since the last favourite justified their position in the Betway Lincoln but Yuften is a warm order to strike back for the market leaders.

Relatively unexposed for a six-year-old after 13 career starts, he could well have more to offer on just his fourth outing for Roger Charlton and second since being gelded.

It has been nine years since the Lincoln winner had had a run in Britain during the same season with Very Wise warming up at Lingfield before winning at Newcastle. 

Yuften is rated 1lb higher than any other winner in the decade but the last three have all been rated higher than 100 and the son of Invincible Spirit has been rated as high as 116 and is only 4lbs higher than when winning the Balmoral Handicap on British Champions Day.

Three of the last six winners had run at Meydan in the winter and Oh This Is Us is closely matched with Yuften on a line through Salateen who was a short-neck in front of Richard Hannon's runner in Dubai and the same distance in front of Yuften at Wolverhampton.

Unlike Yuften, Oh This Is Us has the benefit of course form to his name having won on Town Moor over seven furlongs last October and the step back up to a mile shouldn't be an issue given his winning form over that trip at Newmarket.

Withernsea was one of those behind Oh This Is Us at Doncaster but his trainer Richard Fahey holds stronger claims with Dolphin Vista who was a good second in a traditionally hot Newmarket handicap last April.

He went on to win races over a mile and over 10 furlongs and that proven stamina is by no means a negative as he reverts to a mile for his first run since being gelded.

Fahey has won the race twice in the last decade while David O'Meara has been knocking on the door of late with a second, third and two fourths. He's represented by Steel Train and Bravery who makes his first start for the yard.

Mondialiste was beaten a neck on debut for the yard in 2015 and Lord Of The Land likewise when a disappointing 6/1 chance in last year's renewal so Bravery has to be of keen interest but he doesn't have the profile of a typical winner.

Battle Of Marathon was third last year but is 7lbs higher now and looks too high in the weights, as does 10th home You're Fired but Third Time Lucky at least has the benefit of his rider's claim.

Donncha and Instant Attraction where second and third in the 2016 consolation race, the Spring Mile, so are obviously suited to this test but neither has won since June 2015 and both are higher in the handicap than last year.

Yuften is a short price but so, too, were winning favourites Penitent and Expresso Star and like that pair, Yuften is a pattern race performer and has already finished second in a Group One (subsequently disqualified and placed fourth).

It's popularly thought that you need about a stone in hand to win a race of this nature and it could be argued that Yuften has that given he's 11lbs below his career high mark and he can climb a few rungs back up the ladder by winning on Saturday.

- Winners have been aged four (4), six (3) and five (3).

- Winners have carried between 8-4 and 9-4 with six of the last seven between 9-0 and 9-4).

- Winners have been rated between 90 and 104 with the last three 100+.

- Winners have been returned between 3/1 and 25/1 with six between 3/1 and 12/1; two favourites have been successful.

- Winners have been drawn between one and 22; four in single figures and six not.

- Six winners finished in the first three on their preceding start.

- Six winners were making their seasonal reappearance; three of the exceptions ran at Meydan.

- Seven winners had won or been placed in a class 2 handicap.

- Six winners had won at a mile; of the exceptions, all bar one had won over trips beyond a mile and the 'bar one' had placed.

- Of the six winners that had previously run at Doncaster, five had placed or winning form at the track and 2014 winner Ocean Tempest had finished fifth in the Spring Mile.

Including results for the 2007 renewal that was run at Newcastle.

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