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York Ebor Tips Today: Best Value Bets for Wednesday August 21
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- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
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Value Bet tips: Wednesday August 21
1pt win Bold Optimist in 1.50 York at 18/1 (General)
1pt win Knightswood in 4.10 York at 8/1 (General)
1pt win Deira Mile in 3.00 York at 9/1 - NON RUNNER
Crowning moment for City Of Troy?
The very best racehorses not only need heaps of natural talent but to prove it they also require an opportunity in which to really showcase their ability and, with that in mind, there’s a good chance we see something special from City Of Troy in Wednesday’s Juddmonte International.
They’ve turned out en masse from all over the place to take on Aidan O’Brien’s Justify colt on the back of a relatively workmanlike display in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown, but his breathtaking Derby win at Epsom still burns bright in the memory and on that evidence he might well be a great three-year-old about to underline the point on day one at York.
A part of me would love to see it, but we have to be pragmatic when considering whether to have a bet in these races and he wouldn’t be for me at 11/8 or thereabouts in a line-up containing so many quality rivals.
It’s not hard to see the French runners Calandagan and Zarakem causing the favourite a few issues, especially after witnessing what Francis Graffard’s Goliath – a stablemate of the former - produced when beating Bluestocking in the King George at Ascot.
Bluestocking is not to be discounted either here and there’s arguably still a little bit of juice in her price around 8/1, but I’d argue the only one who might be way out of line in the market is Durezza (33/1), who can’t be an easy one to price up ahead of his debut in Britain.
Trained – and solely campaigned to this point – in Japan, the four-year-old son of Duramente was beaten a long way in a two-mile Grade 1 at Kyoto when last seen towards the end of April, which is hardly a ringing endorsement, but it’s fair to say that obviously wasn’t his true running as he won a top-class contest over a similar trip to that – the ‘Japanese St Leger’ – at the same venue last October.
Perhaps his most relevant piece of form when it comes to Wednesday’s test is his five-length second in a 10-furlong Grade 2 this March, when chasing home Prognosis, who went on to be beaten narrowly by Romantic Warrior in the QEII Cup at Sha Tin.
It has proved very dangerous to underestimate Japanese turf horses the world over in recent years and I’m certainly not taking this one lightly, although I’ll stop short of recommending him as a bet due to just not knowing of what he could be capable of.
Deira will do for me at prices
There are better bets to be had elsewhere and it could be worth taking on the O’Brien-trained trio in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur with DEIRA MILE.
With Ballydoyle sending out Euphoric, Illinois and Los Angeles, this six-runner Group 2 looks highly likely to be run at a decent gallop and the first-named is surely going to take them along.
The market readily prefers Irish Derby winner Los Angeles, who was supplemented into the race last week, but he and Illinois have to carry respective 3lb and 5lb penalties for their Group 2 and Group 1 wins, and Deira Mile looks decent value in opposition.
A strapping son of Camelot who looked sure to make up into a better three-year-old when signing off last year with a fair fourth in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster, he was a big price for the Derby after easily winning a small novice race at Windsor on his seasonal return, but performed well in fourth from well off the pace.
He had a bit of a messy run in the straight which isn’t uncommon for the also-rans at Epsom but finished just a length and a half behind third home Los Angeles and was staying on well towards the finish despite drifting down the camber.
Trainer Owen Burrows – who has had three winners from just six runners recently – has kept him fresh since the Classic and clearly knows a good one when he sees it. Deira Mile is still totally unexposed over middle-distances and I’m happy to wager he’ll tee himself up nicely for a shot at the St Leger with a big run on a track which looks bound to suit.
Ever the Optimist...
The Tattersalls Acomb Stakes looks an absolute cracker and could include a few genuine Classic contenders for next spring.
Ruling Court and The Lion In Winter are the obvious pair in that bracket but Andrew Balding’s well-bred Jouncy might be the surprise package after his maiden win at Goodwood late last month.
A bit of experience can go a long way at York and he’s the sort of horse I’ll probably look to get on side in some capacity on the Betfair Exchange on the day, but there are a couple of handicappers worthy of support, starting with BOLD OPTIMIST in the opening Symphony Group Handicap.
His 20-something trainer Danny McLoughlin, who spent time with Adrian Keatley and Dermot Weld growing up, only took out a licence at the beginning of the year but he could hardly have wished for a better start, having had three winners from 19 starters, and Bold Optimist has been the flag-bearer.
The four-year-old gelding has been responsible for a couple of those victories and was never better than when coming from off a strong pace to get up with something to spare over the minimum trip at the Curragh recently.
That represented a change in tactics as he’d typically been much closer to the pace in his earlier starts this term but he’s going to have to take a lead from the incredibly speed Democracy Dilemma, and equally sharp Looking For Lynda, this week.
There is pace more towards the other side too through Tees Spirit and We Never Stop but I’d be amazed if Democracy Dilemma, drawn in three, doesn’t lead them up and Bold Optimist should get a perfect tow as he’s drawn right next door in four.
Whether he’s quite quick enough to hold his own in this company remains to be seen but Silvestre De Sousa is going won’t give him much respite in the saddle and the manner in which he finished off at the Curragh smacked of an in-form sprinter with plenty more to offer.
He runs off just a 3lb higher mark here and looks underestimated in the betting.
Knights can ride to the rescue in stayers' event
Irish eyes could be smiling again in the Sky Bet Stayers Handicap too as Extensio looks to give Pat O’Donnell a dream win but he’s priced about right and I’d rather be with Charlie Johnston’s KNIGHTSWOOD.
He will surely revert to being given a more prominent ride with Joe Fanning back on board after a fairly luckless run when fifth behind stablemate Align The Stars over a mile and six furlongs at Goodwood last time.
He was denied a clear run on a couple of occasions, having buried away down on the inside rail at the Sussex track, and even when the gap eventually came he was quickly short for room again when staying on.
That was a cracking effort and, given the winner is bound for the St Leger and the runner-up is in Saturday’s Ebor, this looks a less competitive race.
It’s true that Knightswood remains 8lb higher than for his most recent win which came at Ripon last June, but he’s just not quite had the rub of things yet this season and stepping up to the extended two miles for the first time here could just be the making of him.
Published at 1600 BST on 20/08/24
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