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York Ebor Tips Today: Best Value Bets for Friday August 23
Day three of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival and our value-seeker is on the lookout for over-priced horses at York - check out his three Friday picks.
Value Bet tips: Friday August 23
1pt win Derry Lad in 1.50 York at 12/1 (bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. Washington Heights in 3.35 York at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Canoodled in 4.10 York at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365)
Capital gains with Washington?
Winners at 100/1, 40/1 (twice), 28/1 and 20/1 over the past 25 years underline the fact York’s Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes often isn’t a straightforward betting heat, and I usually like to have something on side at a big price in the Friday feature.
Three at double-figure odds made the shortlist this time including the aforementioned 28/1 hero from last year, Live In The Dream, along with back-to-form (possibly) mare Azure Blue, but it’s WASHINGTON HEIGHTS who could prove most over-priced on what has unfolded so far this season.
He looked an improved animal when signing off for last term in truth but the fact his wide-margin Listed win back in September came in a relatively small field at Swedish course Bro Park saw him go off a largely unconsidered 33/1 for his comeback in the Group 3 Abernant at Newmarket.
Up with the pace from the outset, he showed excellent speed to ultimately see off Mill Stream, Spycatcher, Mitbaahy and Tiber Flow, who have since won the Duke of York, July Cup, Greenlands Stakes, John of Gaunt and Hungerford between them.
That’s pretty hot form when you look back on it now and while Kevin Ryan’s horse was only fourth to Mill Stream in the Duke of York, he missed a beat as the stalls opened that day but was still able to get to the lead and travelled strongly at the head of affairs passing the two-furlong marker.
The early exertions to recover from his tardy start eventually took a toll but he was beaten just half a length at the line, basically confirming the impression made at Newmarket – that he’s improved plenty over the winter - without the result to show for it.
Last time out was admittedly a backward step but the stiff six furlongs at Ascot did look a longshot for such a strong-travelling, speedy type and I can’t wait to see what he can do going back to a flat five furlongs for the first time since early last year as I just think he’s got much quicker as he’s matured.
He’s had a good break since the Royal meeting which doesn’t look a bad thing with that reappearance success from the spring in mind, the horse handles all types of ground and we know he loves York too as he was chinned by Shouldvebeenaring in the big sales race at this meeting as a juvenile and again went down only narrowly to Quinault in a typically competitive three-year-old handicap (Mill Stream closely involved again in third) last summer.
It's a strong body of work and, given trainer Kevin Ryan’s ability to extract further progress from his older sprinters, the best days could yet be ahead for Washington Heights, who looks a cracking Nunthorpe bet all things considered.
Lad can deliver on a going day
In the opening Sky Bet Handicap, it’s DERRY LAD who appeals at the prices and he should find this track more to his liking than Galway and Epsom, when not getting much luck at either venue on his two most recent starts.
This horse can run one of two ways and the latest effort was another stinker on paper, having been quite well fancied (7/1) for Galway’s Guinness Handicap over this mile and a half trip, but the more forgiving among us might point to the fact he was drawn 18 of 19, and the first four home all came from single-figure stalls.
He was a short-ish price there on the back of an eyecatching effort at Epsom on Oaks day, when repeatedly getting no luck in the run under Hayley Turner and arguably looking the best horse on the day after flashing home late to be third without coming under maximum/much pressure.
The runner-up there, Paradias, won a big handicap from the progressive Native Warrior at Goodwood recently, while the close fourth, Haunted Dream, was second to Israr in the Wolferton on his next start before winning a conditions race (also at Goodwood) earlier this month. There’s no denying it’s strong handicap form and Derry Lad runs off just 1lb higher at York so I’m sure there’s plenty of room for manoeuvre from his mark.
On top of that, nearly all of his best runs on the Flat have come in Britain and I suspect the tempo of the races over here suit him well. He should have no excuses on that score this week as there are three or four who like to get on with it in Friday’s line-up and Tom Marquand – who takes over from a 5lb claimer in the saddle – probably couldn’t have wished for a better draw in stall three.
Good ground suits the selection well but a drop of rain wouldn’t do any harm either and I just think if you scratched the last run Derry Lad would be coming into it at half the odds you can currently get.
Can-do attitude in fillies' handicap
Providing the sting has been taken out of the ground (some rain expected overnight) and she’s given her chance to take part, CANOODLED also looks worth an interest in the Assured Data Protection EBF Fillies’ Handicap.
She’s been a non-runner on account of good to firm in the past and Wednesday’s track record-breaking terrain wouldn’t be up her street at all but hopefully there’s a slight easing of conditions as she looks really interesting upped in trip to 10 furlongs for the first time in her life.
She’s by Mehmas so stamina for middle-distances has to be a bit of a query but her half-sister Cossetted won a Doncaster handicap earlier this year on her first go at a mile and a quarter, while another half-sibling Indulged was also successful over this far, so there’s encouragement from the dam’s side of the family.
Canoodled also left the impression she was more than ready for it when staying on from near the back to end up fifth, beaten just a couple of lengths, over the stiff mile at Ascot last month and that run probably wants marking up if anything as the winner Surveyor and third Fair Point were on the front end from the start.
Surveyor has done her bit for the form subsequently as well, almost following up off 3lb higher when beaten a neck by Arisaig at Goodwood’s big meeting, and Canoodled has actually been dropped another pound to a mark of 82.
That’s still 4lb higher than when last successful at Newmarket 12 months ago but she was a half-length fourth in a Listed race later in the campaign so her best form reads pretty well in the context of this event.
She’s drawn well in stall two, should get a strong gallop to help set things up and might just be the latest horse in a long list of late to benefit from being partnered by Billy Loughnane, who can seemingly do little wrong at present.
Published at 1600 BST on 22/08/24
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