York Ebor Festival preview: Graham Cunningham analysis

Time to park the crisis talk as Ebor week dawns

The game’s up unless Peter Savill and his anonymous heavyweights can carry racing into the Premier League promised land.

That’s what some are saying as the racing tribe gets increasingly restless and it’s fascinating to speculate on where the sport will find itself in five years’ time.

Perhaps the Savill plan to combat small fields and stop good prospects being sold abroad will thrive or maybe the Racing League will snag that elusive new audience to complement the sport’s ageing demographic. And maybe pigs will fly.

Talk of radical change is rife – with William Haggas recommending a fifth of the fixture list be torched – but the brooding Yorkie knows full well that this sport has the turning circle of a rusty old super-tanker.

Savill’s strongly worded letter will probably help the BHA accelerate change to the bloated programme for horses rated between 80-100 but the chance of slowing down the global transfer market for British stock is any price you care to name without a major increase in prize money.

The Sav isn’t offering much on the funding issue – perhaps as well given how his 2002 plan to charge newspapers through the nose to publish racecards unravelled – and the riddle of whether racing has reached a tipping point is tantalising.

Haggas dons rose-coloured glasses to suggest betting turnover would remain at current levels even with 300 fixtures cut adrift, while RCA chairman Wilf Walsh fears “financial Armageddon” if racing opts to slash and burn without intense data study.

But, spoiler alert, neither scenario will come to pass. Nor will there be a return to the Tote monopoly days craved by well-meaning purists or a cap on the number of horses one person can train.

Time will tell what happens once the BHA sit across from hard-nosed key stakeholders with heavy duty legal backing next month but if you can get evens about a shiny, happy ‘Peace in Our Time’ statement followed by something more like minor Botox than a major facelift to the racing calendar for 2024 and beyond I would take it like a shot.

The current febrile wind, fully justified and given added impetus by the groans of those who feel their best years may be behind them, merely mirrors society in general and isn’t likely to dissipate when the Truss bus rolls into Downing Street.

However, amid all the gloom it’s worth mentioning that British racing still boasts half of the top two dozen horses on the planet (judged on the latest World’s Best Racehorse Rankings) and an inner resilience that shouldn’t be underestimated.

Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood showed that Britain’s summer showpieces are still appointment viewing for punters the world over. And when the job is done properly, as it will be for four days of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival this week, it remains nothing short of spectacular.

Brilliant Baaeed to put on a show in day one highlight

Look around the Knavesmire this week and you will find a few old fossils who witnessed one of the biggest shocks in York’s storied history.

Fifty years have passed since the mighty Brigadier Gerard – considered invincible having won fifteen straight including a Guineas, two Sussex Stakes plus the QEII, Champion, Eclipse and King George – was floored by Derby winner Roberto and Panamanian pilot Braulio Baeza in the inaugural running of what was then called the Benson and Hedges Gold Cup.

Baaeed ought to be a similar price (1-3) to the Brigadier on Wednesday – Frankel was 1-10 when destroying a world-class field in 2012 - and this debate contains no shades of grey.

Contrarians feel there is value in opposing the favourite as he faces an extended ten furlongs for the first time against two rivals – last year’s runaway hero Mishriff and Irish Guineas winner Native Trail – who are better than anything he has ever faced bar his QEII victim Palace Pier.

And Baaeed fans will counter that the Haggas colt has been utterly dominant over a mile and is bred to be every bit as good if not better over middle distances.

For what it’s worth, I expect Baaeed to relish the extra distance and put on a show of strength, especially if High Definition reverts to the freewheeling tactics that almost won him the Tattersalls Gold Cup back in the spring.

ITV caller John Penney nailed the dismount back in ’72 by exclaiming that “Brigadier Gerard’s unbeaten record is absolutely smashed to smithereens.”

I doubt Richard Hoiles will be borrowing that line on Wednesday – not least because no-one has a clue what a smithereen is nowadays – but York is the perfect stage for the world’s highest rated racehorse to shine. And, who knows, maybe he can even plant the seeds for a certain Parisian challenge that neither the Brig nor Frankel were allowed to take on?

Time to jog on as draw scuppers low draw theory

Racing is replete with crackpot notions but if you’re seeking a First Ballot Hall of Famer then look no further than the old York Joggers’ Path Theory.

The YJPT gained credence in the 1990’s among people who should have known better to explain why front runners dominated against the inside rail in the home straight.

Not one shred of evidence was put forward to substantiate the claim - and the mind still boggles as to how many gasping gallumphers it would take to compact a strip to such dramatic effect – but the effect of showers on heavily-watered ground can be significant.

My own crackpot scheme for Wednesday’s opening Symphony Group Handicap involved harking back to last month’s Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe, in which those drawn high struggled as the first six home came clear from single figure stalls.

The plan to make a big score early was scuppered when most of my main fancies came out among the high numbers and, with that in mind, DEAUVILLE LEGEND and OVIEDO look two of the more interesting bets on the card.

Deauville looks a legend in the making

Plenty of punters will feel it is significant that William Buick has chosen emphatic Goodwood handicap winner Secret State over the mercurial Walk of Stars in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes.

Then again, William handed his old pal James Doyle a couple of lucrative Voltigeur pressies in 2017 and 2021 by choosing Cross Counter ahead of Old Persian and Kemari ahead of Yibir.

Of course, the Godolphin ghost at this year’s Great Voltigeur feast is impressive Gordon Stakes winner New London, who would have been a strong favourite had this been his chosen target.

Still, Deauville Legend chased New London home willingly under a 3lb penalty at Goodwood. James Ferguson’s charge is a gelding, so this is his Derby and St Leger rolled into one, and 9-2 looks very fair given that he’s thriving on racing and clear top rated on Timefom.

Now to the Tattersalls Acomb Stakes, which has produced more than its share of surprise results over the years.

Mill Stream is bound to go well on his first attempt at seven furlongs after keeping the highly-regarded Noble Style honest at Newmarket, while Local Dynasty is tricky to assess accurately after beating fellow newcomers in style at the same venue.

Potential is plainly the key word for the entire field in this G3 but Oviedo travelled like a smart youngster prior to getting the better of a subsequent winner on his Donny debut. This is deeper, much deeper, but he’s the sort to run much better than a 14-1 quote suggests.

Precocious Twomey poised to crash the Ebor party

What were you doing at the age of thirteen?

Breeding a G1 winner probably doesn’t figure high on any lists unless your name is Paddy Twomey but it’s hard to think of a new face more likely to crash the York party this week than the upwardly mobile Irish handler.

Twomey “sold a couple of calves and cattle” to help fund the breeding of 1995 Prix Morny winner Tagula during his schooldays and his exploits as a trainer are starting to look every bit as impressive.

The presence of assorted O’Briens and various other A-List handlers makes Ireland a hard school for trainers who seek to maintain a high strike rate but Twomey is connecting at better than one in three with 26 winners from just 77 runners this season and he heads to York with live chances in two of the biggest races of the week.

La Petite Coco has the admirable Alpinista and two Classic heroines (Tuesday and Magical Lagoon) to beat in Thursday’s Darley Yorkshire Oaks but Twomey seems quietly confident and it’s worth noting that Timeform rate her above both Oaks winners and only 3lb behind the favourite.

But landing gambles in major handicaps has been the foundation of many a major training career and EARL OF TYRONE’s Ebor claims are hard to ignore given his rate of improvement since joining Twomey’s Cashel team this spring.

True, a Leopardstown plunge over ten furlongs went astray first time out but three subsequent wins – the latest an emphatic Listed defeat of Saturday’s G3 winner Raise You in the same Limerick Listed race won by last year’s Ebor winner Sonnyboyliston – were indicative of a horse who is going from strength to strength.

It may be just coincidence that the Ebor trophy has been marked for export every other year for more than a decade now and the man behind the latest Irish hope plays down his role in the Earl Of Tyrone story by saying “I was lucky he came through my door as he was just about hitting his prime.”

Twomey’s poker face is impressive but his guard drops a little when asked to expand on the 104-rated Earl. “In the fullness of time he will be rated higher” seems a key line. Perhaps that time will come at about 3.30pm on Saturday.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.