It's Dante day at York on Thursday and our value-seeking expert has a couple of selections to consider in the highly-competitive handicaps.
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Value Bet tips: Thursday May 16
1pt win Looking For Lynda in 2.15 York at 18/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Navagio in 2.45 York at 20/1 - NON RUNNER
Burke runner Lynda worth a look
With no obvious reason to take on the market leaders in the Dante itself, it boils down to just a couple of bets on day two at York and LOOKING FOR LYNDA appeals in the Lindun York Handicap.
He’s not quite on Copper Knight’s level when it comes to being something of a course specialist, but Karl Burke’s horse has run well in the majority of his seven previous starts at York, including when narrowly denied in a nursery off a mark of 95 towards the end of his juvenile campaign in 2022.
Rated 99 on the back of that, it took a while for him to rediscover his level, which can often be the case with three-year-old sprinters, but duly took full advantage of a reduced mark (84) to score over this course and distance last September.
He backed that up with a good second in a conditions event at Beverley, splitting rivals rated 101 and 96 at the time, and has held his own in four handicap outings subsequently.
Three of those have come earlier in the current campaign and he’s still searching for a fourth career success, but he clearly improved for the Pontefract reappearance run when second to Night On Earth at Epsom, before connections rolled the dice off the same rating just four days later at Ripon.
He was beaten a couple of lengths in the end, but the soft ground and more testing track probably counted against him late on and he’s just the type to thrive for a return to the Knavesmire on a sound surface.
Clifford Lee jumps ship to ride top-weight (and stablemate) Korker, but he seemingly couldn’t do the 8-8 on Looking For Lynda so I don’t consider it much of a snub at all. Korker, incidentally, was the horse who finished ahead of him at Beverley last term and Looking For Lynda is a massive 19lb better off on Thursday’s revised terms, having been beaten five and a half lengths when they last met.
Sam James - in for the ride here - won on the selection at Musselburgh a couple of years ago and I like the middle draw (10), with Spartan Arrow (11) and Clarendon House (12) others likely to help force the pace in the same part of the track.
The other one to consider in the opening race is John and Sean Quinn’s Jm Jungle, who shaped very encouragingly in fourth despite racing away from the bulk of the action at Musselburgh’s recent Sky Bet Sunday Series meeting. He’s been left on the same mark of 93 and could step up quite considerably again in Britain this term if his winter efforts out in Bahrain are a true reflection of his progress.
Sadly, the layers have been onto him since declarations were made and I’m going to play the ‘price sensitive’ card here and hope we could possibly get him on side at Epsom or Goodwood a little later in the year.
Turning track could help Moore mount to shine
The Oakmere Homes Hambleton Handicap is always a cracking contest and a couple stand out at the prices on offer this year – the first being Cruyff Turn, who has popped up to win valuable handicaps in 2022 and again in 2023, having really gone through the grades during a remarkable 2021 campaign which saw him win four times in total.
He likes York, is back on a dangerous mark and should be well placed early on from stall three.
On the flip side, he was about two stone below his best when down the field in the Thirsk Hunt Cup earlier in the month, and while beaten in that race before going on to win races in the past, it really was a lifeless run and I need to see a little more before recommending him.
Preference is for James Horton’s NAVAGIO, with the booking of Ryan Moore in itself a fairly punchy nod of approval.
This horse only arrived from Ireland at the start of the year, but he’d signed off with a win in a minor event at Gowran last July and very nearly delivered at the first time of asking when a running-on third at a big price in the Lincoln.
What that did prove was that his BHA mark of 96 was by no means out of range and although unable to build on the promising Doncaster run when only 14th of the 21 runners in the Spring Cup at Newbury last time, I can happily put a line through that as he was on the back foot from the get-go after emerging awkwardly from the stalls.
He’s been eased a pound to 95 following Newbury which seems fair, and I do fully expect him to bounce back this year, particularly on a turning track as he clocked several of his better efforts when racing around a bend for previous connections - at Naas, Limerick and Gowran Park last summer.
Genuinely fast ground conditions would not be ideal for the son of Footstepsinthesand, but he’s fine on good going and there may be more showers around so it’s hoped connections opt to take their chance.
The one I came closest to backing in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes was Novus, following her terrific effort in defeat at Goodwood 12 days ago.
She has tended to save her finer performances for that track, including a taking victory at the big meeting there in early-August, but she did go on to win a 10-furlong Group 3 at Newmarket in the autumn, and I thought her recent run was another small career-best.
Fitted with first-time cheekpieces, she ended up being beaten a short-head in a tight, three-way photo, but she was conceding the winner and third the 7lb penalty so emerges as the best horse in the race – quite comfortably.
This is obviously that bit tougher again but a strongly-run race could help eke out a little more improvement as she definitely wants a proper pace to chase, while the cheekpieces being retained makes a lot of sense.
Gary and Josh Moore’s filly does probably want genuinely testing ground to be seen at her very best, though, so unless the heavens open again I’ll have to sit tight and see how she goes in her first crack at a Group 2.
Published at 1600 BST on 15/05/24
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