Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to the ITV4 action from Newmarket, York and Chepstow and has three interesting outsiders to consider.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 140.70pts in profit (259pts staked, ROI of 54.32%).
Value Bet tips: Friday September 11
1pt win Peter The Wolf in 2.05 York at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Mandurah in 2.25 Newmarket at 11/1 (General)
1pt win Trouville in 4.10 Newmarket at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor, Betfred)
Man like Crisfords
A Friday treat with ITV4 showing racing from Newmarket, York and Chepstow. Flat racing’s headquarters looks to have escaped some pretty foul midweek weather elsewhere in the country and the two-day Future Champions Festival is going to start out on something close to good ground.
Friday's feature bet365 Fillies' Mile doesn’t always produce Classic horses but the winners are more often than not in that sort of calibre and this year’s race has the makings of a quality edition, with Godolphin and Ballydoyle sending some of their rising stars into battle.
Aside from Doncaster one-two Desert Flower and January, plus the rather raw Dreamy, who would be an obvious first-string for most yards but has seemingly been shunned by Ryan Moore, the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Anna Swan deserves a mention around the 16/1 mark.
The seven-furlong Oh So Sharp Stakes earlier on the card was seemingly under consideration but her pedigree would leave you in no doubt about her getting the mile even at this early stage, and she’s already produced the goods on decent and softer ground conditions.
The small event Anna Swan landed at Newbury last month probably wasn’t much of a race – the runner-up has been awarded a BHA mark of 82 – but she looked very straightforward, making all the running, and might not be a complete pushover for the market principals.
In the other juvenile races, Archie Watson's Zayer wasn't disgraced when put up in this column ahead of the Flying Childers last time and could be worth another chance if the price is right in the Cornwallis, but I'd rather change course and back MANDURAH in the Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes.
She made a serious impression when beating Miss Fascinator (reopposes here and is a shorter price) on debut in a July Course novice back in June and then arguably travelled like the best horse in the race for around 90% of the Princess Margaret when last seen.
She probably went a shade too strongly if anything as, having hit the front just after the two-furlong marker, she then found the stiff final climb to the line a bit much at that stage of her career and was ultimately overhauled, finishing fourth but beaten merely a length in total.
The winner, Simmering, won a Deauville Group 2 on her next start and is obviously very classy having been placed at Group 1 level since then, so Mandurah's effort was a huge one on just the second run of her life, and it's interesting that she’s had a couple of months on the sidelines, suggesting perhaps all was not right after Ascot.
Simon and Ed Crisford's juveniles are typically worth following this time of year, though - their two-year-olds on turf in the months of October and November operate at an excellent 62.86% PRB (percentage rivals beaten), with 15 of the 70 runners winning to a level stakes profit of £16.35 to a £1 level stake – and I'd expect her to be fully fit for the first crack at seven furlongs, which should be no trouble at all based on her pedigree.
James Doyle has always done well for the yard too, he was 4-7 on Simon Crisford-trained juveniles and that record since Ed’s name was added to the licence now stands at 12-45, so he’s a very positive booking for the daughter of Kingman, who looks potentially way over-priced at double-figure odds in a race lacking a standout star.
Trou love...
The main betting race at Newmarket is the bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap, in which the five last-time-out winners Grey Cuban, Mount Atlas, Brioni, Kildare Legend and Due To Henry all have higher marks (or in the latter’s case a 6lb penalty) to overcome.
Brioni's revised rating would actually be a pound higher if the official handicapper could have another stab as the form of his Ascot success has worked out quite well, but this race closed early so he's fractionally ahead of the assessor after beating Whiskey Pete by four lengths.
However, like Cuban Grey and Due To Henry, Brioni is also stepping up a couple of furlongs in trip and of those towards the head of the market I much prefer James Ferguson’s Kildare Legend, who relished the 12 furlongs – as his pedigree suggested – when getting off the mark in handicap company at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting.
Runner-up Percy Shelley let the form down a little but - conversely - the fifth, sixth and seventh have all added some gloss to the merit of that race and I'm drawn to the fourth home, TROUVILLE, at a big price this week.
Another for the Crisfords, Trouville was obviously a big, backward type as he failed to make the track at two having gone for €170,000 at the Arqana breeze-up last spring but he soon got to work earlier this year, finding only one too good on his first couple of outings before getting off the mark in a Chepstow maiden.
He then missed June, July and the majority of August too and when he came back he was very unlucky as a loose horse got in his way quite early on over 10 furlongs at Goodwood, and he was ultimately brought home in his own time having never got involved.
So in a sense, last month’s Doncaster effort was his first proper run since May and, while showing a good deal more than on the previous outing, he was still potentially just short of his peak from a physical point of view. Kildare Legend went by him quite easily when the tempo increased but Trouville got his second wind in the final furlong and a half, and was only beaten a length and a half by the reopposing winner.
He’s gone up a pound which may look a bit harsh on the face of it but I still think this lightly-raced son of Le Havre has plenty of potential left in the locker and a strongly-run race over this expansive, galloping mile and a half should be right up his street.
Wolf to show more bite up in trip
Diol Ker, having his first run for new trainer Evan Williams in the Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase, was the closest I came to a recommendation at Chepstow but the obvious conclusion is that he might be one to monitor before he pops up somewhere when the winter ground has completely set in.
So, it's onwards and upwards to York for the final recommendation on Friday and it’s going to be hard work in the conditions on the Knavesmire.
Padishakh has major claims to victory in the opening William Hill Top Price Guarantee Autumn Handicap but that's not telling readers anything the market already isn't, and PETER THE WOLF could be a better bet in the British EBF £100,000 Final.
His trainer Warren Greatrex is having a fine time with the youngsters he’s picked up for the Flat project he’s started this time around and while Peter The Wolf hasn’t got his name on the scoresheet just yet, he’s been running well in defeat, including when coping well with soft ground at Ascot two starts ago.
He gave it a good go from a prominent pitch that day but was outpaced late on by the front two, understandably so given the winner Diego Ventura is now rated 104 having been second in the Royal Lodge subsequently.
Peter The Wolf improved a touch more when second to another promising, unexposed sort in Good Banter at Wolverhampton, where it looked blindingly obvious that he was desperately in need for a step up in trip.
The son of Sergei Prokofiev gets just that here and I’m happy to take on the top of the market as the unbeaten Amiloc looked in need of every inch of the mile when defying the penalty at Kempton most recently.
Published at 1600 BST on 10/10/24
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