Would a slow start kill Shaquille’s Pertemps July Cup hopes at Newmarket on Saturday?

Shaquille’s problems at the start

Julie Camacho’s Shaquille has been one of the stories of the Flat season so far. The small North Yorkshire yard know a thing or two about training sprinters having masterminded Judicial to 18 career victories over sprinting trips, including at Listed and Group 3 level, but Shaquille has taken them to another plane.

Unbeaten this season having won a Newmarket handicap off 94, the Listed Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury and then the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, the Charm Spirit colt is clearly both quick and extremely talented, but there’s a nagging concern that he could undo all of that if he doesn’t improve at the start.

At Newcastle in April he point blank refused to enter the stalls on All-Weather Finals Day. That has resulted in him being blanketed and led in riderless subsequently, but he almost fluffed the start at Newmarket on his eventual reappearance, doing a little jump leaving the stalls. Mounted in the chute and taken down early at Newbury after that, he jumped out fine, but the problems resurfaced at Royal Ascot.

I was sat next to a colleague in the Sporting Life office who had backed Shaquille for the Commonwealth Cup and I knew what had happened straight away thanks to his expletive-ridden reaction to the stalls opening. Shaquille reared as his opponents scurried away, missing the break by at least five lengths. It should’ve been a race-ender, but it wasn’t.

Yet Shaquille can’t keep relying on his talent to get himself out of a hole. It looked far from a vintage Commonwealth Cup, but the best of the three-year-old sprinters got away with it against his own age group on what is probably the best track in the country to miss the break at. He isn’t likely to get so lucky when he tackles open company in a Group 1.

How the July Cup has been won in recent years

Shaquille’s first assignment against his elders is in the July Cup at Newmarket next Saturday and he’s chalked up as the 9/4 favourite with Sky Bet to follow in the hoofprints of Muhaarar, the inaugural Commonwealth Cup winner – and still the only horse to win both that race and the July Cup in the same season.

Timeform’s in-play symbols (IPS) are a quick and easy way to see how any horse has fared in any race and a quick glance at the July Cup winners tells us that in recent years this race has been won by prominent racers or those who raced in touch in mid-division. Not one winner has been considered held up since IPS began.

July Cup Winners: Timeform in-play symbols since IPS began

• 2022 - Alcohol Free 3kr
• 2021 - Starman 3R
• 2020 - Oxted 2Kr
• 2019 - Ten Sovereigns 1R
• 2018 - U S Navy Flag 1kr
• 2017 - Harry Angel 2r
• 2016 - Limato 2kr
• 2015 - Muhaarar 2R
• 2014 - Slade Power 3K
• 2013 - Lethal Force 1k
• 2012 - Mayson 1k

As you can see, Mayson, Lethal Force, U S Navy Flag and Ten Sovereigns all made all in the July Cup, while Muhaarar, Limato, Harry Angel and Oxted all raced prominently or close-up.

Case study 1: Mayson (2012)

Mayson didn’t technically make all in the 2012 July Cup as Reply held the lead for a fraction of the contest on the far side, but Richard Fahey’s son of Invincible Spirit certainly dominated his rivals on a rain-soaked July Course where the ground was riding heavy. Here he is highlighted after two furlongs with daylight already widening between himself and the main pack. That was measured at five lengths at the line following a terrific display.

Case study 2: Harry Angel (2017)

Clive Cox has a couple of winners in the above list and his success for Godolphin in 2017 came courtesy of a powerful sprinting performance from the brilliant Harry Angel. He raced prominently sitting on the shoulder of the front-running Intelligence Cross as you can see in the image after two furlongs. Adam Kirby steered him to the front over a furlong out and the ‘r’ on his IPS figure is reflective of how well he responded to pressure on the stiff finish, running out a length-and-a-quarter winner over the previous year’s victor, Limato.

Case Study 3: Starman (2021)

Starman did things slightly differently in 2021 and he’d be the nearest thing to a ‘held-up’ July Cup winner since IPS figures began. Still, he was given a ‘3’, representing a mid-division position rather than anything more drastic and you can see where he challenged from in the image above – this is after two furlongs and he’s the highlighted one buried amongst horses on the left-hand side of the picture. The capital ‘R’ indicates he responded really well to pressure and he did, overcoming trouble in the run to impressively sweep past Dragon Symbol in the run for the line.

Shaquille needs to be Newbury-slick from the gates

Shaquille was allotted a ‘5’ for his early position in the Commonwealth Cup after missing the break, a number that indicates he was ‘behind’ which is a bit of an understatement. However, he isn’t a hold-up horse by design and his IPS figures throughout his career have been 2-1-1-2-2-1-5 in chronological order.

His usual running style is to travel strongly in the lead or a prominent position, the kind of traits that lend themselves well to the July Cup, and if he’s as slick as he was from the gates at Newbury two starts ago he’ll give himself a great chance of beating his elders at the first attempt.

It seems likely his conscientious team at home will have been working on his behaviour at the starting stalls and it would be a shame if his chance at July Cup glory is compromised by missing the break.

He doesn’t want to do that, not at this track in this race, but if he can jump on terms we might well end up witnessing another exciting chapter in the three-year-old campaign of this most progressive sprinter.

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