It's day one of the Berkshire Winter Million meeting and Matt Brocklebank looks to back up last Saturday's 12/1 winner at Ffos Las with a bet in the big handicap hurdle.
Value Bet tips: Friday January 17
1pt e.w. Go Dante in 3.35 Windsor at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
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All Well and good in Lightning?
Loads of quality handicaps to get stuck into over the next three days but Friday’s ITV4 coverage of the Berkshire Winter Million meeting at Windsor kicks off with a fascinating running of the Fitzdares Lightning Novices’ Chase.
Only four runners for a valuable Grade 2 doesn’t look great on the face of it and Caldwell Potter will presumably be bordering on banker material for some. However, I’m not convinced he’s quite the horse they thought they were getting when connections shelled out so much at the Caldwell dispersal, and it’s tempting to take him on back down to two miles, for all that the soft ground is no doubt in his favour.
In receipt of the 7lb mares’ allowance, I’d give former Cheltenham winner You Wear It Well a serious chance of downing the favourite in this.
She was tried all the way up to three miles during her productive time over hurdles, and clearly stayed two and a half well enough, but her most famous triumph at the 2023 Festival came when dominating over two miles and one furlong in the mares’ novices’ event, and I like that trainer Jamie Snowden is going back to basics with her in terms of trip.
She’ll also presumably return to front-running tactics as holding her up in a Listed mares’ event completely bossed by Cherie d’Am at Warwick last month back-fired quite badly. I’d be much more inclined to judge You Wear It Well on her chasing debut second at Bangor, a race that Gavin Sheehan would probably like to have another go at.
Still travelling nicely at the time, he seemed to want to give his mount a good, long look at the final fence but in doing so lost all forward momentum and ultimately had his pocket picked by Shecouldbeanything who flew home under a strong drive.
There’s surely loads more to come from You Wear It Well in this sphere as, barring a bad blunder which put her on the back foot very early on at Warwick, she jumps fences well enough and Sheehan is typically a fine judge of pace so she’ll be hard to pass if able to lead Caldwell Potter over the first few obstacles.
The Lets Bet Personal With Fitzdares Mares’ Handicap Chase is an open-looking race but I certainly get the case for Panic Attack who, like a lot of the Dan Skelton runners, appears to have been brought along and tuned up with this meeting in mind.
She’s on a fair mark going back over fences but I’d have preferred to see the headgear back on as she did quite well in the blinkers for David Pipe, so can resist prices around 5/2 about her too.
The Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Hurdle has had the look of a no-bet race all along and it’s just too tight to call, with 9/2 shot Iberico Lord possibly the one open to most improvement now stepped up to two and a half miles for the first time.
Nicky Henderson’s horse won the Betfair Hurdle last season, giving L’eau du Sud 5lb in the process, and looks to have his conditions here. It’s no real shock to see him back hurdling either after the Ascot fall last month and a big run looks on the cards.
Dante's peak form could be sufficient
The Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle is the most attractive betting race on the day and I’ve got a huge amount of respect for Hansard, who I backed for the County Hurdle before he had to be withdrawn (vet’s certificate) on the day last March.
Given the subsequent absence, he shaped with considerable promise on his Kempton comeback over Christmas and the handicapper leaving him alone on a mark of 141 underlines the fact he wasn’t seen to best effect held up off a relatively slow gallop on that occasion (winner made most).
Hansard is probably starting to find his true place in the market around 6/1 at the time of writing, though, having been 12s when betting first opened, and I’m happy to cast the net wider and back GO DANTE each-way with the all major firms offering four places (Sky Bet one step further with five).
The case for Olly Murphy’s horse isn’t crystal clear as he pulled-up last time in the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Ascot but go back and watch the race (below) and, for whatever reason, you’ll see he loses about 10 lengths at the start.
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With Our Champ, Steel Ally and Secret Squirrel pressing on at a strong gallop over the first two hurdles, Go Dante was miles out of his ground by the time they turned out of the home straight and he just could never get into the race proper having been kept wide by Sean Bowen for much of the race.
It wasn’t his true form, that much is clear, and the decision to ditch the cheekpieces there has quickly been corrected for this assignment which looks a positive move.
Going back the best part of a year, Go Dante ran a fine race when third to Iberico Lord in the aforementioned Betfair Hurdle before winning the Imperial Cup at Sandown in early-March, beating Faivoir and Jipcot.
That body of work, combined with the Cheltenham success earlier last season, represents strong two-mile handicap form and while unable to recapture the same level so far this time around, he did undergo another wind operation in October and the assessor has given him a proper chance now.
Eased another 2lb for Ascot, he can run off a mark of 130 which is just 1lb higher than for the Sandown success and, back on genuinely soft ground which he seems to relish, it would be nice to see him ridden more prominently again as being dropped in the last twice just hasn’t paid off at all.
Elsewhere on the ITV4 schedule, I'm pretty keen on the claims of Go Dante's stablemate Grandads Cottage in the Unibet Middle Distance Chase Series Veterans' Handicap Chase, while Heathcliff gets my vote back at Newcastle in the Weekly £5 Free Bet With BetUK Handicap, although neither are horses I'd be raving about in terms of value at the overnight prices.
Published at 1600 GMT on 16/01/25
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