I’m sure you’ve seen the weather forecast for next week.
It’s going to be cold with sharp overnight frosts and the Met Office keep uttering the phrase ‘potentially disruptive snow.’
The BHA have already moved to add a couple of additional all-weather fixtures which always rings an alarm bell and even that perennial optimist, Kirkland Tellwright, fears there ‘”won’t be a frost sheet on earth" that can save Haydock’s fixture this weekend.
It means one thing. A lot of Cheltenham chatter to match the motion of our teeth as the wind-chill kicks in.
Bankers will be a popular topic – but as of the second week of January they’re a little thin on the ground.
It’s not unusual as Tom Jones will warble at a racecourse near you this summer and it’s worth bearing in mind that only three horses were sent off at odds-on at last year’s Fez. Constitution Hill (4/11) was brilliant, Gaillard Du Mesnil (10/11) fortunate and Mighty Potter (4/6) beaten.
El Fabiolo was 11/10 to win the artist formerly known as the Sporting Life Arkle, Gerri Colombe 5/4 in a Brown Advisory that he’d have taken in another stride, Energumene 6/5 for his Champion Chase romp and Delta Work 11/10 to win the cross-country again, which he duly did.
Shishkin at even money couldn’t get to Envoi Allen in the Ryanair, Luccia (6/4) came up short in the Dawn Run Novices’ Hurdle and on the final day Lossiemouth (11/8) and Galopin Des Champs (7/5) delivered but Allegorie De Vassy (13/8) didn’t.
This time around only Marine Nationale (5/6) in the Arkle and Constitution Hill (1/3) are currently odds-on.
We’ll see the former again before March – where he could conceivably strengthen his grip at the head of that market after a foot-perfect start over fences at Leopardstown during Christmas. We might not see Constitution Hill. Yes I know. But we might – let’s be positive – and if the wheels stay on, he’ll be the shortest priced horse at the Fez.
But the novice hurdles are very open.
It’s 5/1 the field in the Sky Bet Supreme – Jeriko Du Reponet topping the list from Ballyburn and the soon to be launched A Dream To Share.
Ballyburn, who won a maiden hurdle over the festive period, is 9/2 market leader for the Ballymore but unless Mullins unearths a two-mile ace in the next four weeks might be asked to lead the Closutton charge on day one.
The Dawn Run is 7/2 the field, the Triumph 9/2 and the Albert Bartlett 10/1. They’re divisions where no horse has put their hoof up to emerge as the dominant force. Open races and potentially interesting betting heats.
Gaelic Warrior has the potential to go short in the Turners Novices’ Chase despite connections being adamant he’s best going right-handed and two lukewarm performances at the Festival before. The memories of those will mean there are plenty ready to take him on.
El Fabiolo is a best-priced even-money for the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase and clearly will be much shorter if Ascot beats the freeze – or the Clarence House is staged somewhere soon – and he kicks Jonbon into touch – and into the Ryanair.
Then Galopin Des Champs could also go odds-on to defend his crown in chasing’s blue riband if he puts Fastorslow and co to the sword in the Irish Gold Cup next month.
And there are two other Mullins market leaders who have the potential to be drafted into the banker permutations.
First up is Lossiemouth who hasn’t been seen yet this season but was put in the Relkeel on New Year’s Day and has an Irish Champion Hurdle entry too. Her time is coming and and a bright return would make her leg three of many-a-Tuesday treble.
And then there’s Dinoblue, 6/4 for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase, who is in the Dublin Chase at the DRF and the Champion Chase in March. But she stays two-and-a-half miles and connections, both trainer and owner, have horses at the minute who are much shorter for the March speed test.
Even if she wins the two-miler on the first weekend of February you’d imagine this will be her Cheltenham target. And she’s the other runner who looks to have the potential to go off close to odds-on in March.
One thing is for sure. We’ll have shorties at Cheltenham, the vast majority with hill have WPM on their rugs and history shows they won’t all win.
But at least it gives us something to talk about this week doesn’t it? That and small field sizes, prize-money, media rights money transparency and the domination of the big battalions. Pardon? What was that? Ok, Cheltenham bankers it is.
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