Which jumps trainers are in flying form ahead of the Cheltenham Showcase meeting?

By Sporting Life

Horse Racing

Tue October 22, 2024 · 1M ago

With Cheltenham's first meeting of the season taking place on Friday, Tony McFadden highlights four jumps trainers who have been in good form in October.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (12 winners - 38 runners, 31.6% strike rate)

No trainer has had more winners in October than Twiston-Davies, whose haul of 12 included Josh The Boss winning the feature Silver Trophy at Chepstow's jumps season opener.

Those winners have come at an impressive strike rate of 31.6%, which is more than double his typical strike rate of 15% since the start of the 2019/20 season. It's also a significant upgrade on his usual strike rate in October in that period which is a creditable 19%.

One of Twiston-Davies' brightest prospects is Potters Charm, a wide-margin bumper winner last season who made a successful start over hurdles on his return at Worcester last month. He could form part of a strong Twiston-Davies team at Cheltenham's two-day meeting this week as he holds an entry in a novice hurdle on Friday.

Broadway Boy, a dual course winner last season, is likely to be of interest in the staying handicap chase on Saturday. His season finished with a bit of a whimper, but the stable form offers encouragement that he'll be firing on all cylinders again on his return.

Neil Mulholland (10-33, 30.3%)

Only Twiston-Davies has had more winners in October than Neil Mulholland whose ten winners at a strike rate in excess of 30% produced a healthy profit of £21.47 to £1 level stakes.

Mulholland has had his team in good nick throughout the summer and his tally of 32 winners for the campaign, at a creditable strike rate of 20%, suggests he's going to readily exceed last season's underwhelming total of 47 which came at a modest rate of 11%. That was his lowest total since 2013/14.

Kim Bailey (7-14, 50%)

No trainer who has had at least ten runners in October has a better strike rate than Kim Bailey who is operating at a remarkable 50% for the month.

It's also worth noting that all seven of Bailey's winners were making their seasonal reappearance or first start for the yard, so they are hitting the ground running.

Bailey's only runner in a bumper since May, Court In A Storm, was successful at Ludlow a couple of weeks ago and the trainer could have a runner in that sphere at Cheltenham on Saturday. He has entered Seatoit, a £120,000 recruit from Ireland who showed ability when runner-up at Punchestown on his second and final start for Eric McNamara.

James Owen (5-13, 38.5%)

Unlike many yards who will be cranking things up, dual-purpose operator James Owen has been busy on the Flat during the summer, helping to propel Sean Dylan Bowen to the apprentice jockey title.

Owen, a rising star of the training ranks, has endured a quiet month on the Flat, saddling only one winner from 23 runners, but the performances of his jumps team should allay any concerns about the stable's form ahead of Wimbledon Hawkeye's outing in the Futurity Trophy on Saturday.

Owen has had five winners from his 13 runners over jumps in October, including with a promising juvenile in Opec, a sister to Allmankind who bolted up at Wetherby last week in the style of one who can make an impact at a higher level.

Owen is making a name for himself as a trainer who fares well with recruits from other yards and Charging Thunder has done well since being bought out of David O'Meara's yard. He won a Flat handicap at Yarmouth last month and then scored with ease on his hurdling debut at Fakenham recently.

And how have the leading yards fared?

No trainer has had more runners in Britain in October than Dan Skelton whose total of is 73 is significantly higher than the next on the list, Evan Williams with 41 runners. Those 73 runners have resulted in only seven winners, however, which would probably be seen as a disappointing return as that strike rate of around 10% does not compare favourably to Skelton's overall strike rate of 18% since the start of the 2019/20 season. For context, Skelton had 12 winners from 76 runners at a strike rate of 16% last October, while the previous year he had 13 from 77 at 17%.

It has been a notably slow start for Paul Nicholls who failed to have a winner at Chepstow's jumps season opener. Only four of his 12 runners at that two-day meeting were placed and three were pulled up, leading to some questions about the wellbeing of his string. However, recent signs have been much more encouraging and he had a winner at Wincanton last week, at Kempton on Sunday and at Plumpton on Monday to take his record to the month to three winners from 22 runners. That strike rate, shy of 14%, is much lower than you would expect for a trainer who has operated at around 24% since the start of the 2019/20 season, but at least the tide seems to be turning.

Nicky Henderson is typically much quieter than Nicholls and Skelton in October and that's been the case this year, with only six runners emerging from Seven Barrows so far this month. There have been a couple of disappointments, but In The Air has won two handicap hurdles.

*Data correct prior to racing on Tuesday 22 October

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.

Like what you've read?