What Happens Next? Ante-post betting column


Our tennis and racing tipsters seek out ante-post value after the weekend, including a double carpet tip for the Eclipse.

Tennis


The tennis world is understandably getting carried away with the season’s second renaissance at the French Open, but the bookies also seem to be writing off Rafael Nadal’s rivals with odds of 4/7 of a 10th success.

As predicted in this column at the start of the clay campaign, the ‘King of Clay’ has been rampant, hopefully providing profits for plenty of backers of the then touted 11/4 on him being the season-ending No 1.

He will be more than 3,000 points clear of Roger Federer and 5,000 of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray in the singles race if he does prevail here, but there we go again, getting carried away.

Nadal may have been imperious so far, dropping just 20 games in four triumphs at Roland Garros, but seven of the top eight seeds remain in contention.

Djokovic or Dominic Thiem, who recently beat the Spaniard in Madrid, are likely to await in the semi-finals, meaning whoever progresses from the stronger bottom half is going to have had a battle on their hands to make the final.

Top seed Andy Murray leads the top half but is still some way off his best, with the scoreline from his straight-sets victory over Juan Martin del Potro masking the troubles he endured.

STAN WAWRINKA has faced no such issues but remains under the radar despite failing to drop a set in Paris. His potential is once again masked by modest Masters results but the Swiss star is a different animal, or should we say Stanimal, in majors.

From the last 14 majors he has reached 11 quarter-finals, seven semis and lifted three titles, second only to Djokovic, so looks overpriced at an each-way backable 9/1 in various places for a repeat of his 2015 triumph here.

Click here for Sky Bet's latest betting on the French Open

Horse Racing


Unpicking the 238th Investec Derby is not easy and requires several viewings (click here for free video replay). 

Wings Of Eagles was a deserved winner and won pretty cosily in the end. This was despite being hampered three furlongs out and then again approaching the final furlong, but once Padraig Beggy got him organised on the outside he fairly flew home to swamp stablemate Cliffs Of Moher and Cracksman. He’s clearly a strong stayer and quotes of 5/1 about him for the St Leger are understandable.

One important factor to note, though, is the ground could well have been faster down the middle of the track. Andrew Cooper said on Derby day morning that the fresh strip of ground uncovered down the rail was a bit slower and having walked the home straight myself this certainly seemed the case to my untrained heel.

Douglas Macarthur’s effort needs marking up on many factors and this is one of them, while I’d also be prepared to forgive PERMIAN what on the face of it was an average run in 10th.

Mark Johnston’s colt quickly progressed to be a 114 horse this spring and was sent off at 8/1 for the Derby on the back of that improvement. He sat prominent off the strong pace and made his challenge towards the inside between four out and three out, looking like he might play a part in the finish at that point before weakening in the last quarter mile.

His stamina for a mile and a half was a question mark beforehand, as he looked like a 10-furlong horse through and through when just losing out to Cracksman in the trial here and when winning over the trip at Newmarket and York.

It looks a likelihood that he’ll return to that distance after this and considering he ran the last three or four furlongs on what was probably the slowest part of the track, to be a non-staying 10th beaten just over eight lengths wasn’t a bad effort at all.

It’s not as if he was given a hard time once his chance had gone and it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw him bounce back to his best when he returns to 10 furlongs, possibly in something like the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown.

I’ve no idea if he’ll run there, but he seemed very much part of ‘Team Godolphin’ in the run up to the Derby and though they have Hawksbill likely to go for a repeat win in the Eclipse, a three-year-old string to the bow would not be unwelcomed.

With all this in mind, the 33/1 in places about Permian for the Sandown highlight looks slightly on the big side.

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