What does the future hold for Newmarket winners The Foxes, Lezoo and Blackbeard?

Royal Lodge raises more questions than answers

Recent history tells us that it’s worth digging a bit below the surface when analysing the result of the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes.

After all, it’s often not been the winners who have turned out to be the best prospects in the long term. Think Kameko (runner-up in 2019), Pyledriver (seventh in 2019) or Coroebus (runner-up in 2021), all of whom were beaten in this Group Two but went on to become prolific operators at the very top level.

It’s not simply a prestigious race in its own right but also a stepping stone to bigger and better things, an opportunity for immature two-year-olds to learn and for us to learn about them in turn.

Or at least that’s what is supposed to happen, but possibly not this year.

Indeed, quite what we learnt about the four runners in the 2022 running of the Royal Lodge is seriously open to debate.

All of them were covered by just a length and a quarter at the end of a muddling race, chiefly because of the steady gallop set by Dubai Mile, who was allowed his own way out in front and only began to quicken the tempo entering the final three furlongs.

THE FOXES was best equipped to deal with the dash for home, coming from last to first under David Probert to land the spoils by half a length, making it two wins in a row having opened his account in a Goodwood maiden eight weeks earlier.

Bought for 440,000 guineas as a yearling, The Foxes has clearly been held in high regard by Andrew Balding from the very start given that he was thrown into the Chesham on just his second run. He found that test coming too soon at that stage of his career but clearly derived plenty from it having stepped up to win both his subsequent starts.

Balding was dreaming of Epsom in the immediate aftermath of this success and, though it was his turn of foot which won him this race, there is little doubt that The Foxes will come into his own over middle-distances next year given the stamina on the distaff side of his pedigree.

By Churchill, he is closely related to the same connections’ Bangkok, who was a smart performer at up to a mile and a quarter. Their dam, Tanaghum, was a useful winner over the same trip and stayed a mile and a half.

So, the obvious next question is which of the beaten horses could be the future star in our midst?

It’s not totally out of the question that it could be Dubai Mile, a colt from the first and only crop of Roaring Lion, without doubt the best horse to actually win the Royal Lodge in the last decade.

Dubai Mile stuck to his task well to hold on to second, enjoying the run of the race but likely to have benefited from setting stiffer fractions according to Mark Johnston afterwards.

Regardless, this was still a big step up on anything he’d achieved previously, successful in novice events at Windsor and Kempton after being beaten on his debut, and there should be more to come from him as his stamina is drawn out further.

Similar comments apply to Flying Honours, who was the big disappointment of the race in third having been sent off the 7/2-on favourite. He had every opportunity to get past Dubai Mile but couldn’t quite manage it, simply lacking the extra gear The Foxes showed to take the gap on his inside.

This defeat obviously puts a dent in the star potential of Flying Honours, who had been a wide-margin winner of a Listed contest at Salisbury on his previous start, but it’s far too soon to be writing him off after just one underwhelming display, particularly as the way the race was run probably didn’t see him to best effect.

By Sea The Stars and out of Powder Snow, a Group Three winner over a mile and a quarter in France, his pedigree screams middle-distances – even more so than that of The Foxes – and it will be no surprise if he leaves this form behind when faced with a proper test next year.

That just leaves us with Greenland, who briefly appeared to be delivering a winning challenge down the outside entering the final furlong but could make no further impression after receiving a bump from the runner-up.

Greenland has improved with virtually every start and proved himself a useful colt, but he clearly isn’t in the top bracket of two-year-olds trained by Aidan O’Brien this season, a stable with an embarrassment of riches in this division – more on which shortly.

Speedy Lezoo may struggle in the long run

If the Royal Lodge attracts late-maturing types likely to excel over middle-distances next season, then the opposite is true of the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes.

This Group One run over six furlongs brings together the more precocious sorts, several of whom had already crossed paths during the summer months, this essentially acting as an end-of-season championship for the sprinting two-year-old fillies.

And this year we had what looked a cracking renewal on paper.

It was about as strong a line-up as could have been hoped for, with The Platinum Queen, runner-up in both the Nunthorpe and the Flying Childers, and Dramatised, winner of the Queen Mary before disappointing in the Lowther, perhaps the only notable absentees.

LEZOO had been busier than most of them earlier in the campaign, making four starts in the space of six weeks to kick off her career. She had won three of them for good measure, culminating with a first Group-race success in the Princess Margaret at Ascot in late-July.

Reappearing after nine weeks off in the Cheveley Park, Lezoo was held up in the early stages by William Buick (replacing the suspended Frankie Dettori), a wise move under the circumstances as the Lowther winner Swingalong took the field along at a solid gallop.

After making smooth headway on the far side to get into a challenging position entering the final two furlongs, Lezoo gradually began to assert late on and kept on well to get the verdict by three quarters of a length from favourite Meditate, with the same distance back to Mawj in third.

Whichever way you look at it, four wins from five starts – including Group One, Group Three and Listed victories – is an excellent return for any two-year-old. There could be more riches to come in the short term, too, with every chance she’ll run again this year at the Breeders’ Cup.

The only question then will be whether there is more to Lezoo than that, specifically whether she is just a two-year-old or whether she has the potential to improve again in her later years.

She certainly wouldn’t be the first Cheveley Park winner to fit into that first category, those before her including the likes of Tiggy Wiggy, who won six times as a juvenile in 2014 but never threatened to scale the same heights when coming back the following year.

Tiggy Wiggy was a small filly and Lezoo herself was notably smaller than many of her rivals in the paddock before the latest edition of the Cheveley Park. It could well be that any advantage she has now in terms of ability is a thing of the past come next spring when the others have had chance to fill into their frames.

Either way, the speedy Lezoo is reportedly set to stick to sprinting in 2023 rather than being prepared for a tilt at the 1000 Guineas.

That classic remains an option for Meditate, who has already shown she stays seven furlongs in two runs at the Curragh, winning the Debutante – her fourth success in a row to start her career – before finding only the exciting Tahiyra too good in the Moyglare.

Meditate has now suffered back-to-back defeats which would put a ceiling on the potential of most horses. She wouldn’t be the first filly from Ballydoyle to go on improving with racing, though, and this effort can arguably be marked up a bit given that she raced closer to the pace than ideal in an attempt to put her proven stamina to best use.

Mawj, who had beaten Lezoo when winning the Duchess of Cambridge at the July Festival, had no apparent excuses, starting her challenge alongside the winner but unable to match her turn of foot late on. She isn’t the biggest either and could prove difficult to place next year.

The first three pulled two and a half lengths clear of the rest, headed by Swingalong, who had been notably weak in the betting. In the event, however, she went a long way to confirming that her Lowther success (when she had Mawj behind her) was no fluke, her early exertions seemingly just taking their toll in the final furlong as she weakened out of the frame.

Of the rest, Trillium will be worth another chance to build on her previous promise despite trailing in eighth of the 10 runners. Reappearing only 13 days after producing a huge effort to peg back The Platinum Queen in the Flying Childers at Doncaster, she was flat here and possibly just found the race coming too soon.

Blackbeard the last man standing in Middle Park

The Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes is essentially the colts’ equivalent of the Cheveley Park, typically bringing together the winners of the big two-year-old prizes during the summer, races like the Coventry, the Phoenix and the Gimcrack.

However, it would be fair to say that this year’s Middle Park wasn’t everything it could have been.

There was no Little Big Bear, Timeform’s highest-rated juvenile in training having won the Phoenix by seven lengths. He was subsequently ruled out for the season due to injury, depriving the division of its star performer heading into the defining two-year-old races in the calendar.

There was no Noble Style, second on Timeform’s rankings having maintained his unbeaten record with a decisive victory in the Gimcrack. He could be back for a race like the Dewhurst but was forced to miss the Middle Park due to a bout of colic.

And nor did we see Bradsell, a comfortable winner of the Coventry before finishing only fourth when sent off favourite for the Phoenix. He suffered a season-ending injury in that race which explains why he was so disappointing on the day.

A clash between that trio really would have been a race to savour, but we could still look forward to a competitive edition of the Middle Park in their absence with eight runners going to post, headed by a Group One-winning stablemate of Little Big Bear and the horse who had filled the runner-up spot behind Noble Style in the Gimcrack.

We’ve already touched open the strength in depth among Aidan O’Brien’s two-year-olds this season, but the fact that BLACKBEARD is now a dual Group One winner and still has to play second fiddle to Little Big Bear among their age group at Ballydoyle really drives the point home.

Blackbeard lined up in the Middle Park having already won five times (from seven starts) in a busy campaign, clearly thriving on it having produced a career best on his most recent appearance to make the breakthrough at the top level in the Prix Morny.

A pillar-to-post winner at Deauville, Blackbeard was settled just behind the leaders early on at Newmarket as two of his main rivals in the betting, Marshman and Persian Force, helped to force a strong gallop along with the outsider Never Just A Dream.

Persian Force had fought off the other pacesetters with two furlongs to run, but it wasn’t long before Blackbeard joined him and set about putting his stamp on the race. Having gained a decisive advantage heading into the final furlong, he was always doing enough from there to beat his staying-on stablemate The Antarctic by two lengths.

Unlike Lezoo, Blackbeard has the physique to train on well as a three-year-old and it will be interesting to see where he goes now after becoming the ninth horse this century to complete the Prix Morny/Middle Park double.

Incidentally, it was only last year that Perfect Power became the eighth before going on to gain the third Group One win of his career in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot this summer.

That contest – for which Blackbeard is now no bigger than 8/1 in the ante-post betting – seemed to be uppermost in O’Brien’s thoughts immediately after the Middle Park, with another run at the Breeders’ Cup in the interim not ruled out.

The 2000 Guineas, on the other hand, seems unlikely to enter calculations, even though there are elements of his pedigree which suggest he is no forlorn hope to stay a mile.

Blackbeard is out of Muirin, a useful mare who stayed nine furlongs, while it’s too early in No Nay Never’s stallion career to draw any firm conclusions with regards the stamina limitations of his progeny.

True, most of his best runners to date have turned out to be sprinters. They include Ten Sovereigns, who won the Middle Park for the same connections back in 2018 and dropped back in trip to win the July Cup after failing to stay in the 2000 Guineas the following year.

However, it’s all about the individual and Alcohol Free, who won the Cheveley Park in 2020, is a perfect example of a No Nay Never who has been able to carry that speed over longer trips in later years. She seems to be effective over trips ranging from six furlongs to a mile and has won four times at the top level overall, including twice at the upper end of that distance spectrum.

Plans for Blackbeard next year are perhaps more likely to be dictated by what happens with Little Big Bear, who is also by No Nay Never and currently dominates the ante-post betting for the Guineas.

For what it’s worth, there wouldn’t be much doubt about Little Big Bear staying a mile judged solely on the distaff of his pedigree, as discussed in this article by John Ingles.

Back to the Middle Park and The Antarctic ran another solid race to complete a one-two for O’Brien, hitting the frame behind Blackbeard for the second successive start at the top level having also finished third in the Prix Morny.

The Antarctic did his best work late on after a slow start had put him on the back foot, something which is becoming a habit in his races. He certainly doesn’t possess the gate speed of his illustrious full sibling Battaash, but there is no reason why he shouldn’t continue to be competitive in some good sprints next season if that trait can be ironed out.

Of the rest, Persian Force was ridden more aggressively than he had been when filling the runner-up spot in the Prix Morny, but the result was an even more emphatic beating at the hands of Blackbeard, even losing second close home as he tired.

Still, it’s hard to knock a horse who is yet to finish out of the first three in seven starts, particularly as he’s been campaigned exclusively at the top level since winning the July Stakes. His exploits the last twice pay a handsome compliment to Little Big Bear, who had him no less than seven lengths behind in the Phoenix.

By contrast, the form of the Gimcrack took a bit of a knock here as Marshman, runner-up at York, could finish only fifth having been sent off the 15/8 favourite. He was just edged out for fourth by Mischief Magic, who was parachuted in to replace Noble Style as the number one contender for Charlie Appleby after that horse's setback.

Mischief Magic had looked a smart colt in the making when completing a hat-trick in the Sirenia at Kempton on his previous start, but he seemingly just wasn't up to the task in these deeper waters, making a bit of late headway from mid-division but never threatening to get seriously involved.

By contrast, Marshman was always on the front end and pulled his chance away. This was the first backwards step in his career, but it might have been an opportunity missed in terms of him winning a big pot, a small, angular colt who wouldn't be an obvious type to step up again as a three-year-old.

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