Weights & Measures: Cheltenham Festival ratings

Sizing matters

Sizing John >>>> Up 3lb to 170
Minella Rocco >>>> Up 10lb to 166
Native River >>>> Down 1lb to 167
Djakadam >>>> Remains on 165
Saphir Du Rheu >>>> Up 6lb to 162
More Of That >>>> Up 2lb to 159

“If it looks like a duck, talks like a duck and walks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.”

Assigning official ratings to horses following high-profile races such as the Cheltenham Gold Cup can rarely be a simple task, but when you boil it down this year’s race was an absolute dream for the assessors and Phil Smith, head of handicapping for the BHA, was happy to admit as much.

“For two reasons the Gold Cup was quite an easy race to rate. First of all, I used Djakadam, who is just the most fantastic horse for a handicapper. He’s incredibly consistent and seems to run his race pretty much every time he turns up.

“I had him on 165 from Punchestown last April, I had him on 165 when he won in November, I had him 165 when he ran in the Lexus, so I thought there’s no reason to move his mark again.

“As a result of that we put Minella Rocco and Native River performing to 166 and then it’s a question of what you call three lengths. I thought Sizing John won well, I called it four pounds, which comes out at 170.”

On top of the quacking-ly consistent Djakadam running another super-solid race in fourth, the other dream scenario for Smith and his team at BHA headquarters is that in front of the Mullins runner were the three young improvers.

There were only three seven-year-olds declared for the 2017 Gold Cup, and they finished one, two, three. 

Sizing John, blessed with the raw speed that saw him finish second in last year’s Arkle, clearly relished the prevailing conditions and, as if to have bottled up all the frustration of being beaten by Douvan on seven occasions earlier in his career, let it all burst out in one brilliant display of pure class - two days after his nemesis had completely imploded on the same stage.

The most exciting news for Jessica Harrington and owners Alan and Ann Potts is that history whispers to us that 'speedy' Gold Cup winners don’t always just stop at one…

“Looking at the historical context, 170 is the same mark as Best Mate when he won his first Gold Cup as a seven-year-old,” added Smith.

“So if Sizing John can replicate what Best Mate did then we’ve got a fun few years to come.”

Kauto Star, who broke the mould having moved from Tingle Creek in winter to Gold Cup by the spring of 2007, was also seven when he first tasted Gold, as were L’Escargot and Arkle before him.

It would be remiss to go overboard following a Gold Cup that was unquestionably weaker for the enforced absence of Don Cossack, Thistlecrack and Coneygree, but for next year’s 8/1 second-favourite Sizing John, the signs are good.

As for the beaten horses, Minella Rocco will be preserved for another shot in 2018 despite being 8lb well-in for the Grand National (Smith had already tweaked his mark 2lb for Aintree), while it’s more than likely the Betfred Bowl for Native River (7/4 fav), so impressive at the meeting last season, and Punchestown for Djakadam.

“Native River is a slight anomaly as I’ve worked around him performing to 166 in the Gold Cup and while his handicap mark is actually 167, I think Minella Rocco is to some extent flattered having come from miles back whereas Native River was up there from the start. So I still have him a pound higher than Minella Rocco,” explained Smith.

“I’d be comfortable that if they met in a handicap that Native River would have to give 1lb to Minella Rocco, even though he was beaten by a short-head on the day.”

Smith is arguably more concerned with National-bound duo Saphir Du Rheu and More Of That.

“Saphir Du Rheu is 6lb well-in for the Grand National. He could also run in the Bowl of course. Horses rated around 162 have won the Bowl in the past, but what a great position to be in – they can run in the Grade One, or they can run in the National.

“We know he’s clearly good over three or three and a quarter miles but will he stay four and a quarter? It’s up to them to decide.

“I don’t know the constitution of Minella Rocco but connections obviously have good reason why they’ve taken him out. Purely from a handicapping point of view he’d have been well-in. But they’re clearly looking at his longevity and he had a tough race in the Gold Cup – coming from so far back to finish second.

“More Of That is also well-in and it looks like they’ll be getting him ready for the National now.”

Three of the last 10 Grand National winners were officially ahead of the handicapper and two of the last three most-favoured by the weights, namely Balthazar King and The Last Samuri, finished second in the race. The notable exception being The Druids Nephew, who fell when tanking along at the head of affairs in 2015.

A closed case

Smith, one of seven handicappers who worked on allotting marks for the Cheltenham Festival handicaps, had come under intense pressure from some quarters for what were perceived to be harshly high ratings for certain Irish runners, none more so than Presenting Percy.

From the same yard as last year’s Pertemps Final winner Mall Dini, and owned by the same people, he was bumped up to a BHA mark of 146 after winning the Fairyhouse qualifier by three and a quarter lengths from That’s A Wrap off his Irish Turf Club perch of 130, after which his jockey, Davy Russell, told At The Races that the hike in the weights all but ruled him out of even lining up in last week’s Final.

Line up he did, and the rest is history. 

Presenting Percy wasn’t the only wide-margin, Irish-trained winner, of course, with seven of the 10 handicap races throughout the week going to the Betbright Cup team skippered by Hector O hEochagain, two of which were owned by Gigginstown House Stud, whose Michael and Eddie O’Leary had blasted Smith for his treatment of possible Grand National contenders Don Poli, Empire Of Dirt and Outlander, who were scratched from the race at the first opportunity.

“All I’d like to say on the matter is that it’s a team of us who worked on the Cheltenham handicaps and the situation now, looking at the events of last week, is ‘case closed’.”

When pressed as to whether the likes of Presenting Percy, Road To Respect and Champagne Classic may ultimately have been under-estimated by the British assessors, Smith was equally indifferent.

“There weren’t too many people saying the Irish horses were well handicapped before the Festival, and it’s easy to say that after the event.”

Cause for optimism

Cause Of Causes >>>> Up 5lb to 155

Cause Of Causes was one of the biggest names to miss the cut for last year’s Grand National after bolting up in the Kim Muir, but not only is he comfortably inside the top 40 for this year’s race (18), he’s obviously in great heart, he's 5lb well-in and is also following a path that Smith is all too aware could be grossly under-estimated.

He said: “It’s very much a question of whether you believe the validity of cross-country form over Grand National fences, but the same trainer’s Silver Birch was 10lb well-in after winning the cross-country before winning here so there’s some 'previous' in that respect.

“Cause Of Causes ended the season last year on 155, but couldn’t get in the final field for the Grand National as he was rated much lower at the time the original weights were published. He’s dribbled back down to 150 following three or four nondescript performances this year.

“I’ve now put him back to 155 for that win in the Cross Country so he’s technically 5lb well-in for this year’s National, and with Minella Rocco now not running Cause Of Causes becomes a very interesting runner for the owner.”

The Ultima warrior

Un Temps Pour Tout >>>> Up 5lb to 160
The Young Master >>>> Down 2lb to 148

Un Temps Pour Tout roared back to his best with a fantastic performance under top weight to follow-up his victory from last year in the Ultima Handicap Chase.

His owners were left dreaming of a potential Gold Cup campaign next year in the immediate aftermath (partly down the incredibly infectious enthusiasm of post-race interviewer Lydia Hislop, no doubt) , but it’s hard to avoid the possibility of the National becoming a more realistic target for him when the dust settles on the season.

He’s up to a career-high mark of 160, which would put him only on the fringes of the Gold Cup places, while he looks an ideal type to creep down the ratings slightly before coming back to life next spring for Aintree.

In the more immediate future, The Young Master put the finishing touches to his National prep with an encouraging sixth in the race.

He followed home Un Temps Pour Tout and Holywell when third in this race last year before winning the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and, having had a spin around the course in the Becher before Christmas, the Waley-Cohens' investment has blatantly had the National as his main objective for a while. He’ll be one of the few runners in the race badly in at the weights having been dropped 2lb for his Cheltenham run.

“He’s a horse that has some really good form in the past,” said Smith. “Don’t forget horses have won the Grand National from the original mark I gave them, they’ve won when they’ve been well-in and they’ve won when they’ve been badly-in, so it’s a bit of a law unto itself. But it’s an interesting debating point.”

Others now ‘wrong’ at the National weights include Kim Muir seventh Doctor Harper, who has dropped 1lb, and fast-finishing Foxhunter Chase second Wonderful Charm, who will be competing from an 11lb lower mark in future handicaps, though Aintree’s Foxhunters’ had always seemingly made more appeal anyway.

Thrills and spills

Altior >>>> Down 2lb to 168
Cloudy Dream >>>> Up 6lb to 153
Charbel >>>> Up 7lb to 154

It probably says it all when it comes to what was expected of Altior that, despite storming to a sixth-length victory in the Racing Post Arkle, he’s been dropped 2lb in the official ratings.

It may not seem a great deal on the face of it but clearly the most significant element of that minor alteration is that Nicky Henderson’s star has gone from being rated higher than Sprinter Sacre at the equivalent point in his career, to being marginally lower.

“My colleague Graeme Smith asked what I thought about dropping him 2lb and while Altior was fantastic in the Arkle, he didn’t quite thrill me the same way as he had done in his previous race.

“Graeme has also looked at the historical context, which we’re always looking at, and where he is compared to Sprinter Sacre at the same stage, and I think he’s made the right call.”

Altior remains the highest-rated novice chaser and his lofty mark has resulted in eventual runner-up Cloudy Dream being dragged up into the low 150s, while any plans Kim Bailey may have had of capitalising on Charbel’s mark in a handicap appear to have been kiboshed, after he was smacked with a 7lb rise for falling when holding a half-length lead two out.

“Charbel went up 7lb as I don’t think that anybody believes he would have won the Arkle, but he probably would have finished second so we’ve slotted him in between,” said Smith.

Might, definitely, maybe

Might Bite >>> Up 7lb to 161
Whisper >>>> Up 4lb to 155

Now only 7lb behind stablemate Altior after a 9lb swing, Might Bite obviously gave the handicappers a few headaches with his incredible RSA Chase performance.

Perhaps even more dramatic than his stop-start-stop-start tease of Whisper on the run-in was the manner in which he initially swept to the front and poured it on from such an early stage in the race, seeing off the persistent yet futile challenges of Acapella Bourgeois and Alpha Des Obeaux before winning in spite of doing his damndest to fail.

Troubled by the same indisposition to final fences as that which occasionally befell Kauto Star at Christmas time, this is a 170 horse in the making, of that there is little doubt, and as is often the case with the very best thoroughbreds, the ever so slight kink in his mentality (a clue in the name) makes him all the more intriguing.

“Might Bite is in many ways one of the most interesting horses that ran at Cheltenham. The good thing is that at Newbury and Kempton the horsewalk is after the winning line so that was certainly beneficial there!” said Smith.

“I’ve got him running to 161 and that’s a really interesting figure in my view as it’s the same figure given to Denman after he won the RSA Chase, and the mark he won his first Hennessy off.

“I think Might Bite’s RSA was possibly a better race than Denman’s RSA so it was a really good performance. We had a long debate over what we should call the differential between him and Whisper and eventually we said that if they meet again in November at Newbury what differential would you want to think they both held an equal chance and we decided it was 6lb.

“That would be an interesting puzzle, but the honest answer is ‘Who could be sure?’”

If the race were tomorrow and both horses declared, it would appear a simple puzzle to me. 

Coming up, coming up, it’s D’Air

Buveur D’Air >>>> Up 10lb to 167
My Tent Or Yours >>>> Up 8lb to 162

Poor old My Tent. Hats off to those who spotted his potential to run another stormer in the Stan James Champion Hurdle way back when he was a 50/1 rag for the race, while others lobbying for a left-field County Hurdle bid weren’t far off the mark either as on this form he’d have been thrown in.

Instead it was to be a fourth Festival runners-up spot and a fifth Cheltenham second in total after following home The New One in December.

He reversed the form quite comfortably after travelling with his old zest on the drying ground but My Tent Or Yours couldn’t match Buveur D’Air’s pace as the younger legs brought home another one-two for team Henderson.

Smith commented: “I think the general view is that beforehand people thought this may not be the best Champion Hurdle but subsequent to the race people are saying perhaps it was a really good Champion.

“The winner had gone under the radar, to some extent, and he proved Nicky Henderson’s decision to switch from chasing to be correct.”

Hardly an orthodox preparation for the winner, but a blistering display on the day and a steep rise in the ratings as a result.

A mark of 167 is 5lb higher than that given to Annie Power for beating the same horse with the 7lb mares’ allowance 12 months ago, and sees him even-money favourite for the Aintree Hurdle ahead of the race's major disappointment Yanworth.

The move up to two and a half furlongs promises to help Alan King’s horse bridge the gap but he now has a bit to prove, especially on spring ground, having been eased 1lb to 163.

Harsh but fair

Gold Present >>>> Up 5lb to 142
Two Taffs >>>> Up 5lb to 142
Thomas Campbell >>>> Up 2lb to 139

One of the most difficult Cheltenham Festival races to weigh up, before and after it has been run, is the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase since there is so little between them in the weights and so few have fully shown their hand in the build-up to the big day.

Tully East, complete with Grade One form in the book, was a classy winner and the form looks set to stand up to close scrutiny, with the second and third of considerable interest going forward.

Gold Present hadn’t looked an easy ride when second to Frodon in the Pendil at Kempton but the return to a left-handed circuit almost paid off and he certainly jumped better than he had done on his two previous starts.

He was nothing flashy over hurdles but was made to jump fences and remains feasibly treated on a mark of 142, while the same can be said of Two Taffs.

Dan Skelton's runner appeared one of the more obvious plot horses in the race on the back of a quiet-ish effort in the Kingmaker and the tongue-tie, cheekpieces, and addition of Davy Russell in the saddle were all positives.

In the event he just got a bit too far back after being slightly hampered but a 5lb rise for him seems fairly manageable with further improvement to come.

Thomas Campbell is a handicap hurdler to monitor closely for the remainder of the season and a trip to Aintree looks the next port of call.

He didn’t have much cover early on in the Martin Pipe, racing on the outside of the eventual winner, and he appeared to over-race slightly, before losing his position going into the back straight. 

From that point on it was a really encouraging effort and none were finishing quite as well as he up the hill. This was his first go in a handicap and the experience looked like it might do him the power of good as he still looked inexperienced when first asked to go about his business.

Being nudged up a couple of pounds won’t do his chances of getting in the better races any harm and on this basis he’s potentially still a step or two ahead of the assessor from 139.