Chris Day looks ahead to the weekend action and has five early bets for the fifth and final day of Royal Ascot 2022.
Racing betting tips: Royal Ascot Saturday
1pt win Alflaila in 3.05 Ascot at 10/1 (Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. Solid Stone in 3.40 Ascot at 12/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Naval Crown in 4.20 Ascot at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Dubai Station in 5.00 Ascot at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Earlofthecotswolds in 6.10 Ascot at 14/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
The Jersey Stakes has its new slot on the Saturday card of Royal Ascot but that’s not changed the race's make-up with the usual mix of improving handicappers, hoses who failed to make the grade in the Guineas and unexposed maiden winners entered for the weekend.
It’s really tough to rate current favourite Noble Truth’s effort in winning the King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket in April for all he looked an easy winner, making all in a field of five runners which split into two, but the feeling is he’ll need to show a different dimension here and will find this race hard to dominate from the front.
William Haggas has Tiber Flow entered after finishing second to El Caballo on All Weather Finals Day before just holding on again over six furlongs in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury. On the first occasion it looked like another furlong was the answer but Newbury didn’t really endorse that view.
The other horse from a big stable at the head of the market is John and Thady Gosden’s unbeaten Samburu who won a traditionally strong York handicap off a mark of 88, and the runner-up did win a Listed race at Musselburgh on her next start which suggests he’ll be somewhere close to the standard required here.
Owen Burrows, who had the Coronation Cup winner at the Derby meeting and has a remarkable overall strike-rate, 20% at Ascot over the last five years for a £16.00 profit to a £1.00 level stake, has the fast-improving ALFLAILA entered and he’d be my pick after looking an improved model when winning here off a mark of 102 early last month.
The third there has acquitted himself well in a couple of strongly-contested handicaps since and that form more or less looks the most solid, with Dane O’Neill keeping the ride. The early 10/1 looks quite generous.
The Group Two Hardwicke Stakes looks at the mercy of St Leger winner Hurricane Lane, who also finished third in the Derby and Arc last season which definitely makes him the one to beat.
His trainer, though, has always said he needs give in the ground to be at his best and the forecast isn’t exactly pointing that way at the moment, plus he’s not been seen on the track since October.
There didn’t originally look to be much to oppose him with but the Derby-wining connections have supplemented Huxley Stakes winner SOLID STONE and I think he’s got a good profile for this.
The third and fourth from that race won on their next start and the runner-up, Certain Lad, has a chance on the opening day of the meeting at a big price.
He’s six now but knows where the winning posts is, finished second to Juan Elcano at this meeting last year, and is a really hard horse to pass under quick conditions so looks a nice each-way proposition at 12/1 in a race Sir Michael Stoute knows what it takes to win.
The bookies go 4/1 the field in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes with the market dominated by overseas raiders, most of whom are used to sprinting round bends in the southern hemisphere.
It’s also often been a race for horses dropping back in trip and in NAVAL CROWN Charlie Appleby could have a likely type.
He was runner-up in the Jersey here last year, winning the race on his side of the track, having finished fourth in the Guineas, but looked like the experiment of trying six furlongs in the Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan in March might open some new options.
He’s also entered in the July Cup so it seems like connections feel he’ll be heading that way and he has some very good form in the book for a 20/1 chance who seems impervious to ground conditions.
The day’s big handicap, the Wokingham Stakes, is as tricky as ever but Blackrod and Fresh are two with as good a chance as most at the head of the market.
Silver Samurai also travelled and quickened like a fast improver at Haydock last time although good to firm ground could be a question mark and I prefer a big outsider here.
Robert Cowell made his name training sprinters, very good ones at that, and in DUBAI STATION, who finished third in the Norfolk as a two-year-old, he could have the answer.
His now five-year-old was a snug winner of a very strong-looking Chelmsford handicap over this trip last time and he's likely to have his favoured ground at the weekend.
The horse has always been highly rated but could now be about to fulfil his potential with prices of 33/1 surely too big to last, certainly too big for me to resist each-way at this stage.
The week’s last race and longest in the calendar, the Queen Alexandra, could yet see Trueshan face the starter but the penalty structure will make this a colossal task even if he misses the Gold Cup on Thursday and he must be odds on to miss the meeting altogether.
Jumps trainers traditionally do well in big staying handicaps on the Flat and Nigel Twiston-Davies has aimed his All Weather Finals Day winner EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS at this prize ever since.
The eight-year-old has run well at the track over jumps but could be one of very few who will stay this trip, goes on decent ground and is still pretty unexposed on the Flat, which make 14/1 look an interesting early price to round off a brilliant week.
Published at 0920 BST on 14/06/22
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