5/1 and 3/1 winners for Chris Day at Cheltenham last week and he has five bets for Haydock and Ascot this weekend.
Recommended bets:
1pt win Kalashnikov 2.25 Haydock Saturday at 20/1
1pt win Third Wind 2.25 Haydock Saturday at 10/1
2pts win Dashel Drasher 1.50 Haydock at 5/1
1pt win Song For Someone in 2.40 Ascot Saturday at 8/1
1pt win Ibleo 3.15 Ascot Saturday at 5/1
The top class racing just keeps coming at this time of year and one of the best three mile chases of the season, the Betfair Chase, takes place at Haydock on Saturday.
Looking at the weather forecast the ground will be very testing and Lostintranslation, Bristol De Mai and Clan Des Obeaux, members of the sport’s elite who I’d unhesitatingly pay to watch, are bound to serve up a spectacle in our living rooms at 3pm.
From a betting perspective it’s of no interest but some races are so good you don’t need a bet to enjoy them and I can’t wait to watch the drama unfold.
The big betting race of the weekend, the Haydock Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle, due off at 2.25, is one of the signature races in the run up to Christmas and it will take a well-handicapped, tough animal to win this under the prevailing conditions.
Current favourite, Main Fact, is on a winning streak of five over hurdles and three on the Flat, all within this calendar year.
His mark has risen 43lbs in the process but there was no indication his run was about to come to an end at Uttoxeter in March when he cleared away to win a competitive looking heat in gruelling conditions over a half-mile shorter trip.
He’s still entered in the Fighting Fifth so he’s obviously thought to have further improvement in him and there’s not much not to like other than he’s stepping up in trip by half-a-mile and he’s currently chalked up around the 5/1 mark.
Fergal O’Brien’s six-year-old, Imperial Alcazar is just the type I associate with winning big races like this and he surely can improve past his mark of 140. He goes well fresh, loves soft ground and his head defeat by Protektorat at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day looks better with every race.
Former Weatherbys Champion Bumper winner Relegate finished fifth in the Pertemps Final from a two pounds higher mark and was eye-catching on her seasonal reappearance in a race she couldn’t win behind Sire Du Berlais and potential Saturday rival The Jam Man, who improved leaps and bounds last season over hurdles and comes here on the back of a facile success in the Troytown Chase.
He’s rated a stone higher over hurdles than he was for that win and needs to improve again here although it will be interesting to see which Irish trainer manages to snap up Robbie Power after his exploits on their runners at Cheltenham over the weekend.
Champion trainer, Paul Nicholls, saddles Cill Anna and Highland Hunter but I find it hard to make a case for either, West To The Bridge is talented but needs holding on to until the last minute which is difficult here and Portrush Ted, while very useful fresh and on soft ground, really needs to do it if he is to fulfil his trainer’s high opinion of him.
Hughie Morrison doesn’t train many jumpers but he’s a shrewdie with his handicappers and EBF Final winner THIRD WIND, who was unconvincing when tried over fences, looks nicely treated from the same mark as when finishing fourth at the Festival. He had a recent pipe opener at Newbury and should be ready to run for his life here.
He will be his trainer’s first runner at this track over jumps for over five years and will likely be ridden by Tom O’Brien, who won last weekend’s Paddy Power on Coole Cody and this race last year on Stoney Mountain.
The trainer and jockey combination show a healthy profit - as does O'Brien on all course rides. All in all Third Wind looks a bet at 10/1.
The other horse I can’t resist backing back over timber is former Betfair Hurdle winner KALASHNIKOV. He’s six pounds lower over hurdles than fences yet was still good enough to finish second on his last outing over the smaller obstacles in a Sky Bet Supreme and won a Grade One at Aintree in his novice season over fences.
He drew a blank last season but has always shaped like a stayer to me, loves soft ground and his best form is all on flat, left-handed tracks.
If he gets the run of the race out in front, which this track suits, then his superb jumping and high cruising speed should make it difficult for the others to get him off the bridle. In a season where plenty of big races have already gone to top weights, prices around the 20/1 mark are interesting enough to make him my second choice.
The other race with a nice shape for betting purposes is the Back and Lay on the Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase over two-and-a-half miles.
Itchy Feet is on a retrieval mission after fluffing his lines in the Old Roan but he looked like he’d need further to show his best and the rest are pretty closely matched.
Matt Griffiths and Jeremy Scott are not names on most people’s radar when assessing Saturday races but I reckon they have a smart and underrated prospect in DASHEL DRASHER who won here as a novice having run subsequent RSA Chase winner Champ to three-and-a-half lengths on his chase debut at Newbury.
A four-time hurdle winner a couple of seasons ago, he knows where the winning post is, jumps very neatly and could have a lot of improvement in him.
This is a good prize and I think there will have been a ring round the date on the trainer’s calendar for some time and there’s some 5/1 about with the sponsors for a horse with really very few question marks against him.
Down at Ascot, the Grade Two Coral Ascot Hurdle at 2.40 sees Cheltenham Festival winner Laurina make her debut for Paul Nicholls. She did have a disappointing time last season and despite getting the allowances, I can’t make a strong case to back her.
Likewise I wouldn’t go near Goshen at under 2/1 after a couple of shocking efforts on the Flat and the one I think is cast iron to give his running is SONG FOR SOMEONE for Tom Symonds, who has his string in belting order.
He won the rearranged Kingwell Hurdle at Kempton and his overall record has been of steady improvement, plus he loves right-handed tracks on soft ground and goes well fresh.
The 8/1 looks very appealing at this stage with doubts surrounding the well-being of the principals.
Thirty-five minutes later Magic Saint could bid to defy a penalty for his recent Cheltenham win, a race where he could be called the winner for most of the race. He ran OK here in a decent contest over further when he may not have stayed behind Hell’s Kitchen but I’m not sure he’s the type of horse who wants to be running twice in eight days and he’s already favourite.
A trainer who has always excelled with her chasers at Ascot is Venetia Williams, whose IBLEO bids to turn the tables on her narrow conqueror Amoola from the last meeting here.
I fancy him to do that quite comfortably as the winner had the advantage of a run under his belt and the selection travelled like a horse who is a bit better than his current rating.
Wins at Huntingdon and Wincanton show his fondness for right-handed tracks and the ground should hold no terrors either so he’s my selection at 5/1.
- Preview posted at 1000 GMT on 17/11/2020