Free horse racing tips: Welsh National at Chepstow plus Kempton

Racing betting tips: Saturday January 9

1pt win Shang Tang in 3.30 Kempton at 14/1

Already advised: 1pt e.w. Dominateur in 3.10 Chepstow at 16/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

There’s some quality jumps action scheduled for the weekend with a host of races saved from the abandoned meetings over the festive period due to go ahead at Chepstow, Kempton and Wincanton.

The big betting heat at Kempton is the Listed Unibet Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle run over two miles and five furlongs on ground currently described as soft.

Heading the market after his small-field Ascot win is the Philip Hobbs-trained Everglow. I find him difficult to rate on that performance although coming from the Hobbs yard you have to feel they think he’s on the right trajectory to run well here. After going well pre-Christmas the stable have been a little quieter of late and, as market leader, I’m happy to swerve him here.

The other horse at the front of the betting is One True King, a thoroughly likeable individual who has shown strong form at his level at Cheltenham during the Autumn and, as a decent bumper horse, should improve again for the extra yardage in Sunbury at the weekend.

His form from Leicester last time has been slightly let down although I do expect the runner up, Elysian Flame, to be winning races sooner rather than later off his current mark. He's one to consider for Nigel Twiston-Davies.

Nicky Henderson, who has a tremendous record at the course, has three runners entered with last season’s International Hurdle winner, Call Me Lord, enticingly handicapped off 151. Having been confined to Graded races ever since, he’s not really been showing the same level of form and he’s hard to fancy against a number of progressive rivals.

Henderson also has Champagne Platinum, who ran well in a hot Newbury handicap after failing to sparkle in novice chases last season, and Glynn, who is presumably considered better than his mark of 134 but didn’t exactly look primed for a return to top form when second to Ecco at Doncaster in December.

The stable have not been firing as we’d expect at this time of year though they have too many smart horses to remain out of form for long but I couldn’t construct a case for backing any at current prices.

In this race last year Debestyman looked to be the likely winner when tipping up at the last off a 6lb lower mark but has run well at Cheltenham this autumn and a good showing here would come as no surprise.

Milton Harris’ Jacamar has now won a couple of handicaps in the style of an improved performer this term and his performance at Wincanton last time suggested he is still ahead of the assessor after holding on from the Paul Nicholls-trained Southfield Harvest, with 24 lengths back to the third, and he ought to go well.

Collateral form lines from that race, however, suggest that Emma Lavelle may have a fast improving, leniently treated entry here in SHANG TANG, who comfortably beat Southfield Harvest by three lengths in an Ascot novice hurdle in November and was sent off 7/2 in the aforementioned Wincanton heat only to fall early on.

In a recent stable tour the trainer said she hopes the seven-year-old Shantou gelding will prove up to Graded company in the spring and has now had enough experience to ensure he will not be out of his comfort zone in these type of races, so his current 130 rating should prove workable.

There’s plenty of 14/1 available which looks like the best value in the market at this stage.

Chepstow stage the rescheduled Coral Welsh Grand National and the main protagonists from the original entry are engaged again.

Evan Williams has the favourite, Secret Reprieve, a last-time-out course winner, and he’s difficult to oppose on grounds other than price. A seven-year-old son of Flemensfirth, he looked full of class and stamina when sauntering home by 12 lengths that day and will surely take all the beating.

Course form is the outstanding factor on the CVs of previous winners of Wales’s premier race and, at 16/1, I believe DOMINATEUR offers the best value in the market from an each way perspective in a race he has been aimed at since winning twice on deep ground here last season.

Oliver Sherwood’s eight-year-old gelding warmed up for this in a Sandown Graduation race which he couldn’t win last time and, if not inconvenienced by the fortnight's delay, looks sure to run a big race. He was put up on these pages two weeks ago and those bets should still stand. Those yet to get involved can still take the same price with bet365 and the general 12/1 is perfectly fair, too.

Posted at 1950 GMT on 04/01/21

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.